Understanding the Sustainability of Insurgency Conflict in Thailand

Abstract

This article seeks to model the insurgency conflict in the three southern border provinces of the Kingdom of Thailand: Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. In so doing, it will explore the sustainability of the conflict by representing it in terms of a conflict life cycle that is responsive to complexity and change. The cycle arises from the cybernetic viable systems theory of ‘living systems’, and is able to foster a better understanding of what is happening empirically on the social level in these provinces, in respect to a situation characterized as one of incessant conflicts. This conflict model that arises suggests that there is an interconnection between the agents involved, and their individual and interactive dynamics. The conflict involves five types of politically related behaviours that occur between two interactive agents: the state (engaged in searching for and making arrests of insurgents) and the insurgents (engaged in violent acts of shooting, bombing, and arson). These agents are studied to the end of being able to determine the precise interactive nature of the political conflict in which they are engaged. In carrying out this investigation both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. The research was carried out in three stages. In the first stage, time series techniques were used to determine inferentially whether the conflict is both rational and involves interactive behaviours. Stage two adopts the Weibull distribution technique to assess the political conflict. In the third stage, a statistical analysis is conducted of the conflict situation in political terms. Finally, it is explained how the model and the methods used in this article may be used to deal with intractable conflict in other social environments, incidentally tracking the likelihood of conflicts being sustainable. Other agencies could utilize this approach in examining other political conflicts so as to be better able to prepare suitable approaches for coping with intractable conflicts to the end of fostering sustainable peace processes.     

Reshaping to serve evolving communities: Addressing immigrant needs in the library

Abstract

Libraries face evolving communities and must constantly reorient themselves to serve new needs. This article examines the impact of emerging immigrant communities on library services. It discusses the emergence of library services to immigrants and the diverse faces of these services, which may include foreign language collections, access to technology and connections with local services, as appropriately determined through community analysis. The Atwater Library and Computer Centre in Montréal, Québec is examined as a case study of community analysis informing service reorientation. This article will be useful for organizations working with immigrants or community service providers confronted with changing demographics.     

Prompting Depression Treatment Seeking among Smokers: A Comparison of Participants from Six Countries in an Internet Stop Smoking RCT

Websites containing information and advice about health are increasingly common and popular. It is important to understand whether the material these sites contain can positively influence individual behavior, and whether populations differ in their response to that material. Participants in an international web-based stop smoking randomized controlled trial (RCT) were screened for major depression; participants whose history and/or depression symptoms were deemed of concern were offered one of two prompts (Strong and Mild) to seek treatment, depending on depression history. Participants from 3 predominantly English-speaking and 3 predominantly Spanish-speaking countries were analyzed. Individuals given a Strong prompt were more likely to seek treatment for depression than those given a weak prompt (16.6% vs. 10.2% of previously untreated individuals reported seeking treatment), controlling for symptom level and other variables. Country-specific differences were observed, with participants from South Africa and Spain departing from the common pattern of Strong prompt leading to higher likelihood of treatment seeking. Older age and female gender, but not symptom level predicted higher likelihood of seeking treatment following a prompt. The results suggest that information provided by the health websites can promote help seeking in affected individuals.     

The increasing importance of friends: Changes in core discussion network composition in post-communist Hungary between 1997 – 2015

In order to detect changes in social connectivity, we examined evolutions in the personal network structure by analyzing over-time trends in the composition of the population’s core discussion networks on four cross-sectional, nationally representative surveys between 1997 and 2015, in the era of post-communism, in Hungary. There has been a very significant change; in fact, a reversal of trends regarding the composition of the core discussion networks (CDNs) concerning kin and non-kin ties over the past decades. Our data suggest that friendship ties gained more importance. There seems to be a generation-specific aspect of the change: young people include family ties less often than older people and this effect strengthens over time. Women still have a higher ratio of kin ties compared to men and this effect does not change significantly during the analyzed period.     

Theory of change models deepen online learning evaluation

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have gained traction as resources for professional development. This article presents the method that we used to evaluate a professional development MOOC for postdoctoral trainees that was created by a university consortium in the US. Most approaches to evaluating MOOCs focus on analysis of participation, outcomes from course assignments, self-reported learning outcomes, course completion and user pathways through the online content or clickstream data. Few published evaluations describe in detail how learning happens within online courses and the anticipated medium and longer term cognitive and behavioral outcomes on participants. This work aims to guide those who are designing, implementing and evaluating MOOCs through applying theories of change to focus evaluation on the process of learning. This approach can be used as a complement to traditional approaches for evaluating MOOCs. We described how we worked with the MOOC team building the content to develop a theory of change for each module (or lesson) within the MOOC and used the theory of change to guide evaluation of short and medium term participant cognitive, affective and attitudinal, and behavioral outcomes. Finally, we share lessons learned and suggestions for implementing theories of change in both the design and evaluation phases of MOOC development.     

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios

Flood risk is a function of both climate and human behavior, including individual and societal actions. For this reason, there is a need to incorporate both human and climatic components in models of flood risk. This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent-based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a case study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping perception. The community can mitigate or disseminate information to reduce flood risk. Results show that agent behavior and community action have a significant impact on the evolution of flood risk under different climate scenarios. In all scenarios, individual and community action generally result in a decline in damages over time. In a lower flood risk scenario, the decline is primarily due to agent mitigation, while in a high flood risk scenario, community mitigation and agent relocation are primary drivers of the decline. Adaptive behaviors offset some of the increase in flood risk associated with climate change, and under an extreme climate scenario, our model indicates that many agents relocate.     

Conflict ecology: Examining the strategies and rationales of lobbyists in the mining and energy industries in Australia

This article develops a new framework, conflict ecology, for predicting and critiquing specific lobbying strategies. This framework is applied in an analysis of interviews conducted with senior lobbyists from the mining and energy sector in Australia, which has proven to be especially effective in opposing and defeating new taxes and legislation intended to reduce carbon pollution. This analysis shows that an industry suffering a legitimacy gap will likely possess an intransigent or resistant worldview. Practitioners directing these campaigns see their role as ethically justified and necessary to defeat oppositional publics. This worldview gives rise to power strategies that reward allies and punish adversaries, with emotive and targeted issues communication used to apply further pressure to the legislature as part of outsider lobbying campaigns. Ultimately, this study considers the extent to which these lobbying strategies serve communitas ends proposed in the theory of the fully functioning society.     

‘My Child is Anxious Because We Might Get Deported’: Brief Therapy from MRI with an Immigrant Family in the United States

As we go to press in a COVID-19 world, the topic of anxiety is foremost on our minds. While each situation has to be considered in its own context, how to manage different anxieties has common denominators. There is currently a sharp increase in forced migration around the globe so mental health professionals must develop effective skills, like the ability to adapt services to different contexts and cultures, to manage the needs of immigrant people. Problem-Solving Brief Therapy, as developed at the Mental Research Institute in Palo Alto, is a systemic model of therapy, which aims at promoting change in the complaint the presenting client (the ‘talker’) cares about. The model’s roots in Constructivism foster integrating the clients’ beliefs and values into therapy to allow the therapists to adapt to the clients’ particular needs. This paper is the analysis of a single case where the therapist worked with an immigrant family because their child suffered from severe anxiety related to the parents’ threatened deportation. The paper focuses on premises and strategies that allowed minimising cultural barriers between therapists and family members, thus facilitating a strong therapeutic alliance conducive to improvement.