Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

Estimation of generalized linear latent variable models

Summary.  Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs), as defined by Bartholomew and Knott, enable modelling of relationships between manifest and latent variables. They extend structural equation modelling techniques, which are powerful tools in the social sciences. However, because of the complexity of the log-likelihood function of a GLLVM, an approximation such as numerical integration must be used for inference. This can limit drastically the number of variables in the model and can lead to biased estimators. We propose a new estimator for the parameters of a GLLVM, based on a Laplace approximation to the likelihood function and which can be computed even for models with a large number of variables. The new estimator can be viewed as an M -estimator, leading to readily available asymptotic properties and correct inference. A simulation study shows its excellent finite sample properties, in particular when compared with a well-established approach such as LISREL. A real data example on the measurement of wealth for the computation of multidimensional inequality is analysed to highlight the importance of the methodology.     

左思风力之成因初探

西晋诗人左思的诗风在西晋文坛上独树一帜，称之为“左思风力”，前人对此有较多地论述，然而就诗风形成的原因却缺乏深入地探究。本文试图从社会时代背景、家庭因素、性格特征三个方面对此加以分析，旨在能够更好地把握左思其人及其诗风。     

"君子"人格的现代文化透视

“君子”作为孔子创立“仁”学体系的物质载体 ,几千年来一直为人们所追求和崇拜 ,它广泛地渗透到人们的观念、行为、思维方式和情感状态之中 ,构成了中华民族的心理基因和性格特征。本文从传统“君子”人格的构成要素与特点 ,结合其对国民心理的影响 ,对之进行现代价值评估     

流行语的界说与初步描写

文章紧扣当代语言生活的现实，以一般现代汉语教材和语言学词典未列或语焉不详的流行语作为考察对象，着重论述和分析了流行语这种跨层级的语言现象的来源、表现形式及其特征，同时还剖析了目前流行语使用上的若干倾向及其原因。     

Joint impact of multiple observations on a subset of variables in multiple linear regression

In multiple linear regression analysis, each observation affects the fitted regression equation differently and has varying influences on the regression coefficients of the different variables. Chatterjee & Hadi (1988) have proposed some measures such as DSSE_ij (Impact on Residual Sum of Squares of simultaneously omitting the ith observation and the jth variable), F_j (Partial F-test for the jth variable) and F_j(i) (Partial F-test for the jth variable omitting the ith observation) to show the joint impact and the interrelationship that exists among a variable and an observation. In this paper we have proposed more extended form of those measures DSSE_IJ, F_J and F_J(I) to deal with the interrelationships that exist among the multiple observations and a subset of variables by monitoring the effects of the simultaneous omission of multiple variables and multiple observations.     

绵阳城区街道用字状况的调查分析

通过对绵阳城区街道用字状况的抽样调查,发现绵阳城区街道用字仍存在着一些不规范的现象。有关部门应加强宣传教育,提高人们的用字规范意识;同时加强监督管理,切实提高绵阳城区街道用字的规范程度。     

易德波与扬州评话情结

挪威学者易德波教授多年、多次到中国江苏扬州,田野调查“扬州评话”。运用西方多种学科、多种方法对中国曲艺之一的扬州评话进行研究。     

ADE-4: a multivariate analysis and graphical display software

We present ADE-4, a multivariate analysis and graphical display software. Multivariate analysis methods available in ADE-4 include usual one-table methods like principal component analysis and correspondence analysis, spatial data analysis methods (using a total variance decomposition into local and global components, analogous to Moran and Geary indices), discriminant analysis and within/between groups analyses, many linear regression methods including lowess and polynomial regression, multiple and PLS (partial least squares) regression and orthogonal regression (principal component regression), projection methods like principal component analysis on instrumental variables, canonical correspondence analysis and many other variants, coinertia analysis and the RLQ method, and several three-way table (k-table) analysis methods. Graphical display techniques include an automatic collection of elementary graphics corresponding to groups of rows or to columns in the data table, thus providing a very efficient way for automatic k-table graphics and geographical mapping options. A dynamic graphic module allows interactive operations like searching, zooming, selection of points, and display of data values on factor maps. The user interface is simple and homogeneous among all the programs; this contributes to making the use of ADE-4 very easy for non- specialists in statistics, data analysis or computer science.     

PVT筒中气液两相非平衡过程的数值模拟

目前国内外多采用平衡后各组分逸度系数相等的平衡判据来描述两相中各个组分的分配情况,但该法无法进行两相由非平衡初始状态达到平衡状态这一非平衡热力学过程的研究。针对这一问题,提出了引入扩散方程来描述液相和气相各个组分由接触到稳定过程的方法,建立了描述两相非平衡态扩散过程的数学模型,提出了分阶段求解模型的求解算法,并运用该法对PVT筒中气液两相系统由接触到稳定过程的状态进行了分析,得出系统全程压力变化规律及平衡状态下随高度变化的甲烷浓度分布规律。计算结果与实验数据对比验证了该方法的可行性,从而为非平衡态相变问题的分析提供了新的思路。