Maximum likelihood estimation in a Weibull regression model with type-1 censoring: a Monte Carlo study

Results of the Monte Carlo study of the performance of a maximum likelihood estimation in a Weibull parametric regression model with two explanatory variables are presented. One simulation run contained 1000 samples censored on the average by the amount of 0-30%. Each simulatedsample was generated in a form of two-factor two-level balanced experiment. The confidence intervals were computed using the large-sample normal approximation via the matrix of observed information. For small sample sizes the estimates of the scale parameter b of the loglifetime were significantly negatively biased, which resulted in a poor quality of confidence intervals for b and the low-level quantiles. All estimators improved their quality when the nominal value of b decreased. A moderate amount of censoring improved the quality of point and confidence estimation. The reparametrization b 7 produced rather accurate confidence intervals. Exact confidence intervals for b in case of non-censoring were obtained using the pivotal quantity b/b.     

Characterizing and Approximating Infinite Scale Mixtures of Normals

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to approximate and identify infinite scale mixtures of normals, SMN. A new method for approximating any infinite SMN with a known mixing measure by a finite SMN is presented. In the new method, the modulus of continuity of the normal family as a function of the scale is used to discretize the mixing measure. This method will be used to approximate univariate and multivariate SMN with mean 0. In the multivariate case, two different methods are used to approximate the infinite SMN. Several results related to SMN are proved and other known ones are presented. For example, SMN are characterized by their corresponding Laplace transforms.     

Locally optimal invariant tests for change in level

The classical change point problem is considered, from the invariance point of view. Locally optimal invariant tests are derived for the change in level, when the initial level and the common variance are assumed to be unknown. The tests derived by Chernoff and Zacks (1964) and Gardner (1969), for the change in level, when variance is known, are shown to be locally optimal invariant tests.     

Bayesian Estimation of Change Point in Inverse Weibull Sequence

A sequence of independent lifetimes X ₁,…, X _m , X _m+1,…, X _n were observed from inverse Weibull distribution with mean stress θ₁ and reliability R ₁(t ₀) at time t ₀ but later it was found that there was a change in the system at some point of time m and it is reflected in the sequence after X _m by change in mean stress θ₁ and in reliability R ₂(t ₀) at time t ₀. The Bayes estimators of m, R ₁(t ₀) and R ₂(t ₀) are derived when a poor and a more detailed prior information is introduced into the inferential procedure. The effects of correct and wrong prior information on the Bayes estimators are studied.     

Multivariate Kendall's tau for change‐point detection in copulas

Statistical procedures for the detection of a change in the dependence structure of a series of multivariate observations are studied in this work. The test statistics that are proposed are $L_1$ , $L_2$ , and $L_{\infty }$ distances computed from vectors of differences of Kendall's tau; two multivariate extensions of Kendall's measure of association are used. Since the distributions of these statistics under the null hypothesis of no change depend on the unknown underlying copula of the vectors, a procedure based on the multiplier central limit theorem is used for the computation of p‐values; the method is shown to be valid both asymptotically and for moderate sample sizes. Alternative versions of the tests that take into account possible breakpoints in the marginal distributions are also investigated. Monte Carlo simulations show that the tests are powerful under many scenarios of change‐point. In addition, two estimators of the time of change are proposed and their efficiency is carefully studied. The methodologies are illustrated on simulated series from the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 65–82; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Comparing Possibly Misspecified Forecasts

Abstract

Recent work has emphasized the importance of evaluating estimates of a statistical functional (such as a conditional mean, quantile, or distribution) using a loss function that is consistent for the functional of interest, of which there is an infinite number. If forecasters all use correctly specified models free from estimation error, and if the information sets of competing forecasters are nested, then the ranking induced by a single consistent loss function is sufficient for the ranking by any consistent loss function. This article shows, via analytical results and realistic simulation-based analyses, that the presence of misspecified models, parameter estimation error, or nonnested information sets, leads generally to sensitivity to the choice of (consistent) loss function. Thus, rather than merely specifying the target functional, which narrows the set of relevant loss functions only to the class of loss functions consistent for that functional, forecast consumers or survey designers should specify the single specific loss function that will be used to evaluate forecasts. An application to survey forecasts of U.S. inflation illustrates the results.     

Preventing Domestic Violence by Changing Australian Gender Relations: Issues and Considerations

ABSTRACT

In recent years Australian governments have significantly refocused domestic violence policies to prioritise primary prevention strategies. The objective of such strategies is to change how Australians perceive, acknowledge, and respond to domestic violence as a gender-based problem. Recognising the value of these efforts to address oppressive cultural practices, we draw attention to limitations inherent in shifting culture as a means to prevent domestic violence. We demonstrate how governments may improve policy approaches by addressing the structural inequalities that have historically forced women into positions of subordination. This will help us move toward more effective and long-term solutions to domestic violence.

IMPLICATIONS

• Australian domestic violence policy must include structural and systems changes prioritising women’s equal rights in addition to equal opportunities.

• To change cultural attitudes and behaviours, we must alter the environment in which oppressions and opportunities are located.

• Social workers can shape the debate to ensure that changing culture to prevent domestic violence is conceptualised as part of a wider social and policy change agenda.

     

Climate Justice and Cultural Sustainability: The Case of Etëtung (Vanuatu Women’s Water Music)

This article investigates connections between climate justice and cultural sustainability through the case of Etëtung, or ‘Vanuatu Women’s Water Music’, as it is found in the ni-Vanuatu community of Leweton. Drawing on existing literature, interviews and field visit observations, I consider how and why Etëtung is proving increasingly important in local efforts toward cultural sustainability and climate justice (social justice as it relates to climate change). Specifically, I focus on three ways in which community members are employing the practice of Etëtung to progress both climate justice and cultural sustainability concerns: first, through the use of Etëtung to maintain and transmit cultural and environmental knowledge; second, through featuring Etëtung in cultural tourism; and third, through drawing on Etëtung to enable greater participation in the regional and international climate change discourse. As such, this article presents and reflects on one multifaceted approach to advancing dual cultural sustainability and climate justice interests, with potential relevance to other contexts in the Pacific and beyond.