Critical Realism and Causality: Tracing the Aristotelian Legacy

Rom Harré's generative account of causality has been drawn on heavily by advocates of critical realism. Yet Harré argues that critical realists often exaggerate the extent to which powerful causal explanations of social phenomena can be developed. Certain proponents of critical realism have responded to Harré's criticisms by suggesting that it is useful to consider the relevant issues in relation to the familiar Aristotelian classification of four causes. In this paper I contribute to this debate and pursue a similar strategy. The paper adds to existing contributions in two ways. Firstly, I outline how Harré sees his generative account of causality as linking up with Aristotelian themes. It emerges that Harré at times conceives of his generative theory as part of an alternative to the Aristotelian system while at other times he draws connections between it and a reformulated account of formal causality. Secondly, I argue that when we consider the positions of Harré and proponents of critical realism on the scope of causal explanation in the social realm in relation to the interpretation of final causes offered by another philosopher profoundly influenced by the Aristotelian tradition, namely Charles Peirce, we can see both as limited in certain respects.     

也谈刑法因果关系的正确认定

因果关系理论是当今世界刑法的一大难题，因此一直是刑法学理论研究领域争议颇多的问题，近年来，我国刑法学者也尝试从另外一些角度来研究该问题，并且取得了一定的成效。本文也力图从分析刑法因果关系的几个特点入手，以期正确认定刑法因果关系。     

中国财政支农支出对第一产业增加值的影响研究：1952—2006

分析了1952—2006年中国财政支农支出的变化趋势，并且对第一产业增加值状况进行研究。在此基础上，运用VAR模型和Granger因果关系检验理论对中国财政支农支出对第一产业的带动作用进行了实证研究。结论表明，1952—2006年，中国财政支农支出明显促进第一产业的发展，财政支农支出冲击对第一产业有较强的正向作用，且这种积极影响呈递增趋势。中国财政支农支出对第一产业增加值的贡献份额持续上升，最高达26．7％。从因果关系检验来看，二者之间有显著的双向因果关系。     

外商直接投资与区域经济增长--中国20世纪90年代时间序列数据计量分析及格兰杰因果关系检验

从对中国东中西部的时间序列数据计量结果看,三个地区的本期FDI对经济增长均有显著影响;三个地区的本期GDP对FDI均有着显著影响.从对上海和河北两省市时间序列数据的计量结果看,上海的FDI对经济增长有显著促进作用,河北的情况不显著;上海的经济增长对FDI有显著促进作用,河北的情况也不明朗.对东中西部时间序列数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,在东部地区和中部地区,FDI是经济增长的原因;GDP也是FDI增长的原因,二者构成Granger意义上的因果关系;在西部地区,FDI与GDP还不能构成这种因果关系.     

东北三省GDP关系实证研究

GDP是反映一国或一个地区经济发展状况的综合统计指标,为了准确把握东北三省之间的内在经济联系、促进东北三省区域经济协调发展,必须对东北三省GDP关系进行深入研究。收集1978—2006年东北三省GDP数据,对相关经济数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验,得出东北三省经济具有相似性和互补性的结论。根据实证分析结果,提出东北三省应加强经济合作的政策建议。     

价格国际传递链中的“中国因素”研究 ──基于非线性Granger因果检验

 传统的Granger因果检验方法在现代经济学研究领域中得到了广泛的应用,然而,近年来的研究却发现,传统的Granger因果检验方法可能因忽略变量间的非线性关系而导致结论出现显著偏差。有鉴于此,本文首次采用最新发展的非线性Granger因果检验方法——Diks和Panchenko（2006）提出的非参检验方法,对中国在价格国际传递链中的地位与作用展开非线性研究。研究结果表明,通货膨胀在国际传递过程中呈现出显著的非线性动态变化趋势,而进一步的分析则发现在价格水平非线性传递中,作为世界第一大经济实体的美国发挥着主导作用,而中国对贸易伙伴国物价水平的冲击则十分微小,中国既无输出通货紧缩,也无输出通货膨胀,与此同时,本文还发现,现阶段中国物价水平呈现明显的外部“输入性”特征,因此,为了实现物价的长期稳定,我们必须在较好地应对国际冲击的同时,防范“输入型通货紧缩”与“输入型通货膨胀”的引发风险。     

内蒙古经济增长与居民储蓄、投资关系动态分析——基于VAR模型的实证研究

我们利用1985-2007年的时间序列数据,基于宏观和动态的视角,对我国居民消费及其影响因素进行了实证分析。Johansen协整检验的结果说明我区经济增长与居民储蓄、投资关系之间存在一种长期均衡关系。向量自回归VAR模型的动态分析表明,我区经济增长对自身的冲击产生持续响应,经济增长呈现出一定程度的＂惯性＂特征;投资对GDP的冲击是正向的,居民储蓄对GDP的短期影响不明显,但长期为反向。通过分析揭示了投资是内蒙古近些年经济快速发展的主要动力。     

A statistical semantics for causation

We propose a model-theoretic definition of causation, and show that, contrary to common folklore, genuine causal influences can be distinguished from spurious covariations following standard norms of inductive reasoning. We also establish a sound characterization of the conditions under which such a distinction is possible. Finally, we provide a proof-theoretical procedure for inductive causation and show that, for a large class of data and structures, effective algorithms exist that uncover the direction of causal influences as defined above.     

我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的实证分析

为了协调我国人口就业与不同产业经济增长的关系,对1978～2005年期间我国的人口就业与不同产业经济增长之间进行了协整分析,得出我国人口就业与第二、第三产业经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系;同时构建模型对我国不同产业的GDP与就业人数进行了回归分析,利用我国不同产业的GDP就业弹性,比较分析了我国不同产业对就业吸纳作用的差异;以及利用得出的结论提出保持适度的经济增长,进行产业结构调整,扩大劳务输出等政策建议是缓解和扩大我国人口就业的必然途径。     

Common methodological mistakes

For scientific discoveries to be valid—whether in theory or empirically—a phenomenon must be accurately described: The scientist must use appropriate counterfactuals and eliminate competing explanations. Empirical work must also use an appropriate design and method, and empirical claims made about the phenomenon must be correctly characterized. Moreover, valid empirical discoveries must be reliable in the sense that scientists who reexamine the data must be able to reproduce the finding or to replicate the effect from data gathered in a similar context. Only discoveries adhering to the above criteria can be scientifically informative, serve as building blocks for theory, or have policy implications. Unfortunately, as several recent surveys of the literature show, much of the published works in the management and applied psychology fields are uninformative; contributing reasons include several intractable problems in the study design and analysis as well as the failure of the field to adopt open science practices. Against this backdrop, we identify common methodological mistakes made in applied work. We group these mistakes into three major categories: (a) study design and data collection (e.g., fit between hypotheses and methods, design, measurement, open science, literature reviews), (b) data analysis (e.g., data preprocessing, choice of estimators, analysis of data, issues concerning endogeneity, and use of instrumental variables), and (c) diagnostics, inferences, and reporting. We also explain how to avoid these issues, so that published work makes for a useful contribution to the scientific record.