Semiparametric Efficient Estimation of the Mean of a Time Series in the Presence of Conditional Heterogeneity of Unknown Form

We obtain semiparametric efficiency bounds for estimation of a location parameter in a time series model where the innovations are stationary and ergodic conditionally symmetric martingale differences but otherwise possess general dependence and distributions of unknown form. We then describe an iterative estimator that achieves this bound when the conditional density functions of the sample are known. Finally, we develop a “semi-adaptive” estimator that achieves the bound when these densities are unknown by the investigator. This estimator employs nonparametric kernel estimates of the densities. Monte Carlo results are reported.     

Approximating hidden Gaussian Markov random fields

Summary.  Gaussian Markov random-field (GMRF) models are frequently used in a wide variety of applications. In most cases parts of the GMRF are observed through mutually independent data; hence the full conditional of the GMRF, a hidden GMRF (HGMRF), is of interest. We are concerned with the case where the likelihood is non-Gaussian, leading to non-Gaussian HGMRF models. Several researchers have constructed block sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes based on approximations of the HGMRF by a GMRF, using a second-order expansion of the log-density at or near the mode. This is possible as the GMRF approximation can be sampled exactly with a known normalizing constant. The Markov property of the GMRF approximation yields computational efficiency.The main contribution in the paper is to go beyond the GMRF approximation and to construct a class of non-Gaussian approximations which adapt automatically to the particular HGMRF that is under study. The accuracy can be tuned by intuitive parameters to nearly any precision. These non-Gaussian approximations share the same computational complexity as those which are based on GMRFs and can be sampled exactly with computable normalizing constants. We apply our approximations in spatial disease mapping and model-based geostatistical models with different likelihoods, obtain procedures for block updating and construct Metropolized independence samplers.     

Conditional inference for subject-specific and marginal agreement: Two families of agreement measures

A two-stage procedure is described for assessing subject-specific and marginal agreement for data from a test-retest reliability study of a binary classification procedure. Subject-specific agreement is parametrized through the log odds ratio, while marginal agreement is reflected by the log ratio of the off-diagonal Poisson means. A family of agreement measures in the interval [-1, 1] is presented for both types of agreement. The conditioning argument described facilitates exact inference. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by way of an example involving hypothetical data chosen for illustrative purposes, and data from a National Health Survey Study (Rogot and Goldberg 1966).     

Empirical Bayes rules and Gaussian processes

In this paper we study empirical Bayes (e.B.) rules from a viewpoint which has not yet got any attention in the literature. Since an e.B. estimator can be seen as an estimate of an unknown function, namely the true Bayes estimator, it is natural to consider e.B. estimators as stochastic processes. In this paper we make a first attempt in the direction of this approach. For a certain class of e.B. estimators for the continuous one-parameter exponential family, we investigate the global behaviour on finite intervals. It is shown that the difference between the e.B. and the true Bayes estimator can be represented as a certain type of Gaussian process plus a remainder which is uniformly of smaller order. Several applications of this result are given.     

A simple test of symmetry about an unknown median

A simple test statistic for testing symmetry of a distribution function about an unknown value is presented. The asymptotic distributions under symmetry and asymmetry are derived. Using the normal as a “calibration” distribution, the critical values of the test are calculated by Monte Carlo methods. Comparisons with other tests indicate that this procedure performs well.     

Asymptotic Results of a Nonparametric Conditional Quantile Estimator for Functional Time Series

We consider the estimation of the conditional quantile function when the covariates take values in some abstract function space. The main goal of this article is to establish the almost complete convergence and the asymptotic normality of the kernel estimator of the conditional quantile under the α-mixing assumption and on the concentration properties on small balls of the probability measure of the functional regressors. Some applications and particular cases are studied. This approach can be applied in time series analysis to the prediction and building of confidence bands. We illustrate our methodology with El Niño data.     

Mixed Graphical Model Selection Using Holm's Procedure

The problem of selecting a graphical model is considered as a performing simultaneously multiple tests. The control of the overall Type I error on the selected graph is done using the so famous Holm's procedure. We prove that when we use a consistent edge exclusion test the selected graph is asymptotically equal to the true graph with probability at least equal to a fixed level 1 ? α. This method is then used for the selection of mixed concentration graph models by performing the χ²-edge exclusion test. We also apply the method to two classical examples and to simulated data. We compare the overall error of the selected model with the one obtained using the stepwise method. We establish that the control is better when we use the Holm's procedure.     

Conditional Information in Projections of Gaussian Vectors

Conditional information measures the information in a sample for an interest parameter in the presence of nuisance parameter. In the context of Gaussian likelihoods this paper first derives conditions under which a projection of the data may reduce conditional information to zero. These are then applied in the context of time series regressions, and inference on a covariance parameter, such as with either autoregressive or moving average errors. It is shown that regressing out very common regressors, such as a linear trend or dummy variable, can imply that conditional information is zero in the case of non-stationary autoregressions or non-invertible moving averages, respectively.     

Estimation of Survivorship Function Based on Doubly Censored Data with Application to HIV/AIDS

Left censoring concept has been defined in different ways in statistical applications. Turnbull (1974 Turnbull , B. W. ( 1974 ). Nonparametric estimation of a survivorship function with doubly censored data . J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 69 : 169 – 173 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) defines it in a particular way. Whereas in recent literature, especially in epidemiological studies, it has been defined in another way. This difference between the two approaches is the main reason that despite simplicity, Turnbull method cannot be applicable in all cases of doubly censored data. In this article we present a modified Turnbull method for analysis of doubly censored data adequate with recent definition. Comparison has been done with other statistical methods, including imputation estimator, full likelihood-based and conditional likelihood-based approach using Iranian HIV data.     

Identifying Preferences for Conditional Cooperation Using Individual Beliefs

The relationship between contributions and elicited beliefs in a repeated two-person public good experiment is modeled with the help of a parsimounious random-utility function that allows for conditionally cooperative, opportunistic, and altruistic patterns of behavior. Under standard assumptions, a latent-class mixed logit specification with three sub-populations is shown to capture well heterogeneity in individual contribution levels over time, while also accomodating for different degrees of heteroscedasticity. The estimation results are consistent with the conjecture that the majority of players in public goods games are strongly conditional cooperators, with smaller fractions of the population leaning to opportunistic or altruistic behavior.