论经济人的理性冲突及行为目标

基于经济人假设的传统经济理论认为人们具有完全理性能力,但现实中行为人的决策理性程度.经常处于完全理性与有限理性两种情境的转换之中.从研究范式和最终行为目标两个视角来看,完全理性情境下人们遵循最优化原则追求决策收益的最大化;而有限理性情境下则遵循决策收益和过程的满意原则.基于经济人的行为心理及认知能力来分析,追求主观幸福感最大化才是人类经济行为的最终唯一目标.建立于行为经济人基础上的经济发展理论与实践.才是一个国家和地区以人为本、和谐发展的必然要求.     

适应性市场假说及其在中国资本市场的实证

金融危机近些年爆发频繁,传统市场理论如有效市场假说和行为金融面对复杂的现实金融世界未能给出合理解释.Lo提出的适应性市场假说则弥合了这两个学派的分歧,逐渐引起了学术界的重视.本文尝试从动态市场效率、时变贝塔和技术交易策略演变这三个角度对适应性市场假说能否解释我国资本市场进行实证研究.研究发现:我国股票市场效率在动态变化,无效的时段与金融危机或政策巨变等重大事件联系密切;股市风格指数贝塔随市场环境变化而改变;技术交易策略绩效随投资者适应环境变化而演变.研究结果表明,适应性市场假说相比有效市场假说和经典资本资产定价模型,能够更好地解释我国资本市场上述现象.最后对投资者如何根据市场环境变化制定适应性投资策略给出几点建议.     

Modelling columnarity of pyramidal cells in the human cerebral cortex

For modelling the location of pyramidal cells in the human cerebral cortex, we suggest a hierarchical point process in that exhibits anisotropy in the form of cylinders extending along the z-axis. The model consists first of a generalised shot noise Cox process for the xy-coordinates, providing cylindrical clusters, and next of a Markov random field model for the z-coordinates conditioned on the xy-coordinates, providing either repulsion, aggregation or both within specified areas of interaction. Several cases of these hierarchical point processes are fitted to two pyramidal cell data sets, and of these a final model allowing for both repulsion and attraction between the points seem adequate. We discuss how the final model relates to the so-called minicolumn hypothesis in neuroscience.     

Devaluation expectations and the unit root hypothesis: The Italian Lira in the European monetary system

Summary In several studies the unit root hypothesis of EMS exchange rates is analysed within the context of devaluation expectations estimation. By means of bootstrap inference it is shown that these procedures are not compatible with standard Dickey-Fuller significance levels and may lead to a wrong rejection of the null hypothesis. In the case of the Italian Lira/Deutsche Mark exchange rate, the hypothesis of a unit root is not rejected and expectations can be modelled by means of a reflected Brownian motion. The estimated devaluation expectations are related with some macro variables which provide evidence for the structure of expectations. This research has been partially supported with 40% and 60% MURST grants. The author wishes to thank the Bank of Italy for the exchange rates and the interest rates data and Ulf S?derstr?m for providing macroeconomic indicators. Useful suggestions from Riccardo Cesari, Michele Costa and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged.     

知识论证的三大困境

物理主义和反物理主义围绕现象意识展开了一系列讨论,知识论证试图证明有关现象意识的事实是非物理的现象事实,而物理事实和知识是关于整个世界的完整描述的物理主义观点是错误的.但是,以下论证揭示了知识论证所面临的不可回避的困境:经验现象或感质本身的合理性受到了质疑;关于经验现象的知识不能通过物理知识获得的观点也是不成立的;能力假说直接反驳了知识论证是合理可行的,否定了现象事实和现象知识具有独立的本体论地位,指出主体在意识经验中获得了新的能力.     

Bayesian inference for a common scale parameter of several Pareto populations

This article deals with the problem of Bayesian inference concerning the common scale parameter of several Pareto distributions. Bayesian hypothesis testing of, and Bayesian interval estimation for, the common scale parameter is given. Numerical studies including a comparison study, a simulation study, and a practical application study are given in order to illustrate our procedures and to demonstrate the performance, advantages, and merits of the Bayesian procedures over the classical and generalized variable procedures.     

Multiplicity: discussion points from the Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry multiplicity expert group

In May 2012, the Committee of Health and Medicinal Products issued a concept paper on the need to review the points to consider document on multiplicity issues in clinical trials. In preparation for the release of the updated guidance document, Statisticians in the Pharmaceutical Industry held a one‐day expert group meeting in January 2013. Topics debated included multiplicity and the drug development process, the usefulness and limitations of newly developed strategies to deal with multiplicity, multiplicity issues arising from interim decisions and multiregional development, and the need for simultaneous confidence intervals (CIs) corresponding to multiple test procedures. A clear message from the meeting was that multiplicity adjustments need to be considered when the intention is to make a formal statement about efficacy or safety based on hypothesis tests. Statisticians have a key role when designing studies to assess what adjustment really means in the context of the research being conducted. More thought during the planning phase needs to be given to multiplicity adjustments for secondary endpoints given these are increasing in importance in differentiating products in the market place. No consensus was reached on the role of simultaneous CIs in the context of superiority trials. It was argued that unadjusted intervals should be employed as the primary purpose of the intervals is estimation, while the purpose of hypothesis testing is to formally establish an effect. The opposing view was that CIs should correspond to the test decision whenever possible. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

克拉申的“输入假说”对中学英语教学的启示

克拉申所提出的著名的“二语习得”理论包含了5个假说，即习得一学得假说、自然顺序假说、监控假说、情感过滤假说、输入假说。其中，输入假说是其理论的核心成分。在分别介绍5个假说理论的基础上，阐述了理想语言学习的特点，并结合目前中学英语教学所存在的问题进行分析，就克拉申的输入假说理论所带来的启示进行探讨。