复杂性研究的虚拟方法

虚拟方法是科学研究的一种重要方法。由于复杂性科学的研究对象——复杂系统的高度复杂性,使用传统的实物实验方法难于实现,因此更倚重于虚拟实验的方法,而计算机的出现为这种虚拟实验提供了实现的手段。在复杂性研究中,复杂适应系统、人工生命、涌现等复杂系统的研究都依赖于虚拟方法来进行实验。虚拟实验和虚拟方法已成为一种新的重要实验形式和研究方法。     

The authority of complexity*

The assertion about the unique 'complexity' or the peculiarly intricate character of social phenomena has, at least within sociology, a long, venerable and virtually uncontested tradition. At the turn of the last century, classical social theorists, for example, Georg Simmel and Emile Durkheim, made prominent and repeated reference to this attribute of the subject matter of sociology and the degree to which it complicates, even inhibits the develop and application of social scientific knowledge. Our paper explores the origins, the basis and the consequences of this assertion and asks in particular whether the classic complexity assertion still deserves to be invoked in analyses that ask about the production and the utilization of social scientific knowledge in modern society. We present John Maynard Keynes' economic theory and its practical applications as an illustration. We conclude that the practical value of social scientific knowledge is not dependent on a faithful, in the sense of complete, representation of social reality. Instead, social scientific knowledge that wants to optimize its practicality has to attend and attach itself to elements of social situations that can be altered or are actionable.     

复杂理论:二语习得研究的新视角

二语习得/发展可以被看成异质的、动态变化的、非线性的、自适应的、开放的复杂系统,系统中各要素交互作用引起了二语习得发展的变化。"复杂理论"就是对系统中各要素的变化、要素间交互作用的变化、系统轨迹的变化及系统与其它系统的关系进行描述、解释和预测。在复杂理论的新视角下,二语习得领域中值得探索的方向包括语法中的"怪现象"、二语能力的测试、二语习得系统的建模、二语发展轨迹的个体内差异研究、方法论研究等。     

(Re) Defining Emerging Risks

The concept of emergence in risk management can be seen as a revealing symptom of the increasing need for organizations to update their portfolio of risks and opportunities in a rapidly changing and highly competitive environment. Accordingly, the concept of emerging risks has been widely discussed in both scientific and business communities, with, however, a lack of agreement as to whether we should distinguish these risks from others and, if so, what should be the adopted approach for their governance. After reviewing a large set of definitions and conceptions of emerging risks, this article aims at exploring the existence of distinctive features allowing the characterization of a risk as emerging or not. First, we will demonstrate that the features used in the various definitions are ineffective to achieve this distinction. Furthermore, we will argue that all events and consequences associated with risks are or have been states of nature that emerged from complex interactions involving combinations of hazardous activities and stakes. Accordingly, emerging risks are no longer a specific category of risks; they are rather an early step in every risk life cycle that deserves specific governance approaches.     

Bodily Entanglement: Bergson and Thresholds in the Sociology of Affect

D. H. Lawrence's and Henri Bergson's systemic accounts of life in terms of material connectivity/entanglement and durational self-differentiation provide an exciting alternative to static, analytical and atomistic approaches to consciousness, the individual and the group. However, they pose important questions regarding the precise nature of boundaries in a dynamic, materially connected universe. Where does consciousness begin and end, where does the individual begin and end, where does the group begin and end? How do discrete entities emerge at all in a universe of flux, transformation and connectivity? This paper suggests that we might think in terms of dynamic 'thresholds' produced by systems of selection and limitation. Some pointers in this direction are taken from Bergson himself, but also from the work of the complexity theorist Stuart Kauffman and the neurophilosopher Gerald Edelman. One way that this might be applied in practice is demonstrated by use of a case study on African-American youth culture taken from the work of Jock Young.     

Keeping things simple: why the Human Development Index should not diverge from its equal weights assumption

Using a range of statistical criteria rooted in Information Theory we show that there is little justification for relaxing the equal weights assumption underlying the United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI) even if the true HDI diverges significantly from this assumption. Put differently, the additional model complexity that unequal weights add to the HDI more than counteracts the improvement in goodness-of-fit. This suggests that, in some cases, there may be limited validity in increasing the complexity of a range of other composite sustainability indices.     

Examining Organizational Functioning Through the Lens of Complexity Theory Using System Dynamics Modeling

ABSTRACT

The methodologies associated with complexity theory might serve as an adjunct to some of our more traditional behavioral social science research methods. While the latter has a well-established history in social work, the approaches related to complexity theory are just now gaining a foothold. One such approach is system dynamics modeling. This article will describe the application of system dynamics modeling to a well-known early intervention program. The manner in which it complements traditional research approaches will be discussed, and its unique contribution to understanding the organizational aspects of complexity theory will be highlighted.     

Approximation Algorithms for Certain Network Improvement Problems

We study budget constrained network upgrading problems. Such problems aim at finding optimal strategies for improving a network under some cost measure subject to certain budget constraints. Given an edge weighted graph G = (V, E), in the edge based upgrading model, it is assumed that each edge e of the given network also has an associated function ce (t) that specifies the cost of upgrading the edge by an amount t. A reduction strategy specifies for each edge e the amount by which the length (e) is to be reduced. In the node based upgrading model, a node v can be upgraded at an expense of c(v). Such an upgrade reduces the delay of each edge incident on v. For a given budget B, the goal is to find an improvement strategy such that the total cost of reduction is at most the given budget B and the cost of a subgraph (e.g. minimum spanning tree) under the modified edge lengths is the best over all possible strategies which obey the budget constraint.After providing a brief overview of the models and definitions of the various problems considered, we present several new results on the complexity and approximability of network improvement problems.     

基于复杂性的黄土高原生态可持续发展的随机动态规划与博弈分析

黄土高原可持续发展对我国西部大开发战略实施有重要作用,在综述复杂性、博弈论理论及应用的基础上,本文针对黄土高原生态可持续性利用问题,构造了基于马尔可夫决策过程的环境资源随机动态规划的形式化模型,并运用此模型着重对陕北黄土高原榆林地区的水资源进行了实证分析。另外,本文还采用演化博弈模型对不同用户之间如何实现可持续利用资源进行了动态的描述,研究的结论为实现黄土高原资源可持续发展提供了一些建议。     

Renegotiating the terms of engagement: Public relations,marketing, and contemporary challenges

Territorial disputes between public relations and marketing are nothing new. At the end of the first decade of the 21st century, Hutton (2010) refocused them as a matter of survival in the face of marketing attempts “to include or subsume much or all of public relations” (p. 509). In addition to aligning with his call to resist marketing imperialism, this article seeks to renegotiate traditional turf wars between the two fields through a review of recent significant marketing books. Advocating a complexity-based perspective, it argues that evolving disciplines, like evolving species, need to respond not only to each other but also to the wider environment and that requires cooperation as well as competition. It also draws on complexity thinking as a resource for improving disciplinary intersections and for adapting to the uncertain and turbulent conditions of the present.