“80后”农民工择偶模式研究

本文通过对528份有效调查问卷的统计分析得知:80后农民工由于特殊的成长环境和成长经历,他们在择偶上出现了年龄偏早化、择偶观念逆传统化、婚期选择集中化等趋势。针对这种变化,笔者认为构建科学合理的择偶模式势在必行,政府、家庭、社会和个人应各尽其责,协调合作,帮助他们树立正确的人生观、价值观和择偶观,更好地促进社会主义新农村的建设。     

我国区际劳动力流动对经济增长的影响—就业结构变动效应的视角

改革开放以来,大量劳动力由中西部地区的农业部门流向东部沿海发达地区的非农部门,同步实现劳动力的乡城迁移和产业转移,这既是我国市场经济发展、二元经济结构转换的必然结果,也是支撑我国国民经济增长的一个重要机制。研究结果表明。80年代中期以来,随着我国区际劳动力流动日益活跃,劳动力就业结构效应对国民经济总量增长的贡献率呈加强趋势。消除限制区际劳动力流动的各种障碍,进一步增强我国区域问劳动力流动性,是促进国民经济持续快速发展的应时之举。     

汉语语篇中间接回指的认知研究

本文主要从认知语用的角度来研究汉语短篇小说中间接回指的释义问题。通过结合认知语法的概念参照点模型和关联理论,提出了一套可以综合处理各种间接回指的释义原则。     

A semiparametric maximum likelihood ratio test for the change point in copula models

In the present paper, a semiparametric maximum-likelihood-type test statistic is proposed and proved to have the same limit null distribution as the classical parametric likelihood one. Under some mild conditions, the limiting law of the proposed test statistic, suitably normalized and centralized, is shown to be double exponential, under the null hypothesis of no change in the parameter of copula models. We also discuss the Gaussian-type approximations for the semiparametric likelihood ratio. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic under specified alternatives is shown to be normal, and an approximation to the power function is given. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed statistical tests based on the double exponential and Gaussian-type approximations.     

战略变革中的企业文化研究

由于企业所处的外部环境的不确定性、不连续性和难以预测性的增加 ,西方管理学界对企业战略变革的关注与日俱增。本文主要从企业战略与企业文化的关系入手 ,通过分析企业当前面临的战略变革环境 ,提出在企业战略变革中 ,企业文化应扮演的角色 ,以及如何使战略变革在组织文化中产生根深蒂固的影响。     

Intertemporal consumer behaviour under structural changes in income

In this paper we analyze models of forward looking consumer behaviour and give empirical evidence for aggregate quarterly data for the Netherlands, 1967-1984. Special attention is devoted to the implications of unanticipated structural changes in the income process, which because of replanning, will have an impact on the consumption decision. We start with the life cycle hypothesis. Since the fall in aggregate consumption in the Netherlands in the eighties can not be explained by the life cycle model, the theory is reformulated by assuming that the planning horizon of the consumers moves ahead as time goes on. As a result, an error correction mechanism has to be introduced in the consumption function.The modified model is found to be in agreement with the data.     

The effectiveness and specificity of change management in a public organization: Transformational leadership and a bureaucratic organizational structure

There is an extensive private sector literature on organizational change management. However, recent studies have suggested that the specific context of public organizations may have consequences for the management organizational change. This study examines to what extent different change approaches and transformational leadership of direct supervisors contribute to the effective implementation of organizational change in public organizations, and to what extent the bureaucratic structure of public organizations makes the implementation of organizational change s3pecific. The implementation of an organizational change in a Dutch public organization is studied using quantitative methods and techniques. The results indicate that bureaucratic organizations may effectively implement organizational change with both planned and emergent change approaches. The contribution of transformational leadership depends on the type of change approach and organizational structure. Transformational leadership behavior of direct supervisors contributes little to planned processes of change, but is crucial in emergent processes of change in a non-bureaucratic context. Although the literature on change management mostly emphasizes the leadership of senior managers, the leadership role of direct supervisors should not be overlooked during organizational change in public organizations.     

Establishing dominance between strategies with interval judgments of state probabilities

In decision-making under uncertainty, a decision-maker is required to specify, possibly with the help of decision analysts, point estimates of the probabilities of uncertain events. In this setting, it is often difficult to obtain very precise measurements of the decision-maker׳s probabilities on the states of nature particularly when little information is available to evaluate probabilities, available information is not specific enough, or we have to model the conflict case where several information sources are available.In this paper, imprecise probabilities are considered for representing the decision-maker׳s perception or past experience about the states of nature, to be specific, interval probabilities, which can be further categorized as (a) intervals of individual probabilities, (b) intervals of probability differences, and (c) intervals of ratio probabilities. We present a heuristic approach to modeling a wider range of types of probabilities as well as three types of interval probabilities. In particular, the intervals of ratio probabilities, which are widely used in the uncertain AHP context, are analyzed to find extreme points by the use of change of variables, not to mention the first two types of interval probabilities. Finally, we examine how these extreme points can be used to determine an ordering or partial ordering of the expected values of strategies.     

唐寅与弘治己未春闱案的文学史影响

弘治己未春闱案由风闻而起,以莫须有了结,又引起了日后的流言四起。在对该案的种种记载与议论中,唐寅成了关注的焦点,博得了广泛的同情,并使这一事件染上了传奇色彩。案件的文学史意义在于激发了唐寅的"中年转变",使他开辟了人生与艺术创作的新天地;同时又在明中叶诗文革新的关节点上,因唐寅而导致了吴中诗坛复古集团的解体。     

基于Malmquist指数的我国航空公司业全要素生产率分析

运用Malmquist生产率指数方法,对我国5个主要航空公司2002-2006年期间的全要素生产率的变化作了测算。结果显示,2002-2006年中国航空公司业的全要素生产率的平均增长率为1.2%,生产效率总体上有所提高,并且这种增长增长同时受到综合效率改善与技术进步的影响。中国航空公司业全要素生产率水平的提高,除继续强调综合效率的重要性之外,也要进一步加强对技术进步的重视,单独依靠一个方面,全要素生产率的增长将是有限的。