Understanding Cumulative Risk Perception from Judgments and Choices: An Application to Flood Risks

Catastrophic events, such as floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis, are rare, yet the cumulative risk of each event occurring at least once over an extended time period can be substantial. In this work, we assess the perception of cumulative flood risks, how those perceptions affect the choice of insurance, and whether perceptions and choices are influenced by cumulative risk information. We find that participants' cumulative risk judgments are well represented by a bimodal distribution, with a group that severely underestimates the risk and a group that moderately overestimates it. Individuals who underestimate cumulative risks make more risk‐seeking choices compared to those who overestimate cumulative risks. Providing explicit cumulative risk information for relevant time periods, as opposed to annual probabilities, is an inexpensive and effective way to improve both the perception of cumulative risk and the choices people make to protect against that risk.     

Measuring autonomy freedom

In the measurement of autonomy freedom, the admissible potential preference relations are elicited by means of the concept of ‘reasonableness’. In this paper we argue for an alternative criterion based on information about the decision maker’s ‘awareness’ of his available opportunities. We argue that such an interpretation of autonomy fares better than that based on reasonableness. We then introduce some axioms that capture this intuition and study their logical implications. In the process, a new measure of autonomy freedom is characterized, which generalizes some of the measures so far constructed in the literature.We thank Martin van Hees, Robert Sugden, Prasanta Pattanaik, the participants at workshops at the CPNSS, London School of Economics, and at the University of Caen and an anonymous referee for their suggestions. The support of the CPNSS is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is part of a research project on “The Analysis and Measurement of Freedom” funded by the Ministero dell’Istruzione, Università e Ricerca (Italy). Its financial support is gratefully acknowledged.     

产业集群:提升天津滨海新区竞争力的战略选择

产业集群的研究已经成为地区或国家竞争力研究以及区域经济研究的热点.在发达国家,基于产业集群而形成的集群经济早已成为区域经济的重要板块和亮点.本文通过对产业集群理论的回顾以及对产业集群竞争优势的研究,深入思考天津滨海新区所特有的经济条件和发展优势,提出了为提升区域竞争力、加快实施产业集群的经济发展战略.     

Bayesian Estimation and Model Choice in Item Response Models

Item response models are essential tools for analyzing results from many educational and psychological tests. Such models are used to quantify the probability of correct response as a function of unobserved examinee ability and other parameters explaining the difficulty and the discriminatory power of the questions in the test. Some of these models also incorporate a threshold parameter for the probability of the correct response to account for the effect of guessing the correct answer in multiple choice type tests. In this article we consider fitting of such models using the Gibbs sampler. A data augmentation method to analyze a normal-ogive model incorporating a threshold guessing parameter is introduced and compared with a Metropolis-Hastings sampling method. The proposed method is an order of magnitude more efficient than the existing method. Another objective of this paper is to develop Bayesian model choice techniques for model discrimination. A predictive approach based on a variant of the Bayes factor is used and compared with another decision theoretic method which minimizes an expected loss function on the predictive space. A classical model choice technique based on a modified likelihood ratio test statistic is shown as one component of the second criterion. As a consequence the Bayesian methods proposed in this paper are contrasted with the classical approach based on the likelihood ratio test. Several examples are given to illustrate the methods.     

A Probabilistic Dealing Strategy

A probabilistic dealing strategy is proposed which allows all premium brands in an established market to earn nonnegative profits without cooperation. Following the strategy, brands take turns attracting deal-responsive customers. Relative to a reactive competitive strategy, the proposed strategy improves the positions of all premium brands. With use of the strategy, average deal sizes are positively related to a brand's market share, the proportion of quality conscious customers, the proportion of informed customers, the span of regular prices in a market, and the range of customers' acceptable prices.     

