Proposals for 2001 samples of anonymized records: An assessment of disclosure risk

In 1991 Marsh and co-workers made the case for a sample of anonymized records (SAR) from the 1991 census of population. The case was accepted by the Office for National Statistics (then the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys) and a request was made by the Economic and Social Research Council to purchase the SARs. Two files were released for Great Britain—a 2% sample of individuals and a 1% sample of households. Subsequently similar samples were released for Northern Ireland. Since their release, the files have been heavily used for research and there has been no known breach of confidentiality. There is a considerable demand for similar files from the 2001 census, with specific requests for a larger sample size and lower population threshold for the individual SAR. This paper reassesses the analysis of Marsh and co-workers of the risk of identification of an individual or household in a sample of microdata from the 1991 census and also uses alternative ways of assessing risks with the 1991 SARs. The results of both the reassessment and the new analyses are reassuring and allow us to take the 1991 SARs as a base-line against which to assess proposals for changes to the size and structure of samples from the 2001 census.     

Are there interregional differences in the response of cigarette smoking to state cigarette excise taxes in the USA? Exploratory analysis

Within the context of the period fixed-effects model, this study uses a 2002–2009 state-level panel data set of the USA to investigate the relative impact of state cigarette excise taxation across the nation in reducing cigarette smoking. In particular, by focusing upon the state cigarette excise taxation levels within each of the nine US Census Divisions, this study investigates whether there are inter-regional differences in the rate of responsiveness of cigarette consumption to increased state cigarette taxes. The initial empirical estimates reveal that although the per capita number of packs of cigarettes smoked annually is a decreasing function of the state cigarette excise tax in all nine Census Regions, the relative response of cigarette smoking to state cigarette tax increases varies considerably from one region to the next. Reinforcing this conclusion, in one specification of the model, the number of packs of cigarettes smoked in response to a higher state cigarette tax is statistically significant and negative in only eight of the nine Census Divisions. Furthermore, when cigarette smoking is measured in terms of the percentage of the population classified as smokers, interregional differentials in the response of smokers to higher state cigarette taxes are much greater. Thus, there is evidence that cigarette excise taxation exercises rather different impacts on the propensity to smoke across Census Regions.     

THE POTENTIAL OF INTEGRATED POPULATION MODELLING†

Recent work has shown how the Kalman filter can be used to provide a simple framework for the integrated analysis of wild animal census and mark‐recapture‐recovery data. The approach has been applied to data on a range of bird species, on Soay sheep and on grey seals. This paper reviews the basic ideas, and then indicates the potential of the method through a series of new applications to data on the northern lapwing, a species of conservation interest that has been in decline in Britain for the past 20 years. The paper analyses a national index, as well as data from individual sites; it looks for a change‐point in productivity, corresponding to the start of the decline in numbers, considers how to select appropriate covariates, and compares productivity between different habitats. The new procedures can be applied singly or in combination.     

中国1982年后人口普查和抽样调查中死亡漏报的估计——基于Bayesian分层回归模型

利用Bayesian分层回归模型估计中国1982年后历次人口普查和抽样调查的死亡漏报率及其随时间的变化。结果表明:0岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化具有明显的阶段性,而1～4岁死亡漏报率随时间的变化趋势不明显;全年龄、5～14岁和15～59岁、60～89岁和90岁及以上死亡漏报率随时间的变化基本近似且同样具有阶段性。受漏报原因和不同时期社会背景的影响,女性1～4岁的死亡漏报率不一定低于0岁的死亡漏报率。人口普查成人阶段各年龄死亡漏报率差别较大,而人口抽样调查则较为一致。2000年人口普查男性和2010年全人口90岁及以上死亡率偏低是由比较严重的死亡漏报造成。死亡漏报对预期寿命计算误差的影响因年龄而异,二者关系在婴幼儿中较弱,其余年龄死亡漏报和预期寿命误差存在显著线性正相关。     

中国少数民族人口布局的变迁及其诱因分析

在少数民族人口增幅长期高于汉族人口的情况下,1990-2000年间中国少数民族人口的地域分布也发生了显著变化,出现了聚居地少数民族人口持续增长、欠发达民族地区人口外流、发达地区少数民族高增长等众多趋势.造成这些变化的诱因,显然是与经济、交通、区位这三大因素有密切关系.     

