Policy responses to COVID-19 pandemic waves: Cross-region and cross-sector economic impact

This paper proposes a modelling approach to assess the cross-region and cross-sector economic impacts of the restrictions imposed by governments to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. The nationwide lockdown imposed in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic is used as a benchmark. However, the adopted approach allows an ex-ante assessment of alternative policy responses, in the event of successive pandemic waves, in order to rationalise the policy intervention and reach the best possible compromise between containing the risk of contagion and reducing economic losses. The used approach consists of a non-linear programming model based on a multiregional Input-Output (I-O) table, which guarantees greater flexibility than traditional I-O analysis. It is applied to estimate both direct and indirect losses of GDP and employment produced by alternative policy responses represented by general and differentiated lockdowns. The evidence deriving from the Italian experience shows a sort of learning process through successive waves based on the introduction of increasingly flexible and tailored policy responses to the pandemic.     

Does merger & acquisition (M&A) strategy matter? A contingency perspective

This paper takes a contingency approach to investigate whether there are market performance variations for different types of M&A. Eight different types of M&A are identified in a typology based upon the conjunction of three contextual dimensions: external environmental, acquiring firm level strategy and CEO motivation. Drawing upon a sample of 1,926 domestic UK deals we evaluate the typology to determine whether the financial markets distinguish between different types of M&A. Results indicate significant market and risk-adjusted performance differences by M&A type. These confirm that a contingency approach to M&A performance has merit. We suggest that the proposed integrated typology, that recognizes the importance of multiple aspects of strategic fit to M&A performance, addresses the paradox that M&A practitioners continue to pursue deals despite widespread acceptance that they result in high failure rates.     

KENDALL'S TAU AND CONTINGENCY TABLES

Kendall's tau is a coefficient of concordance between two rankings of n objects. Its definition and large sample normal approximation are easily extended to the case where one of the rankings contains ties. In this paper, definition and normal approximation are extended further to the case where both rankings contain ties. The results are applied to give a fully distribution-free test for two-way contingency tables with ordered categories.     

ON THE USE OF X2 AS A TEST OF INDEPENDENCE IN CONTINGENCY TABLES WITH SMALL CELL EXPECTATIONS

When an r×c contingency table has many cells having very small expectations, the usual χ² approximation to the upper tail of the Pearson χ² goodness-of-fit statistic becomes very conservative. The alternatives considered in this paper are to use either a lognormal approximation, or to scale the usual χ² approximation. The study involves thousands of tables with various sample sizes, and with tables whose sizes range from 2×2 through 2×10×10. Subject to certain restrictions the new scaled χ² approximations are recommended for use with tables having an average cell expectation as small as 0·5.     

A class of log-linear models with constrained marginal distributions

Summary In the log-linear model for bivariate probability functions the conditional and joint probabilities have a simple form. This property make the log-linear parametrization useful when modeling these probabilities is the focus of the investigation. On the contrary, in the log-linear representation of bivariate probability functions, the marginal probabilities have a complex form. So the log-linear models are not useful when the marginal probabilities are of particular interest. In this paper the previous statements are discussed and a model obtained from the log-linear one by imposing suitable constraints on the marginal probabilities is introduced. This work was supported by a M.U.R.S.T. grant.     

Small area estimates for cross-classifications

Summary.  We develop a class of log-linear structural models that is suited to estimation of small area cross-classified counts based on survey data. This allows us to account for various associ- ation structures within the data and includes as a special case the restricted log-linear model underlying structure preserving estimation. The effect of survey design can be incorporated into estimation through the specification of an unbiased direct estimator and its associated covariance structure. We illustrate our approach by applying it to estimation of small area labour force characteristics in Norway.     

Bayesian analysis of contingency tables: a simulation and graphics-based approach

In this paper we present a simulation and graphics-based model checking and model comparison methodology for the Bayesian analysis of contingency tables. We illustrate the approach by testing the hypotheses of independence and symmetry on complete and incomplete simulated tables.     

基于权变理论的海洋灾害应急管理研究

海洋经济的蓬勃发展历来与海洋灾害的频繁发生紧密联系在一起,随着国家海洋强国战略的提出,对海洋灾害应急管理的研究也日显必要。本文以管理学中的权变理论为理论基础,分析了海洋灾害应急管理中的各种要素,构建了海洋灾害应急管理的权变模型,进而辩晰了权变理论视角下海洋灾害应急管理中需要注意的问题。     

Outsourcing and Performance in Entrepreneurial Firms: Contingent Relationships with Entrepreneurial Configurations*

This article develops and examines an empirical typology of entrepreneurial firms, based on organizational and life cycle characteristics. Results indicate five entrepreneurial configurations representing the essential contingent features of age, size, innovation, and governance structure (Elders, Giants, Innovators, and Owners) and one configuration representing a mix of all features (Balanced). We found that (i) outsourcing affected financial performance in entrepreneurial firms and (ii) configurations moderated this relationship. Results support the use of salient contingent features of age, size, innovation, and governance structure to predict outsourcing effectiveness in the entrepreneurial configurations. That is, entrepreneurial firms that aligned their configurational characteristics with outsourcing tended to have greater gains in financial performance. From a resource dependency perspective, managing these alignments has important implications for entrepreneurial firm performance.