A journey around decision-making: Searching for the “big picture” across disciplines

This paper carries out an interdisciplinary literature review to develop an updated framework that integrates all aspects of decision-making. It proposes a framework that combines the evolutionary perspective with the complexity theory to integrate the ontological communalities between the examined disciplines (operational research, psychology and management). Decision-making is regarded as a systemic, multi-tiered information-based process, founded on the interaction of the decision-maker with the environment in a sort of learning path which co-evolves through variation–selection–retention mechanisms nourished by environmental feedback.Such a complex-coevolutionary perspective provides valuable insights concerning some as-yet-unexplored aspects of decision-making, such as inter- and intra-individual differences in decision-making, as well as the interaction of ‘rational’ and ‘intuitive’ processes or some contradictory evidence (regarding ‘fractionated expertise’ and ‘escalation of commitment’).Practical implications on management education are highlighted, as well as methodological limitations and needs for further studies. The journey is not yet over and probably never will be, but, from an evolutionary perspective, it is the journey, not the arrival, that matters.     

On complexity and lotteries' evaluation – three experimental observations

We present experimental evidence suggesting that human subjects penalize lotteries for complexity. Our results contradict the assumption that human agents follow the discounted expected utility model in multi-period choice with uncertainty. In particular, we show that the buying price offered for an inferior, simple multi-period lottery may sometimes significantly exceed the buying price offered for a better, yet more complicated, alternative, when the lotteries are sold to a group of subjects in a first-price auction. We discuss the possibility to modify the existing models of choice to this “complexity effect”.     

西域沙原上的土著歌手——谈刘亮程散文的艺术品格

刘亮程的散文以独特的视角抒写了他对人生和自然的感悟。通过对一个“村庄”的不厌其烦的描绘,诉说万物生灵的生存状态,表现他对于大千世界天人合一、等物齐观的思想认识。他以自己的故土为立足点,以儿童的眼光和情怀叙述故事,别开生面,又别具特色。     

复杂性：从存在到演化的思想革命

从以简单方法所揭示的机械论的世界到以复杂性方法揭示的不断演化的世界,人类从来没有停止过对我们生存的世界的探索。系统方法、自组织方法等自然科学的发展为我们揭示了不断演化着的客观“存在”,复杂性正是让我们在演化中把握存在,让我们以新的视角去认识世界,去接受正在进行的在思想上的进化。复杂性方法在今天对我们探索世界正起着不可替代的重要作用,它不仅是对简单性思维范式的超越,而且极大地扩展了人类对于自然界认识的疆域。     

A critical review on supply chain risk – Definition,measure and modeling

Economic systems are increasingly prone to complexity and uncertainty. Therefore, making well-informed decisions requires risk analysis, control and mitigation. In some areas such as finance, insurance, crisis management and health care, the importance of considering risk is largely acknowledged and well-elaborated, yet rather heterogeneous concepts and approaches for risk management have been developed. The increased frequency and the severe consequences of past supply chain disruptions have resulted in an increasing interest in risk. This development has led to the adoption of the risk concepts, terminologies and methods from related fields. In this paper, existing approaches for quantitative supply chain risk management are reviewed by setting the focus on the definition of supply chain risk and related concepts.     

Complexity,simplicity, simplexity

“In the midst of order, there is chaos; but in the midst of chaos, there is order”, John Gribbin wrote in his book Deep Simplicity (p. 76). In this dialectical spirit, we discuss the generative tension between complexity and simplicity in the theory and practice of management and organization. Complexity theory suggests that the relationship between complex environments and complex organizations advanced by the well-known Ashby’s law, may be reconsidered: only simple organization provides enough space for individual agency to match environmental turbulence in the form of complex organizational responses. We suggest that complex organizing may be paradoxically facilitated by a simple infrastructure, and that the theory of organizations may be viewed as resulting from the dialectical interplay between simplicity and complexity.     

Board of directors structure and firm financial performance: A qualitative comparative analysis

Previous research about the effects of board structure and process on the firm financial performance is based on conflicting theoretical perspectives, and empirical results, mostly based on regression analysis, are inconclusive. Building from Complexity Theory and configurational analysis, this study offers clarity to inconclusive previous empirical results about the link among several board features and firm financial performance. From a sample of 295 non-financial firms from Southern Europe for the period 2001–2010, and by using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, findings of this study show that firm financial performance depends on a complex configuration of several board features (board size, board independence, leadership structure and board activity) and several corporate characteristics (firm size, firm leverage and firm age). This paper has implications for academics. Despite different theoretical arguments and inconclusive results of the wide empirical literature addressing the effect of board characteristics on the firm performance, building from Complexity Theory this paper adds to our knowledge because it empirically explores under which circumstances different board features should contribute positively or negatively to firm performance. The results of this study have also implications for policy makers and practitioners by providing some useful hints to the controversial relationship between corporate governance and financial performance. In this sense, general corporate governance recommendations must be rethought.     

基于控制论的宏观经济分析方法

针对宏观经济系统中存在的复杂多变性,文章从控制论角度对宏观经济系统的控制论分析方法及主要调控手段、应用效果作了简要反思。文章指出,为了取得预期的经济效果,在经济分析中应更多地关注复杂多变性因素对宏观经济的影响。