独立学院师资队伍建设与发展浅探

随着我国高等教育进入大众化发展阶段,既要扩大高等教育规模,又要保证教学质量,已成为我国高等教育面临的突出问题,针对解决这一问题而言,师资队伍建设是独立学院可持续健康发展的关键.师资队伍建设是一个长期的积累过程,针对不同的发展阶段要找准建设的重点,采取不同的措施并进行灵活的管理,始终坚持以"引进 培养"为指导思想,采取"专、兼"相结合的方法,充分利用民办和公办二者的优势,走一条从依靠到独立和特色发展的道路,建立一支独立自主的高素质师资队伍,才能从根本上保障办学质量和提高办学效益.     

基于EMD与DVG的非线性时间序列预测模型及其应用研究

针对具有非线性和不稳定性的时间序列,提出一种结合经验模态分解(EMD)、有向可见图(DVG)网络的动态预测模型。利用经验模态分解将原时间序列分解为多个固有模态函数(IMF),然后对分解后的高频和低频IMF利用快速傅里叶变换得到各自的周期;依据每个周期,从原时间序列的尾部截取长短不一的子序列,然后采用有向可见图算法转换为多个有向网络,利用随机游走在每个有向网络中寻找与时间序列最后一个节点相似的节点;最后,依据平行线法,预测时间序列的下一个数值。原油价格的时间序列是一类典型的具有非线性和不稳定性的序列,利用此模型对WTI原油每日价格进行实证分析。研究结果表明,此模型不但可以有效地预测时间序列的变化趋势,而且具有较高的预测精度。     

THE ACADEMIC FLOW MODEL: A MARKOV-CHAIN MODEL FOR FACULTY PLANNING*

A Markov-chain faculty planning model to be used with institution-specific data is presented to describe and better understand the complex phenomena of faculty movement through an institution and on its relationship to salary costs, composition of the faculty, and faculty turnover rate. The model updates the earlier work done at Stanford University and Oregon State University by the addition of states for fixed-term appointments and for part-time FTEs to reflect accurately the current hiring trends at many institutions. The model is implemented and tested at two different institutions. The findings suggest that the model is a viable means of gaining useful insights and quantitative data on the faculty profile, salary costs, expected departures, and part-time trends. And further, when used as a planning tool, and the model apparently is comprehensive and flexible enough to analyze the probable effects, both in the short and long run, of alternative personnel policies on the faculty composition.     

后战国时期自然合理性观念研究

所谓"自然合理性",主要就是指"天时","天时"是一个时间秩序问题.时间秩序就是用时间来控制和安排政治事务的制度.自然合理性就是考虑如何通过时间的调节来使政治运作吻合于自然规则.在后战国时期,时间与权力的制度性结合和观念性渗透呈现出某种转折性态势,从而在政治思想史上构成一个特殊的重要时期.因为一种前所未有的超级权力体系的出现,将时间引入政治实践才有了稳定的制度基础.     

程序优位:遏制违反法定期限行为之关键

司法机关案件无期限拖结,虽属程序违法,但却使当事人合法的人身自由权、财产权受到严重侵犯。我国已有的三大诉讼法就期限问题了详尽的规定,仍无法杜绝。要依法规制,首先从观念上应加强执法者程序优位观念,其次,从制度上在程序规则中引入法律后果、法律责任规定,从程序法治整体上进行救济性立法设计,把违反法定期限行为纳入司法审查制度中国家赔偿的范畴,通过救济途径对该行为予以必要制约。     

Binary probability maps using a hidden conditional autoregressive Gaussian process with an application to Finnish common toad data

The Finnish common toad data of Heikkinen and Hogmander are reanalysed using an alternative fully Bayesian model that does not require a pseudolikelihood approximation and an alternative prior distribution for the true presence or absence status of toads in each 10 km×10 km square. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior probability estimates of the square-specific presences of the common toad and these are presented as a map. The results are different from those of Heikkinen and Hogmander and we offer an explanation in terms of the prior used for square-specific presence of the toads. We suggest that our approach is more faithful to the data and avoids unnecessary confounding of effects. We demonstrate how to extend our model efficiently with square-specific covariates and illustrate this by introducing deterministic spatial changes.     

Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing

We consider the competing risks set-up. In many practical situations, the conditional probability of the cause of failure given the failure time is of direct interest. We propose to model the competing risks by the overall hazard rate and the conditional probabilities rather than the cause-specific hazards. We adopt a Bayesian smoothing approach for both quantities of interest. Illustrations are given at the end.     

Penalized Pseudolikelihood Inference in Spatial Interaction Models with Covariates

Given spatially located observed random variables ( x , z = {( x _i , z _i )} _i , we propose a new method for non-parametric estimation of the potential functions of a Markov random field p ( x | z ), based on a roughness penalty approach. The new estimator maximizes the penalized log-pseudolikelihood function and is a natural cubic spline. The calculations involved do not rely on Monte Carlo simulation. We suggest the use of B-splines to stabilize the numerical procedure. An application in Bayesian image reconstruction is described.     

Bayesian prediction of waiting times in stochastic models

The authors show how saddlepoint techniques lead to highly accurate approximations for Bayesian predictive densities and cumulative distribution functions in stochastic model settings where the prior is tractable, but not necessarily the likelihood or the predictand distribution. They consider more specifically models involving predictions associated with waiting times for semi‐Markov processes whose distributions are indexed by an unknown parameter θ. Bayesian prediction for such processes when they are not stationary is also addressed and the inverse‐Gaussian based saddlepoint approximation of Wood, Booth & Butler (1993) is shown to accurately deal with the nonstationarity whereas the normal‐based Lugannani & Rice (1980) approximation cannot, Their methods are illustrated by predicting various waiting times associated with M/M/q and M/G/1 queues. They also discuss modifications to the matrix renewal theory needed for computing the moment generating functions that are used in the saddlepoint methods.     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.