美国2000年人口普查结果初析

美国２０００年人口普查初步结果已于２０００年１２月底公布。从公布的初步结果看到，美国人口在９０年代出现了很多变化，这些变化也多是历史演变趋势的继续。根据美国人口统计局从去年底至今年４月初陆续公布的数据和报告，可以分析出９０年代美国人口的最新变化。     

A first look at the 21st Century: Census 2000

This paper examines the initial results from Census 2000. It focuses onpopulation growth and distribution, and the five populationcharacteristics from the 100-percent data: age, sex, Hispanic origin, race, and householdrelationship. It explores emerging trends within an historical and global context.     

从“五普”数据看甘肃人口老龄化问题

本文根据“五普”资料,分析了甘肃省人口老龄化问题,阐述了其形成原因并提出了相应对策。     

The American Community Survey in counties with “seasonal” populations

The U.S. Census Bureau designed the American Community Survey (ACS) to provide annual estimates of social and economic characteristics for states, counties, municipalities, census tracts, and block groups. Because of its April 1 reference date, in northern nonmetropolitan counties with substantial seasonal population fluctuations the decennial census provides a statistical representation of the demographic and social characteristics of the population at a time when the population is close to its annual minimum. The year-round monthly ACS sample survey has the potential to provide local communities with an unprecedented understanding of the average population characteristics over the course of a year. In the future, the ACS even has the potential for providing social and economic characteristics of the population by season. This paper examines four ACS pilot data collection counties, Oneida and Vilas Counties in northern Wisconsin, and Lake and Flathead Counties in northwest Montana. We hypothesize that the ACS will reflect a resident population over the course of the year that is different from the traditional April 1 decennial census population. While the ACS holds much promise, our research uncovered some sampling problems that are not yet fully resolved. In addition, our analysis was not able to examine ACS estimates for minor civil divisions (MCDs), which are functioning governmental units in many states. The fact that these MCDs often have very small populations, together with the fact that estimated standard errors at the much larger census tract level in these counties are disconcertingly large, raises (currently unanswerable) questions concerning the eventual statistical quality of ACS estimates for small MCDs. Consequently, the adequacy of the ACS as a replacement for the census long form may depend on the ability of the Census Bureau to effectively address the concerns presented in this analysis.     

从人口普查看美国200余年社会政治的变化

自 1790年到 2 0 0 0年 ,美国每隔十年就进行一次人口普查。本文根据美国人口普查的历史资料和 2 0 0 0年人口普查的最新资料 ,对 2 0 0余年来美国社会经济及政治的变化进行了分析。     

The Hispanic population: 1990–2000 growth and change

Data sources indicate that there were significant changes in the Hispanic populationbetween 1990 and 2000. Using short-form data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses,we explore changes in the size and distribution of the Latino population. The mostimportant shifts in the Hispanic population are the continued increase of the Latinopopulation in the United States, the significant growth of Hispanic population whoidentify as `other' Latino, and the growing importance of the Midwest and South aspopular receiving areas for Latinos. Additionally, our comparison of householdcomposition over the ten-year period shows little change. We offer potentialexplanations, both substantive and methodological, for these important transitionsin the Latino population over the decade.     

Coverage of the population in Census 2000: Results from Demographic Analysis

Since the 1960 Census, Demographic Analysis (DA) has been used by the Census Bureau to evaluate the coverage of the population. Administrative statistics on births, deaths, immigration and Medicare enrollments as well as estimates of legal emigration and net undocumented immigration are used to produce demographic analysis estimates of the population for the census date. These estimates are compared to the Census 2000 data to evaluate coverage in the census. The results are also compared to measures of undercount obtained from dual system estimation. The DA measures substantial reduction in net undercount in Census 2000 compared to 1990. The reductions occur among all demographic categories: all broad age groups, males and females, Blacks and Non-Blacks.     

低生育率是中国的福音?——从第六次人口普查数据看中国人口发展现状与前景

本文利用全国第六次人口普查数据,对2000-2010年间妇女生育率进行了估算,考察与分析了中国人口发展的现状与前景。研究表明:中国妇女生育率早已降至1.5左右的极低水平,生育率过低不是中国的福音,如果任其发展,中国可持续发展的前景将不堪设想。重新审视中国面临的人口形势与人口问题,调整现行生育政策是避免中国未来出现严重人口危机的必然的战略选择。     

现代人口调查的格局与发展

在概要评述现代人口调查的三种主要形式——普查、登记制度和抽样调查的基础上,比较详细地介绍了一种人口调查的新模式——美国社区调查（ACS）的由来和特点,并指出两个值得我国借鉴的人口调查改革取向：基于社区的抽样调查和连续调查。