Criticism of the predictive distribution

The predictive distribution is a mixture of the original distribution model and is used for predicting a future observation. Therein, the mixing distribution is the posterior distribution of the distribution parameters in the Bayesian inference. The mixture can also be computed for the frequentist inference because the Bayesian posterior distribution has the same meaning as a frequentist confidence interval. I present arguments against the concept of predictive distribution. Examples illustrate these. The most important argument is that the predictive distribution can depend on the parameterization. An improvement of the theory of the predictive distribution is recommended.     

动静叶相互干涉的三维非定常流场数值模拟

将双时间步法应用于叶栅级的全三维黏性非定常数值求解，讨论了分区算法中内边界条件的给定问题，本算法可保证分区边界上具有与内点相同的精度，具有很好的数值稳定性，且通量基本守恒，将该方法应用于具有弯曲导叶的涡轮级的计算可得到典型的非定常流谱，揭示了动静叶之间的相互干涉对叶片气动性能的影响，数值计算结果表明本文给出的算法是合理有效的。     

唯一分解环上的一元多项式环的因子分解

本文提供了一个求唯一分解环Ｉ上的多项式的落在Ｉ的商域中的全部根的方法并得到了一个判别商域上的多项式不可约的充分条件     

A Note on Exponentially Smoothed Seasonal Differences

Filtering economic time series can be justified if variations within a certain frequency interval are relevant for the problem at hand. It is shown here that exponential smoothing of seasonal differences provides a simple means of damping short oscillations, including seasonal ones.     

开放微带不连续电路的三端口网络描述

给出了开放微带不连续电路的三端口网络描述。将微带电路向空间的辐射作为一个端口来处理，成功地消除了由于忽略电路的空间辐射效应引入的电路数字模拟误差。利用时域有限差分法（ＦＤＴＤ）一次运算就可得出三端口网络的Ｓ参数矩阵的各元素，而无需任何预处理，大大地节省了ＣＰＵ时间。实际计算与已发表的数据吻合得很好，表明文中给出的三端口定义是合理有效的。此三端口微带电路的定义可容易地推广到其他非屏蔽传输线电路的分析，可广泛用于电磁兼容分析、微带天线及其他开放传输线电路的ＣＡＤ技术中。     

Adaptive interval estimation in one-way random effects models

Two-stage procedures are introduced to control the width and coverage (validity) of confidence intervals for the estimation of the mean, the between groups variance component and certain ratios of the variance components in one-way random effects models. The procedures use the pilot sample data to estimate an “optimal” group size and then proceed to determine the number of groups by a stopping rule. Such sampling plans give rise to unbalanced data, which are consequently analyzed by the harmonic mean method. Several asymptotic results concerning the proposed procedures are given along with simulation results to assess their performance in moderate sample size situations. The proposed procedures were found to effectively control the width and probability of coverage of the resulting confidence intervals in all cases and were also found to be robust in the presence of missing observations. From a practical point of view, the procedures are illustrated using a real data set and it is shown that the resulting unbalanced designs tend to require smaller sample sizes than is needed in a corresponding balanced design where the group size is arbitrarily pre-specified.     

有无与柔弱合一——从《老子衍》看王夫之对老子的研究

老子"有无合一"的境界形态哲学思维,在人生社会领域表述为与"柔弱"合一,"有无"与"柔弱"合一是对人生社会领域"无"与"无中之有"统一于"无"之境界的境界形态"天人合一"思维方式的论证。王夫之以实有形态的"有"与"有中之无"合"柔弱"于实有,一方面揭示老子境界形态"有无"思维的"虚无"思想根源;另一方面,论证了实有"有无"为思维基础的"有无"与"柔弱"合一于实有之"有"的实有形态哲学思维。     

Exact inference for a simple step-stress model with competing risks for failure from exponential distribution under Type-II censoring

In reliability analysis, accelerated life-testing allows for gradual increment of stress levels on test units during an experiment. In a special class of accelerated life tests known as step-stress tests, the stress levels increase discretely at pre-fixed time points, and this allows the experimenter to obtain information on the parameters of the lifetime distributions more quickly than under normal operating conditions. Moreover, when a test unit fails, there are often more than one fatal cause for the failure, such as mechanical or electrical. In this article, we consider the simple step-stress model under Type-II censoring when the lifetime distributions of the different risk factors are independently exponentially distributed. Under this setup, we derive the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the unknown mean parameters of the different causes under the assumption of a cumulative exposure model. The exact distributions of the MLEs of the parameters are then derived through the use of conditional moment generating functions. Using these exact distributions as well as the asymptotic distributions and the parametric bootstrap method, we discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the parameters and assess their performance through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we illustrate the methods of inference discussed here with an example.     

试论著作权限制之正当性

著作权限制的正当性可以从法律经济学、利益平衡、著作权限制的有限保护与增进民主文化原则、社会学等层面加以分析。这些分析涉及到公平与效益价值、著作权法的公共利益目标、作品创作的社会性与继承性、独创性与公有领域等方面。通过剖析著作权限制的正当性,有利于深刻认识著作权法的价值构造和立法宗旨。     

Improved Estimates and Confidence Intervals for Regenerative Simulation

In regenerative simulation, one frequently requires an estimate or a confidence interval for the ratio of the means of the two components of a certain bivariate random quantity. Estimation of this ratio has been studied by many authors and most recently by Asmussen and Rydén(2010 Asmussen, S., Rydén, T. (2010). A note on skewness in regenerative simulation. Communications in Statistics—Simulation and Computation 40: 45–57.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Here, we propose an estimate that performs better than the best of the known estimates. Our estimate is also lot simpler than the best known estimate.