Socially disadvantaged women's views of barriers to feeling safe to engage in decision-making in maternity care

BackgroundAlthough midwifery literature suggests that woman-centred care can improve the birthing experiences of women and birth outcomes for women and babies, recent research has identified challenges in supporting socially disadvantaged women to engage in decision-making regarding care options in order to attain a sense of control within their maternity care encounters.ObjectiveThe objective of this paper is to provide an understanding of the issues that affect the socially disadvantaged woman's ability to actively engage in decision-making processes relevant to her care.Research designThe qualitative approach known as Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to gain an understanding of maternity care encounters as experienced by each of the following cohorts: socially disadvantaged women, registered midwives and student midwives. This paper focuses specifically on data from participating socially disadvantaged women that relate to the elements of woman-centred care-choice and control and their understandings of capacity to engage in their maternity care encounters.FindingsSocially disadvantaged women participants did not feel safe to engage in discussions regarding choice or to seek control within their maternity care encounters. Situations such as inadequate contextualised information, perceived risks in not conforming to routine procedures, and the actions and reactions of midwives when these women did seek choice or control resulted in a silent compliance. This response was interpreted as a consequence of women's decisions to accept responsibility for their baby's wellbeing by delegating health care decision-making to the health care professional.ConclusionThis research found that socially disadvantaged women want to engage in their care. However without adequate information and facilitation of choice by midwives, they believe they are outsiders to the maternity care culture and decision-making processes. Consequently, they delegate responsibility for maternity care choices to those who do belong; midwives. These findings suggest that midwives need to better communicate a valuing of the woman's participation in decision-making processes and to work with women so they do have a sense of belonging within the maternity care environment. Midwives need to ensure that socially disadvantaged women do feel safe about having a voice regarding their choices and find ways to give them a sense of control within their maternity care encounters.     

赤峰籍“90后”大学毕业生就业地选择调查研究

本文通过调查问卷及访谈的方式,获取了赤峰籍90年代出生的大学毕业生就业地选择的相关信息,通过对信息数据的整理和分析,分析得出影响其选择的因素。最终提出具有吸引力的地区就业、创业政策方面的建议,引导赤峰籍大学毕业生转变就业观念,合理择业和就业。     

USING CONJOINT ANALYSIS TO PREDICT TRIAL AND REPEAT-PURCHASE PATTERNS OF NEW FREQUENTLY PURCHASED PRODUCTS*

A new approach is proposed to evaluate new-product opportunities. This approach uses the distribution of brand-purchase probability of the new product over a population of potential customers and the outputs from conjoint analysis. The heterogeneous distribution of brand-purchase probability is expressed by a beta binomial brand-choice model compounded with a negative binomial product-class purchase-incidence model. The resulting model provides a way to predict trial and repeat-purchase patterns of new-product concepts. The paper discusses the development of the model. It also discusses issues of measurement, estimation, testing, and implementation of the proposed approach based on actual empirical data.     

Rhetoric or reality? An economic analysis of the effects of religion in Sweden

On the basis of simple rational-choice theory, it is argued that Christian religious involvement influences the divorce, abortion, non-payment, and children-born-out-of-wedlock rates negatively. This influence stems from an expectation that a god punishes certain forms of action and from social reprimands of devotees. Regression analysis is then used to test the theory in the case of Sweden in the year 1990, and the importance of religion, in its negative effect on all of these rates, is strongly confirmed. A particularly interesting result: the marginal effect on three of these rates of increasing the fraction of people active in the Church of Sweden is clearly larger than the marginal effect of increasing the fraction of more conservative free-church members.     

Prospects for Examining Perceived Choice and Control Among Older Adults Living With Family

This review aims to advance the field of aging research by examining coresidence with family, race, and other characteristics as potential determinants of choice and control in older adults. Living with family likely impacts perceived choice and control, as household members often work together to make decisions about care. Race may also influence choice and control, as an accumulation of challenges and opportunities create unique life experiences. This review considers human agency in its examination of choice and control. Suggestions for future research will be discussed.