论瑞典学派经济分析中时间维度处理方法

受到奥地利学派的影响,瑞典学派试图将时间维度及货币因素纳入瓦尔拉斯的一般均衡理论,并为此创造出了一系列处理时间维度的方法。系统分析这些方法植根于以均衡分析为中心的方法论,阐述对于推进经济学由静态向动态的发展做出的卓越贡献,从而指导中国经济分析方法论研究。     

Sample size calculation for the one‐sample log‐rank test

In this paper, an exact variance of the one‐sample log‐rank test statistic is derived under the alternative hypothesis, and a sample size formula is proposed based on the derived exact variance. Simulation results showed that the proposed sample size formula provides adequate power to design a study to compare the survival of a single sample with that of a standard population. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

时间与自由──西方哲学史上的时间观管窥

西方哲学史中，传统的时间观包括亚里斯多德的“物理学时间”、奥古斯丁的“上帝创造与心灵延展”、康德的“时间的主体性”以及海德格尔的“本源性时间”。在剖析传统时间观及其实质的基础上理解西方当代时间现，有助于重新理解和审视西方哲学中的一些根本问题。     

展开人文学之“返本创造论”——杨义教授治学答问

一、还原诸子的五条脉络;二、蕴藏在文献功夫和田野调查中的文化哲学;三、＂文学地图＂的学术史意义;四、＂创造与建设并重＂的人文学;五、民族能力应该与时俱进。     

An Examination of the Commerce Department Leading-lndicator Approach

Bivariate time series models are built that describe the empirical relationships between industrial production and components of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). This reveals the indicators' average lead times at all points of the business cycle, the forms of the distributed lags involved, and their ability to explain later movements in economic activity. The relationship between industrial production and the CLI is also examined and used to test the contribution of the CLI toward improving time series model forecasts of the 1980 and 1981 recessions.     

The Zellner Thesis Award in Business and Economic Statistics

We analyze the modifications that occur in indirect inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. We develop a testing procedure adapted to this simulation-based estimation method, and detail its use for detecting the threshold effect in threshold moving average models with contemporaneous and lagged asymmetries. In contrast to existing threshold models, these models allow taking into account the presence of asymmetric effects of current and lagged random shocks. We use them to measure the persistence of shocks to U.S. output.     

A Note on Window Length Selection in Singular Spectrum Analysis

In singular spectrum analysis (SSA) window length is a critical tuning parameter that must be assigned by the practitioner. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of signal–noise separation and time series reconstruction in SSA that can serve as a guide to optimal window choice. We establish numerical bounds on the mean squared reconstruction error and present their almost sure limits under very general regularity conditions on the underlying data generating mechanism. We also provide asymptotic bounds for the mean squared separation error. Evidence obtained using simulation experiments and real data sets indicates that the theoretical properties are reflected in observed behaviour, even in relatively small samples, and the results indicate how, in practice, an optimal assignment for the window length can be made.     

唐诗槐意象的文化与文学观照

唐代沿袭周代以来视槐树为三公之位的文化心理，在长安的街道与宫廷广植槐树。但是，考察唐诗发现，槐的政治意蕴已经退化，从政治符号衍变成了情感符号，并成为一个重要的文学意象。槐意象既是一个时间意象，也是一个空间意象。对于游子而言，槐暗示其与故乡的距离；对于举子而言，槐暗示考试的时间。诗人的时空体验是槐意象的文学意蕴得以建构的内在机制，游宦、赴举等新的文化是外在动因。唐诗中的槐意象传达出流寓者的漂泊情怀、举子的科场心态。     

Disaster‐time Economy and an Economy of Morals: A Different Economic Order from the Market Economy under Globalization*

With the experience of two severe disasters (the Hanshin Awaji Earthquake disaster of 1995 and the Great East Japan Earthquake disaster of 2011), I wish to consider “subsistence” as human life, existence equaling the basic activities of life, an essential mutual act‐like existence economy. In this paper, I pursue a positive development of “disaster‐time economics” as a research object under the larger framework of the formation of a “moral economy,” as part of a critical process. In this paper, in order that a stricken area and society may aim at the realization of a new methodology about “creative revival” for newly developing independent research involving the state of the revival fund of a wide sense is carried out. Nevertheless, there is an overall understanding of who, in what areas, and using what methodology, has conducted research in the restoration and revival process, as well as the weak points that tend to hinder the process. There is no research on the rationality and function of public finance expenditures or national sources expenditures. Therefore, in this paper, the term “disaster‐time economy” is newly prepared. From this concept, many activities of the project, service, support, self‐efforts etc. of a social and private domain are grasped from a public sphere in connection with the process of maintenance/restoration under the disaster. The feature and subject point of the process are clarified. The market economy order that is going to be produced in this process does the basic work and determines the economic order for another self‐subsistence over life.     

论胡塞尔在《内时间意识现象学讲座》中的内时间意识结构理论

胡塞尔现象学是一门意识哲学,而内时间意识是诸意识形式中最基础的一种。在《内时间意识现象学》中,胡塞尔通过细致的分析,完成了对内时间意识之基本结构——由滞留——原印象——前摄共同构成的现在域——的描述,并且由此回答了奥古斯丁与布轮塔诺留下的时间难题。