Social Security in Italy

The United States is confronting two simultaneous demographic shifts with profound implications for public policy: population aging and increasing diversity. These changes are accelerating during a dramatic economic downturn, placing entitlement reform prominently on the national policy agenda. Using decennial census data from 2000, this paper examines the nexus of these trends by examining characteristics of Latino baby boomers. In the census data, Latinos constituted 10% of the 80 million boomers; roughly one-third of Latino boomers (37%) were born in the United States or abroad to a U.S. parent; 6% were born in a U.S. territory; 21% were naturalized citizens; and 36% were noncitizens. Compared to non-Latinos, Latino baby boomers had lower levels of education, home ownership, and investment income and higher rates of material hardship and poverty; however, there was considerable variation based on citizenship status. A better understanding of Latino baby boomers will help policy makers anticipate the retirement needs of baby boomers as the United States prepares for the aging of a racially and ethnically diverse population.     

1990年代中国出生性别比:究竟有多高?

当1990年代各种人口调查"过低的"生育水平难以置信时,其"过高的"出生性别比数据却被广泛接受。本文的主要目的是通过对2000年人口普查出生数据漏报的性别差异的分析,利用教育统计数据,重新估计2000年及90年代的出生性别比。结果表明我国实际的出生性别比并不像2000年普查数据反映的那样严重偏高。我国实际的出生性别比和低年龄组性别比要比普查反映的水平低5～9个百分点。1990年代在我国出生性别比偏高的部分中,女婴漏报的作用高达50%以上。本文还根据2000年普查千分之一抽样数据,考察了出生性别比的社会经济差异。     

The case for small area microdata

Summary.  Census data are available in aggregate form for local areas and, through the samples of anonymized records (SARs), as samples of microdata for households and individuals. In 1991 there were two SAR files: a household file and an individual file. These have a high degree of detail on the census variables but little geographical detail, a situation that will be exacerbated for the 2001 SAR owing to the loss of district level geography on the individual SAR. The paper puts forward the case for an additional sample of microdata, also drawn from the census, that has much greater geographical detail. Small area microdata (SAM) are individual level records with local area identifiers and, to maintain confidentiality, reduced detail on the census variables. Population data from seven local authorities, including rural and urban areas, are used to define prototype samples of SAM. The rationale for SAM is given, with examples that demonstrate the role of local area information in the analysis of census data. Since there is a trade-off between the extent of local detail and the extent of detail on variables that can be made available, the confidentiality risk of SAM is assessed empirically. An indicative specification of the SAM is given, having taken into account the results of the confidentiality analysis.     

OPTIMIRUS. Simulating Population Change in the Russian Far East

This article examines the population trends in the cities of the Russian Far East between the two census years 1989 and 2002. Three geographical models – Rank-Size Rule, Temperature per Capita and a simple gravity model – are used to describe the direction of these population trends. An economic efficiency function is constructed from the three models to simulate an ideal population distribution for the Russian Far East. The heart of the simulation is a conjugate gradient optimisation of the economic efficiency function. The results serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and serve as an important backdrop to discussions of current population trends and as basis for recommendations concerning future changes in the spatial distribution of population in the region.Mueller, K., et Bradshaw M. J., 2006. OPTIMIRUS. Une simulation des variations de population dans l’Extrême-Orient russe. Revue européenne de démographie, 22:105–126.     

Age-sex structure of the United States in 2000: Early results from Census 2000

Recently data on age and sex for the United States have beenreleased in the Census 2000 data product Summary File 1. This paper presents someearly analysis on the shape of the age and sex structure from Census 2000 data throughstatistics and graphics on national and sub-national levels. Also highlighted are comparisonswith data from the 1990 census.