A Comparison of Some Methods for the Selection of a Common Eigenvector Model for the Covariance Matrices of Two Groups

Two new nonparametric common principal component model selection procedures based on bootstrap distributions of the vector correlations of all combinations of the eigenvectors from two groups are proposed. The performance of these methods is compared in a simulation study to the two parametric methods previously suggested by Flury in 1988, as well as modified versions of two nonparametric methods proposed by Klingenberg in 1996 and then by Klingenberg and McIntyre in 1998. The proposed bootstrap vector correlation distribution (BVD) method is shown to outperform all of the existing methods in most of the simulated situations considered.     

Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve

In this article, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of yields and are well proxied by economic growth and real interest rates.     

The Local Power of the CADF and CIPS Panel Unit Root Tests

Very little is known about the local power of second generation panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-section dependence. This article derives the local asymptotic power functions of the cross-section argumented Dickey–Fuller Cross-section Augmented Dickey-Fuller (CADF) and CIPS tests of Pesaran (2007), which are among the most popular tests around.     

中国工业要素替代弹性的分解——基于直接替代效应和诱致性技术创新效应的研究

基于固定替代弹性(CES)生产函数构建了要素替代弹性分解的理论框架模型,根据技术进步是否发生改变,将要素替代弹性分解为直接替代效应和诱致性技术创新效应,并利用1978—2013年中国工业数据对其进行了实证检验分析。实证结果表明:在中国工业化进程中,中国工业资本与劳动之间是呈互补关系;同时,在要素替代过程中,诱致性技术创新效应起到了主要作用。因此,在中国经济转型的新常态下,应该继续加大技术创新的投入力度,加速推进工业产业技术升级,优化产业结构。     

中国宏观经济波动源的识别与原因分析

为了识别驱动中国宏观经济周期波动性的影响因素,依据中国经济的特殊性,基于1978-2014年42个宏观经济变量的样本数据集构建动态因子模型进行实证分析。研究发现,驱动中国宏观经济波动主要因素有5个潜在宏观因子,其中前四个主要因子分别揭示了驱动中国经济周期波动的主要波动源,它们分别为工业产出因子、外商直接投资(FDI)因子、设备利用率因子和全要素生产率因子。另外,讨论了熨平经济周期性波动的经济政策选择。     

Bayesian t-tests for correlations and partial correlations

In this paper, we develop Bayes factor based testing procedures for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The proposed Bayesian tests are obtained by restricting the class of the alternative hypotheses to maximize the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when the Bayes factor is larger than a specified threshold. It turns out that they depend simply on the frequentist t-statistics with the associated critical values and can thus be easily calculated by using a spreadsheet in Excel and in fact by just adding one more step after one has performed the frequentist correlation tests. In addition, they are able to yield an identical decision with the frequentist paradigm, provided that the evidence threshold of the Bayesian tests is determined by the significance level of the frequentist paradigm. We illustrate the performance of the proposed procedures through simulated and real-data examples.     

Three Recommendations for Improving the Use of p-Values

ABSTRACT

Researchers commonly use p-values to answer the question: How strongly does the evidence favor the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis? p-Values themselves do not directly answer this question and are often misinterpreted in ways that lead to overstating the evidence against the null hypothesis. Even in the “post p?<?0.05 era,” however, it is quite possible that p-values will continue to be widely reported and used to assess the strength of evidence (if for no other reason than the widespread availability and use of statistical software that routinely produces p-values and thereby implicitly advocates for their use). If so, the potential for misinterpretation will persist. In this article, we recommend three practices that would help researchers more accurately interpret p-values. Each of the three recommended practices involves interpreting p-values in light of their corresponding “Bayes factor bound,” which is the largest odds in favor of the alternative hypothesis relative to the null hypothesis that is consistent with the observed data. The Bayes factor bound generally indicates that a given p-value provides weaker evidence against the null hypothesis than typically assumed. We therefore believe that our recommendations can guard against some of the most harmful p-value misinterpretations. In research communities that are deeply attached to reliance on “p?<?0.05,” our recommendations will serve as initial steps away from this attachment. We emphasize that our recommendations are intended merely as initial, temporary steps and that many further steps will need to be taken to reach the ultimate destination: a holistic interpretation of statistical evidence that fully conforms to the principles laid out in the ASA statement on statistical significance and p-values.     

Values and happiness among Asian adolescents: a cross-national study

Despite policy efforts to increase adolescent happiness, their impact has been unsatisfactory. Their limited impact may be rooted from a discrepancy between values that adolescents pursued and those that the policies were based on. To provide policy implications, our study aims to identify prevailing values for South Korean, Japanese, and Chinese adolescents and to examine the relationship between the values and self-rated happiness (SRH). A cross-sectional study was conducted using survey data collected on approximately 2000 middle and high school students (7th to 12th school grade) from each country in 2008. Firstly, an explanatory factor analysis was conducted to identify salient adolescent values from each country. Subsequently, a multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted for each population group to examine the relationship between the identified values and adolescent SRH after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics. We found that benevolence and altruism were positively associated with adolescent SRH in all three population groups. Patriarchy was associated with SRH positively in Chinese yet inversely in Japanese. Success pursuit was inversely associated with SRH in Korean. Policy efforts based on values of communities or social harmony may benefit adolescents’ SRH in these three countries.     

民事责任归责问题的理论思考

民事责任的归责是指民事行为人违反法定义务或约定义务后,依什么为根据来使行为人承担强制性的不利后果。民事责任的归责基础是民事违约行为或违法行为对他人的权利或利益造成了损害。民事责任的归责基础和归责要素是两个既有区别又有联系的概念。由行为、损害、过错、因果关系、主体的特殊角色的不同组合构成了民事责任归责要素的内容。确定民事责任的归责原则需考虑以下规则:合理性规则、公正性规则、可操作性规则和逻辑性规则。     

论制约我国民族经济发展的因素及对策

我国民族经济发展存在四个制约因素,一是自然地理因素,二是基础设施因素,三是经济环境因素,四是社会发展滞后因素,五是教育因素.要推进民族经济发展,国家必须实行在经济上扶持,生态上减压,运作上创新等措施.