基于区间灰数与离散灰数双重异构序列的预测建模方法研究

系统变化的复杂性导致了系统行为数据的不确定性与异构性,面向多源信息的数据集结导致了表征系统变化规律的灰色异构时序数据的产生。对面向区间灰数与离散灰数的双重异构数据序列预测建模方法展开研究,通过对区间灰数均匀分割处理,得到与离散灰数灰元数量相等的次级区间灰数,进而实现了灰色异构数据的"同质化"转换;在此基础上构建了面向异构数据序列的灰色预测模型,并应用该模型实现了大桥沉降量的有效模拟与准确预测。研究成果对拓展灰色预测模型应用范围具有积极意义。     

Non-ignorable missing covariate data in survival analysis: a case-study of an International Breast Cancer Study Group trial

Summary.  Non-ignorable missing data, a serious problem in both clinical trials and observational studies, can lead to biased inferences. Quality-of-life measures have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. However, these measures are often incompletely observed, and investigators may suspect that missing quality-of-life data are likely to be non-ignorable. Although several recent references have addressed missing covariates in survival analysis, they all required the assumption that missingness is at random or that all covariates are discrete. We present a method for estimating the parameters in the Cox proportional hazards model when missing covariates may be non-ignorable and continuous or discrete. Our method is useful in reducing the bias and improving efficiency in the presence of missing data. The methodology clearly specifies assumptions about the missing data mechanism and, through sensitivity analysis, helps investigators to understand the potential effect of missing data on study results.     

基于改进D—S证据理论的TOPSIS模型在科技奖励评价中的应用

针对科技奖励评价的特点,根据改进D—S证据合成规则,将专家的评价指标值转化为指标的综合得分并形成决策矩阵;结合TOPSIS模型求解理想解和负理想解,计算距离和贴近度,对各评价项目进行综合排名。实证结果表明：该模型能够很好地解决科技奖励评价过程中的不确定性问题,为科技奖励综合评价提供了一种新的思路。     

基于核和灰度的双重异构数据序列预测建模方法研究

通过建立灰色异构数据"核"序列的DGM(1,1)模型,实现双重异构数据"核"的预测;以"核"为基础、以双重异构数据序列中较大的区间灰数信息域作为预测结果的信息域,构建基于区间灰数与实数的双重异构数据序列灰色预测模型,有效地将灰色预测模型建模对象从"同质数据"拓展至"双重异构数据"。研究成果对丰富灰色预测模型理论体系具有积极意义。     

西部山区农民易地扶贫搬迁意愿的影响因素

从现在到2020年是打赢脱贫攻坚战的关键时期,从农民自身角度研究搬迁意愿,对加快实施易地扶贫移民搬迁具有重要意义。研究依据西方微观人口迁移理论：地方效用理论、计划行为理论和效价[CD*2]期望理论,整合构建了中国国情下由政府引导的易地扶贫搬迁意愿的理论分析框架。以陕南移民搬迁为例,在验证性因子分析的基础上,运用有序Logit模型和最优尺度模型对理论假设进行检验。结果显示：①心理因素、政策和预期因素、环境因素对搬迁意愿具有显著影响 ②控制变量中家庭人口数、非农劳动力比例、家庭成员求学婚姻等控制变量与搬迁意愿显著相关;③没有搬迁的主要的顾虑是搬迁后找不到工作、城镇生活成本高、搬迁成本高、搬迁后的适应等问题。研究建议政府部门在搬迁补助、就业安置、搬迁后适应等方面加大支持力度,增强搬迁的信心。     

经济增长、模型再造与农村经济增长方式的转变

经济增长理论是社会经济发展的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学派,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论。但是,发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能建立科学完整的经济增长理论及模型,因此还必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并以此指导中国社会经济增长实践,特别是农村经济增长方式的转变实践。     

An evaluation of product commonality and group technology production methods in a pre-defined multiple-machine scenario

Group technology has been used successfully for a number of years as a setup reduction tool. It is especially valuable in low-volume high-mix manufacturing environments where products and machines may be partitioned into product families and machine cells. The partitioning of machines or processes into cells may be limited by practical constraints, and the partitioning of products is complicated as the number of products and processes increases. In this paper, the authors examine the behaviour of various grouping strategies lauded as being appropriate in situations where machine partitioning and product routeing are determined by technological constraints. Of specific experimental concern in this paper is the effect of the mean and variance of component part commonality between products on system performance under various grouping strategies in a multiple-machine environment.     

Further results in the optimal policy for imperfect inspection in discrete time

The paper reports investigations into how the optimal inspection interval for a fallible system with imperfect inspection is best determined. This work can be viewed as an extension of Raz and Ladany's 1992 work on imperfect inspection in discrete time. Here the cost functions are rewritten to include a probability conditioning that was omitted. In addition, an upper bound on the search space for the optimal inspection interval is presented. This bound allows one to find the global optimum with very modest computational effort. Insights gained from this bound and from the computational tests are used to present some general properties of the system.     

名词性复合词的意义建构诸理论述评

名词性复合词的意义建构是一个看似简单,实际上非常复杂的过程。传统语法把这一意义建构过程简单化,认为名词性复合词的意义等于各组成部分名词的意义总和。转换生成语言学家 意义特征理论学家也都提出了各自的理论解释,但都有很大的缺陷。概念合成语言学理论对名词性复合词的意义建构做出了比较完整的理论解释,但也有待于进一步的改进。     

福建省耕地流向及其与经济发展的关系

土地利用数量的净变化是土地双向变化的结果。在单一土地利用类型动态度模型基础上利用单一土地利用动态变化辅助方法:列表清单法和单一土地利用动态度双向模型,对福建省及各设区市耕地流向进行分析。并在此基础上,研究了福建省耕地的减少与经济发展的关系,提出福建省耕地保护的措施。