On the Use of Buy Up as a Model of Customer Choice in Revenue Management

We consider settings in which a revenue manager controls bookings over a sequence of flights. The revenue manager uses a buy‐up model to select booking limits and updates estimates of the model parameters as data are accumulated. The buy‐up model we consider is based upon a simple model of customer choice, wherein each low‐fare customer who is not able to purchase a low‐fare ticket will, with a fixed probability, “buy up” to the high fare, independent of everything else. We analyze the evolution of the parameter estimates (e.g., the buy‐up probability) and chosen booking limits in situations where the buy‐up model is misspecified, that is, in situations where there is no setting of its parameters for which its objective function gives an accurate representation of expected revenue as a function of the booking limit. The analysis is motivated by the common situation in which a revenue manager does not know precisely how customers behave but nevertheless uses a parametric model to make decisions. Under some assumptions, we prove that the booking limits and parameter estimates converge and we compare the actual expected revenue at the limiting values with that associated with the booking limits that would be chosen if the revenue manager knew the actual behavior of customers. The analysis shows that the buy‐up model often works reasonably well even when it is misspecified, and also reveals the importance of understanding how parameter estimates of misspecified models vary as functions of decisions.     

农村“宗教热”原因探究：宗教社会风险假说

基于宗教理性选择理论,提出宗教风险假说,认为风险以及风险应对能力是人们做出宗教选择的一个重要因素。从市场经济、贫困和弱势群体等角度,根据作者调查数据、国家统计数据以及其他全国和局部调查数据,对上述假设进行了检验。结果表明:(1)市场经济中的宗教需求要高于计划经济;(2)市场经济越发达的地区,信教密度就越高;(3)弱势群体的宗教需求要高于强势群体。这些结果证明了宗教风险假说的合理性。最后依据该假说,提出针对当前农村"宗教热"政策建议主要有两点:(1)降低农村人口所面临的风险;(2)提高其应对风险的能力。     

淮安市老年人养老模式选择意愿实证分析

以淮安市869例老人的问卷调查数据为依据,运用Logistic模型对淮安市老年人养老模式的选择意愿进行了实证分析.研究发现:年龄、性别、文化程度、健康状况对养老方式的选择没有显著影响,而婚姻状况、家庭类型、居住地、月收入和最担心的问题有显著影响.     

A Historical,Interdisciplinary Analysis of the Animal and Human Social Ecosystem

No abstract available for this article.     

Using large classes to positive advantage: Involving students as research subjects and active learners

The large lecture format, with all its disadvantages, is becoming increasingly prevalent in undergraduate social work education in many countries. In some cases it can present opportunities other teaching formats cannot. One such opportunity is the implementation of surveys exploring students' own experiences and background with regard to key course content. This can help students 'connect' more easily with the concepts and theories presented in the lecture. An example of this method, including context and selected findings, is presented here with regard to a course on the Psychosocial Aspects of Disability and Illness.     

农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

Trapped in Poor Places? An Assessment of the Residential Spatial Patterns of Housing Choice Voucher Holders in 2004 and 2008

ABSTRACT

This study examines the residential spatial patterns of Housing Choice Voucher holders in Western New York in 2004 and 2008 (n = 4,600 and n = 4,759, respectively). It seeks to answer two questions: Has the concentration of voucher holders in impoverished and same race neighborhoods diminished overtime; and are voucher holders, particularly African Americans, relocating in patterns that would lead to reghettoization or the reconcentration of race and poverty? This type of residential pattern puts voucher holders at risk for resettling in neighborhoods that limit economic and social mobility. Data from the public housing agency contracted to distribute Housing Choice Vouchers were examined. Exploratory spatial analysis techniques were used to identify spatial outliers and to form a hypothesis on spatial patterns of relocation. Spatial clustering analyses were conducted to test the hypothesis on the reghettoization of African American voucher holders in recently relocated neighborhoods. Analyses indicate that African American voucher holders are moving out of impoverished, hypersegregated areas into historically White neighborhoods. A limited number of voucher holders are moving in clustered patterns, which lead to reghettoization. Future research is needed that highlights the role that housing assistance providers play in the residential location choices of low-income clients.     

‘I Might not Live That Long!’ A Study of Young Women's Pension Planning in the UK

There has been considerable concern about levels of pension saving especially given increases in longevity and rising pension deficits. In particular, the prospects of many future female pensioners have been questioned. As pensions are determined by contributions throughout the life course it is imperative to comprehend the attitudes, knowledge, expectations and savings habits of people from an early age to explore why under‐saving occurs. This is particularly pertinent given recent governments' emphasis on individual responsibility for financial provision in retirement. However, there is little research which focuses specifically on young women's attitudes or planning towards pensions despite considerable concern about the future of women's pensions. This article considers young women's (18–30) attitudes towards pensions and whether they differ according to socio‐economic status by using interviews with 15 women (five in routine and manual occupations, five intermediate, five professional and managerial) about how knowledge and choice, trust, responsibility, risk and uncertainty impact on their pension decisions. It is evident that the ability and willingness of people to contribute to a pension depends, among other things, on the pension offered by employers, the pension requirements in place and immediate financial needs. Therefore this article shows that pension policy needs to take into account women's employment histories, which are often fragmented and diverse, when considering young women's attitudes towards pension saving.     

Revealed Preference and Expected Utility

This essay gives necessary and sufficient conditions for recovering expected utility from choice behavior in several popular models of uncertainty. In particular, these techniques handle a finite state model; a model for which the choice space consists of probability densities and the expected utility representation requires bounded, measurable utility; and a model for which the choice space consists of Borel probability measures and the expected utility representation requires bounded, continuous utility. The key result is the identification of the continuity condition necessary for the revelation of linear utility.     

固定效应模型对知情选择政策影响的再验证——以已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的变化为例

利用固定效应模型对1988-2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查数据进行了再次分析,以量化考察知情选择政策对中国已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的影响。研究发现,知情选择与已婚育龄个体避孕措施选择的变化之间呈现一定的因果关联。知情选择导致了育龄个体避孕措施选择的改变,表现为短效自控型避孕措施选择的可能性随着知情选择的开展在逐步升高,而长效医控型避孕措施选择的可能性在逐步降低。