中国的返迁人口:基于五普数据的分析

本文利用我国2000年第五次人口普查的数据,估计返迁人口的规模并描述返迁人口的人口社会特征及其与现在的迁移人口与非迁移常住人口的差异,从个人因素、居住地类型以及家庭户特征三个方面分别讨论了返迁的决定因素。并讨论了本文的一些缺陷及今后的研究方向。     

A controlled donor imputation system for a one-number census

Summary. The 2001 UK census was a one-number census. An integral part of such a process has been the creation of a transparent census database that has been adjusted for the underenumeration in the 2001 census. The methodology for creating this database is based on a controlled donor imputation system that imputes individuals and households estimated to have been missed in the census. This paper describes this methodology and provides results from a statistical assessment of its performance using data that realistically simulate the census process.     

Dependence in the 2001 one-number census project

Summary.  The one-number census approach was developed by the Office for National Statistics to adjust the counts from the 2001 census of England and Wales for underenumeration. The method is underpinned by an assumption of independence between the count of the population that was given by the 2001 census and the count that was given by the Census Coverage Survey. Some dependence was, however, detected, and the paper describes the strategy that was used to measure dependence and to adjust the 2001 census population estimates.     

对我国人口迁移信息采集的评述——基于全国人口普查及1%人口抽样调查

通过对历次全国性人口调查中人口迁移信息收集活动的分析发现:人口迁移概念的界定逐步明确,已形成一致的统计口径;在人口信息资料收集中,有关人口迁移内容所占份额越来越大,资料越来越翔实;对于如何收集人口迁移信息在认识上也逐步明确。人口迁移信息资料的丰富与发展,反映了我国统计制度的发展与完善。     

中国城镇住房拆除规模及其影响因素研究

本文基于人口普查数据,首次对全国和城市层面城镇地区住房拆除规模进行定量测算。结果显示2001-2010年间全国层面城镇住房累计拆除规模达到0.33亿套,由此引发的被动需求对同期中国城镇新增住房需求的贡献度高达41.10%,成为推动该时期住房市场快速发展的重要因素之一。在此基础上,由283个地级以上城市住房拆除率的差异切入,对影响城镇住房拆除规模的主因进行理论和实证研究,发现住房建筑质量、土地开发强度与城市经济发展水平是影响城镇住房拆除规模的关键因素。预测显示,由于整体建筑质量及城市经济发展水平提升,2011-2020年间全国范围内城镇住房拆除规模将呈稳中趋降的趋势。这在一定程度上将降低未来的新增住房需求,成为住房市场转入“新常态”的原因之一。     

周期性普查数据质量评估方法与适用性研究

从普查数据准确性检验到普查数据误差测量,有关周期性普查数据质量的评估研究随着人们对普查数据生产过程的认识而不断发展与完善,先后发展出包括人口统计分析、数据一致性检验、行政记录审核和事后质量抽查等技术思路,包含多种具体的评估方法。根据评估依据与普查系统的关系,这些评估方法可被归纳为内部评估、外部评估以及事后抽查等三种评估途径。通过对每种评估方法特点及其适用性的分析,有利于进一步深化我国周期性普查数据质量评估的理论研究。     

Returns on education amongst men in England and Wales: The impact of residential segregation and ethno-religious background

Individuals’ occupational and educational attainment is influenced by their ethnicity, religion and colour in the UK and elsewhere. In this paper, we analyse the impact of ethnicity, religion and colour along with residential segregation¹ and socio-economic deprivation on returns to education for men in England and Wales. We analyse the 2001 UK census data by employing multi-level logistic regression models. It is found that non-White groups including Christian Black-African, UK born Sikh-Indians and South Asian Muslims are found to suffer an ethnic penalty compared to Christian White-British. While there is evidence to suggest that Muslim men may experience a greater penalty compared to some non-Whites other non-Muslim groups too face ethno-religious penalties, sometimes even more severely such as in the case of Christian Black-Africans. Socio-economic difficulties faced by ethnic minorities are also linked to spatial segregation only when associated with high levels of area deprivation. This suggests that what matters may not be segregation per se, but whether or not it is associated with deprivation.     

Assessing post-census state poverty estimates

While the decennial census provides poverty figures for states and other subnational geographic units every ten years, their utility declines over the course of a decade. Consequently, there is growing interest in producing post-census estimates for a variety of indicators. This study extends recent efforts to estimate post-census poverty figures for states by producing such estimates using a multiple regression approach. The accuracy of the multiple regression estimates along with recently produced estimates from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are evaluated relative to the decennial census. The mean absolute percentage point error (MAPPE) using the ratio-correlation technique (1.56 percentage points) was somewhat higher than the MAPPE of 1989 CPS (1.37 percentage points) and an average of 1988–1990 CPS data (1.15 percentage points). However, a simple regression technique using data from 1979 to estimate poverty in 1989 produced a set of estimates where the MAPPE (1.37 percentage points) is nearly as accurate as the single-year CPS estimates. Estimates which average regression estimates and CPS-based estimates are more accurate than either regression or CPS estimates used alone. Several suggestions are offered for improving regression estimates.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, 1–4 April 1993, Cincinnati, OH, USA.     

Combining editing and imputation methods: an experimental application on population census data

Summary.  Features of census data make the editing and imputation phase a complex matter. Complex editing and imputation tasks can be tackled by dividing the editing and imputation process into subphases characterized by different problems, and finding appropriate solutions for each of them. An experimental application of the approach of combining different currently used methods for the editing and imputation of population census data is presented.     

An alternative view of the 2001 census and future census taking

Summary.  The 2001 census in the UK asked for a return of people 'usually living at this address'. But this phrase is fuzzy and may have led to undercount. In addition, analysis of the sex ratios in the 2001 census of England and Wales points to a sex bias in the adjustments for net undercount—too few males in relation to females. The Office for National Statistics's abandonment of the method of demographic analysis for the population of working ages has allowed these biases to creep in. The paper presents a demographic account to check on the plausibility of census results. The need to revise preliminary estimates of the national population over a period of years following census day—as experienced in North America and now in the UK—calls into question the feasibility of a one-number census. Looking to the future, the environment for taking a reliable census by conventional methods is deteriorating. The UK Government's proposals for a population register open up the possibility of a Nordic-style administrative record census in the longer term.