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862.
实时交通信息诱导下的出行模式及效益评价 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以往针对交通出行信息系统的研究主要集中在静态交通网络上,而很少研究实时出行信息诱导下驾驶员的动态行为反应.该文研究交通信息诱导下驾驶员的动态行为反应和交通网络上的非均衡交通演化,并在此基础上评价了出行信息系统的效益.首先建立了3种情况下的交通出行行为:正常交通情况下驾驶员的路径和出发时间选择行为;交通事故发生后驾驶员在... 相似文献
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866.
基于符号时间序列方法的金融收益分析与预测 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
引入符号时间序列分析方法从大尺度的角度分析收益变化的特征,提出了确定收益变化的主要模式并预测收益水平的方法。首先将收益序列转化为符号序列,由符号序列中不同的字代表不同的收益变化模式,根据符号序列直方图,可以确定收益变化的主要模式。然后,根据各收益变化模式的概率分布,在前几个时点收益水平确定的情况下,可以推知下一个或几个时点处于不同收益水平的概率,从而实现对收益水平的预测。对上证综指、深证成指以及上证工业股指数、上证商业股指数、上证地产股指数、上证公用事业股指数共六个股票指数的收益序列进行了实证分析,确定了各指数收益的主要变化模式,并基于主要变化模式进行了收益水平的预测,从而说明了该方法的有效性和可行性。 相似文献
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We empirically investigate how time reductions in particular product development stages impact market value. Using longitudinal project data from 107 firms, we compare stage times prior to and following investments in new product development process changes. Our analysis reveals a predominance of focus on time reduction in the late stages of product development. We also find support for the existence of an inverted‐U relationship between market performance and time reductions for some of these stages: beta testing and technical implementation. Therefore, while time reductions can improve time to market, we observe a clear limit to the benefits associated with stage time reductions at particular stages. We also investigate the role of strategic contextual factors such as the extent to which a firm's patented innovations rely upon a variety, as opposed to a limited range, of diverse technology classes. The extent of this technology‐span impacts optimal stage time reductions. We perform an in‐depth post hoc analysis with a small set of firms to uncover how they should invest in stage time reduction given our empirical results. The post hoc analysis highlights that some firms are likely overinvesting in stage time reductions and destroying market value. 相似文献
868.
Jean Tirole 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2016,84(4):1291-1343
In a number of interesting environments, dynamic screening involves positive selection: in contrast with Coasian dynamics, only the most motivated remain over time. The paper provides conditions under which the principal's commitment optimum is time consistent and uses this result to derive testable predictions under permanent or transient shocks. It also identifies environments in which time consistency does not hold despite positive selection, and yet simple equilibrium characterizations can be obtained. 相似文献
869.
It has been argued that traders use their natural sensitivity to the fractal properties of price graphs to assess risk and that they are better able to do this when given price change as well as price level information. This approach implies that risk assessments should be higher when the Hurst exponents are lower, that this relationship should be stronger in the presence of price change information and that risk assessment should depend more strongly on the Hurst exponent than on the standard deviation of the series. Participants in Experiment 1 decided which of two assets was riskier by inspecting graphs of their price series. Graphs with lower Hurst exponents were selected only by those who were less emotionally stable and hence more sensitive to risk. However, when both price series and price change series were presented, the assets with lower Hurst exponents were selected by all participants. In a second experiment, participants were given both price level and price change series for a number of assets and rated the risk of trading in each one. Ratings depended more strongly on Hurst exponents than on other measures of volatility. They also depended on indicators of potential loss. Human risk assessment deviates from the way that risk is measured in modern finance theory: it requires integration of information relevant to both uncertainty and loss aversion, thereby imposing high attentional demands on traders. These demands may impair risk assessment but they can be eased by adding displays of price change information. 相似文献
870.
李敏 《宁波大学学报(人文科学版)》2009,22(6):71-75
文章介绍了围绕着习惯体的类型学争论,具体分析了汉语中习惯体的表达方法和时间指涉特点,在此基础上进一步分析了习惯体和非现实原型的相似度,认为汉语中存在习惯体并且比较接近非现实范畴。 相似文献