科技型小微企业多维金融支持体系的完善——基于成长生命周期演进的视角

在后金融危机背景下我国科技型小微企业正经受着非常严峻的考验,解决科技型小微企业融资问题是一个迫在眉睫的课题。针对科技型小微企业在不同生命周期阶段具有不同的融资风险和融资需求的特点,我国实践上已经构建了与科技型小微企业生命周期相一致的金融支持体系,但是该体系仍然存在着商业银行金融服务不足、创业投资机制不健全、证券市场发展滞后等诸多问题。因此必须加强创业投资引导、拓展和创新商业银行金融业务、完善证券市场体系等,构建包括政府、银行、证券市场、民间资本在内的,涵盖科技型小微企业生命周期各阶段的多层次、多阶段的多维科技型小微金融支持模式,以适应科技型小微企业在不同生命周期阶段的融资需求。     

全真道圆明老人所述修性《十马图》试论

内丹修性，常用心猿意马为喻，其实早期是以牛为喻，并用牧牛来喻修心。用牧牛喻修心，最早出自小乘佛教经典，中国禅师由此而衍生了用《十牛图》来表示明心见性的修道过程。道教内丹学原与佛教无关，至北宋张伯端，开始引佛教禅宗明心见性来说修性，于是全真道士圆明老人也用《十马图》来喻修性。佛道二教的修性上，佛教爱用牧牛，道教则爱以心猿意马为喻。     

Bond Risk Premia Forecasting: A Simple Approach for Extracting Macroeconomic Information from a Panel of Indicators

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatility dynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approach is based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that can take into account the heteroskedasticity feature shown by most macroeconomic variables and relies on an iterated Kalman filter procedure. In simulations we show the unbiasedness of the proposed estimator and its superiority to different approaches introduced in the literature. Simulation results are confirmed in applications to real inflation data with the goal of forecasting long-term bond risk premia. Moreover, we find that the extracted level and conditional variance of the latent factor for inflation are strongly related to NBER business cycles.     

中国运输服务指数的编制及应用研究

借鉴美国运输服务指数编制方法,并结合中国交通运输业的现状特征,设计出了中国运输服务指数的编制方案,依据该方案计算得出2002年1月至2011年7月的货运服务指数、客运服务指数以及运输服务综合指数,通过与同期宏观经济景气指数中的一致性指数进行比对,得出货运服务指数为宏观经济的先行指标,客运服务指数为一致性指标的重要结论.     

Product value matrices help firms to focus their efforts

In management theory a gap seems to exist between consumer buying behaviour and the economic life cycles of products. This gap is the subject of this paper using product value matrices (PVMs). Brought together in this paper are some well-known theories dealing with consumer behaviour, buying behaviour and product life cycles (PLCs), in a manner that provides useful information to all firms. Too often it is found that these theories are elegant in isolation, but provide little help in focusing a company's efforts. Consumer behaviour has been researched for many decades, as has product life cycles, but the link between consumer buying behaviour and economic life cycles of products is mystical, with most chief executive officers (CEOs) believing it occurs like magic. The paper initially develops frameworks describing the economic life cycles of products and consumer buying behaviour. The paper then links the frameworks with the product value matrix and illustrates how they can be used in focusing a firm's efforts.     

我国发展燃气轮机的可行道路

先进燃气轮机是 2 1世纪动力设备的核心 ,也是标志一个国家工业基础先进程度的关键技术。我国在经济、技术、科学、环境标准、金融全球化的条件下 ,要不要搞燃气轮机 ?有没有可能搞燃气轮机 ?怎样才能把燃气轮机搞上去 ?这是我国动力行业 ,乃至于全国都关注的问题     

《关于一类捕食系统极限环的唯一性》一文证明的错误

本文指出了《关于一类捕食系统极限环的唯一性》一文证明中的错误。     

Intergenerational Considerations Affecting the Future of Nuclear Power: Equity as a Framework for Assessing Fuel Cycles

Alternative fuel cycles are being considered in an effort to prolong uranium fuel supplies for thousands of years to come and to manage nuclear waste. These strategies bring with them different benefits and burdens for the present generation and for future generations. In this article, we present a method that provides insight into future fuel cycle alternatives and into the conflicts arising between generations within the framework of intergenerational equity. A set of intersubjective values is drawn from the notion of sustainable development. By operationalizing these values and mapping out their impacts, value criteria are introduced for the assessment of fuel cycles, which are based on the distribution of burdens and benefits between generations. The once‐through fuel cycle currently deployed in the United States and three future fuel cycles are subsequently assessed according to these criteria. The four alternatives are then compared in an integrated analysis in which we shed light on the implicit tradeoffs made by decisionmakers when they choose a certain fuel cycle. When choosing a fuel cycle, what are the societal costs and burdens accepted for each generation and how can these factors be justified? This article presents an integrated decision‐making method, which considers intergenerational aspects of such decisions; this method could also be applied to other technologies.     

Research note: What happened to time use during the Global Financial Crisis?

This research note explores the trade‐offs between various categories of time use during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2007 to 2009, using continuous time use data for the United States adult population. Estimates of the annual average time per person devoted to specific tasks, at the peak of the economic boom (2007) are compared to time spent in those same the bottom of the recession (2009). Two frameworks are used in the analysis – the first is the production, consumption and investment categories of macroeconomics; the second is the stages of the human life course from living in younger households without children, through the middle stage of living in households with children, and finally the stage of older households again without children. The note highlights the similarities and differences in the behaviour responses to the GFC of men and women in the United States. It is fairly clear that the decline in market work was accompanied by a decline in household work – thus contradicting a contra‐cyclical hypothesis of movements between these two production spheres. And, although there were significant increases in consumption time, investment time in education increased proportionally more.     

一类生化反应系统的动力学性态

讨论了一类生化反应系统的动力学性态。对该系统的平衡点进行了局部分析,证明了该系统至少存在一个极限环,并给出了大致的相图。