新科技革命对国际政治格局的影响

本世纪50年代兴起的新科技革命对整个世界格局发生了重大影响。文章阐述了新科技革命导致各国实力的不平衡，引起国际政治行为主体地位和角色发生变化，从而促使国际政治格局发生演变；新科技革命加快了国际政治格局的变革周期；并改变了国际政治格局转化的手段。     

Caring about independent lives

With the rhetoric of independence, new cash for care systems were introduced in many developed welfare states at the end of the 20th century. These systems allow local authorities to pay people who are eligible for community care services directly, to enable them to employ their own careworkers. Despite the obvious importance of the careworker’s perceptions of a welfare system aimed at independence for disabled people, this perspective is under‐researched. This article explores this perspective by outlining three examples of careworker strategies (a continuing carer biography, searching for new horizons and acting pragmatically) identified in a cross‐national case study of cash for care in the UK and Norway. The strategies are mainly derived by considering different positions in the labour market and different ways of carrying out this carework. Overall, the paper intends to contribute to the understanding of the complex welfare dilemma between user independence and the nature of carework.     

Applying the ‘Experience-Near’ Principle To Research: Psychoanalytically Informed Methods1

This article is about how to preserve the vitality of the meaning conveyed to social science researchers by participants. I use the example of a qualitative, psycho-social project on the topic of how women's identities change when they become mothers for the first time. Psychoanalysis was used and adapted to understand both participants' and researchers' experience, and the relation of these to each other. I describe two psychoanalytically informed research methods, free association narrative interviewing and infant observation, and give examples of how, separately and together they can go beyond a text-based method and conceptualise identities in ways that avoid reproducing assumptions of rational, unitary, discursive subjectivity. In assessing how well the two methods worked, I focus my discussion on the observation method using four themes: dimensions of time, embodiment and practices, spatial sensitivity and multiple positioning, and how knowing is accomplished in research.     

Local efficiency of moment estimators in beta-binomial model

In this paper, the beta-binomial model is introduced as a Markov chain. It is shown that the correlated binomial model of Kupper and Haseman (1978) is identical to the additive binomial model of AItham(1978) and both are a first order approximation of the beta-binomial model. For small γ, the local efficiency of the moment estimators for the mean ρ and the extra-binomial variation γ is examined analytically. It is shown that, locally, the moment estimator for p is efficient up to the second order of y. Exact formulae for the relative efficiency are obtained for both the cases with γ known and unknown. Generalization to the unequal sample size case is also carried out. In particular, the gain in efficiency by using the quasi-likelihood estimator instead of the ratio estimator for p is studied when γ is known. These results are in agreement with the Monte Carlo results of Kleinman(1973) and Crowder(1985).     

语文课堂提问策略初探

课堂提问是决定语文课堂教学成败的重要因素 ,把握不好就会严重影响课堂教学效果。语文课堂提问应从语文教学规律和中学生特点出发 ,科学把握提问策略 ,正确对待学生质疑问难     

论寿险经营风险的防范和控制

寿险经营 ,实质上是一种负债经营 ,而且由于寿险风险具有隐藏性、累积性、爆发性和危害性的特点 ,一旦爆发 ,就可能造成严重的社会后果 ,这就需要寿险公司及其监管机构及早识别寿险经营中存在的风险 ,进行防范和控制 ,以维持寿险经营的稳定。本文从防范和控制寿险经营风险的必要性出发 ,分析了寿险经营中存在的各种风险 ,尝试运用财务分析法中的各种指标测试来识别这些风险 ,提出了监管机构、寿险公司和自律组织在寿险经营风险防范和控制中应采取的各种措施。     

基于Markov过程的市场预测

本文根据产品在市场流通领域中所处地位，把它分为四个状态，利用Ｍａｒｋｏｖ过程建立其状态分布的数学模型，给企业提供市场信息，以便组织货源与作出科学决策，从而减少参与市场竞争的盲目性．     

A variable selection approach to monotonic regression with Bernstein polynomials

One of the standard problems in statistics consists of determining the relationship between a response variable and a single predictor variable through a regression function. Background scientific knowledge is often available that suggests that the regression function should have a certain shape (e.g. monotonically increasing or concave) but not necessarily a specific parametric form. Bernstein polynomials have been used to impose certain shape restrictions on regression functions. The Bernstein polynomials are known to provide a smooth estimate over equidistant knots. Bernstein polynomials are used in this paper due to their ease of implementation, continuous differentiability, and theoretical properties. In this work, we demonstrate a connection between the monotonic regression problem and the variable selection problem in the linear model. We develop a Bayesian procedure for fitting the monotonic regression model by adapting currently available variable selection procedures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method through simulations and the analysis of real data.     

试论方干的隐居及其心态

方干被称为一位“不识朝、不识市”的高隐，其实并非如此。他早年及中老年时曾在睦州故乡和镜湖过着隐居生活，但身在江湖却心存魏阙。他曾多次应举求仕，却屡遭挫折，一生始终未能抑制住为求仕而躁动的心。经历多次挫折之后，他感叹愤激，不时地唱出了似若敝席功名、豁达自处、甘于隐退的诗句，然而这正是他急于求仕而不得时发出的心声，表现出不甘于隐逸而追求入仕的微妙心态     

Csiszar’s ϕ-divergences for testing the order in a Markov chain

x ₁, ..., x _n+r can be treated as the sample values of a Markov chain of order r or less (chain in which the dependence extends over r+1 consecutive variables only), and consider the problem of testing the hypothesis H ₀ that a chain of order r− 1 will be sufficient on the basis of the tools given by the Statistical Information Theory: _ϕ-Divergences. More precisely, if p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} denotes the transition probability for a r ^th order Markov chain, the hypothesis to be tested is H ₀:p _{a 1 ....., a r}: _{a r +1} = p _{a 2 ....., a r}: _{a r +1}, a _i ∈{1, ..., s}, i = 1, ..., r + 1 The tests given in this paper, for the first time, will have as a particular case the likelihood ratio test and the test based on the chi-squared statistic. Received: August 3, 1998; revised version: November 25, 1999