收入差别过大情况下社会保持稳定的原因分析

我国基尼系数已经超过国际公认的0.4的警戒线,但并没有因此引发社会不稳定。相反,经济社会保持了持续发展的局面。就此,我们分析认为,是我国多方面的特殊国情导致了这一结果。但同时也必须认识到,我国的收入差别确实过大了,政府必须注意采取措施来缩小收入差别。     

Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator?

Summary.  We examine the claim that the well-known Petersen estimator which is used in population size estimation was not in fact used by the scientist after whom it is named. We show how, in the early years of the last century, the modern use of the Petersen estimator grew from that of the fishing coefficient. Contending with the somewhat conflicting claims that were made at the time, and what by modern standards is poor referencing of sources, we investigate where the credit lies for these concepts, and the principles and protocols which support them. We assess also how far attributions of credit were affected by practical considerations, and the history of the estimator by the nature of the problems being pursued. We identify scientists whose early work on marking and estimating fish populations deserves more credit than it has received.     

m阶积分算子及其应用

本文引人m阶积分算子，给出函数乘积u（x）．v（x）的m阶积分公式，此公式将函数乘积u(X)．v（x）的n阶导数的Leibniz公式推广到n为负整数情形，此公式同时也是函数f（x）的Taylor公式及Taylor级数的一种推广．     

棘腹蛙性腺的发育与周年变化

本文讨论了湘西棘腹蛙的性腺发育与性腺成熟系数的季节变化。实验材料来自204只幼蛙和成蛙（其中雌蛙122只，雄蛙82只）。卵巢的发育可分为6期，雌性的性成熟年龄为3年；精巢的发育可分为5期，雄性的性成熟年龄为2年。每年的5～8月为棘腹蛙的繁殖季节。同时，在文章中也描述了发育各期生殖细胞的主要形态结构。     

Bayesian analysis of human movement curves

Summary.  We consider the Bayesian analysis of human movement data, where the subjects perform various reaching tasks. A set of markers is placed on each subject and a system of cameras records the three-dimensional Cartesian co-ordinates of the markers during the reaching movement. It is of interest to describe the mean and variability of the curves that are traced by the markers during one reaching movement, and to identify any differences due to covariates. We propose a methodology based on a hierarchical Bayesian model for the curves. An important part of the method is to obtain identifiable features of the movement so that different curves can be compared after temporal warping. We consider four landmarks and a set of equally spaced pseudolandmarks are located in between. We demonstrate that the algorithm works well in locating the landmarks, and shape analysis techniques are used to describe the posterior distribution of the mean curve. A feature of this type of data is that some parts of the movement data may be missing—the Bayesian methodology is easily adapted to cope with this situation.     

Wavelet goodness-of-fit test for dependent data

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test which can be applied to hypothesis testing about the marginal distribution of dependent data. We derive a new test for the equivalent hypothesis in the space of wavelet coefficients. Such properties of the wavelet transform as orthogonality, localisation and sparsity make the hypothesis testing in wavelet domain easier than in the domain of distribution functions. We propose to test the null hypothesis separately at each wavelet decomposition level to overcome the problem of bi-dimensionality of wavelet indices and to be able to find the frequency where the empirical distribution function differs from the null in case the null hypothesis is rejected. We suggest a test statistic and state its asymptotic distribution under the null and under some of the alternative hypotheses.     

东西部公路使用效益的结构方程模型

为了解东西部地区公路线路基础设施使用效益的差异,从宏观层面建立了东西部地区客货运量与不同等级公路之间的结构方程模型,实证分析了东西部地区不同等级公路的使用效益。分析表明：东部地区除等外级公路以外,其他各等级公路的使用效益均高于西部地区;东部地区公路线路基础设施对货运量和货运周转量的效应均较大,西部地区公路线路基础设施对客运周转量的效应较大;由于经济发展阶段和产业结构特点不同,收费政策对东西部地区高速公路的使用效益产生了不同的影响。     

CONDITIONAL INFERENCE ABOUT AN EQUICORRELATION COEFFICIENT

SenGupta (1987) proposed a locally most powerful test which is globally (one sided) unbiased, and an estimator of p, the equicorrelation coefficient of a standard symmetric multivariate normal (SSMN) distribution. Here we use the idea in Williams (1984) to illustrate the construction and use of ancillary statistics to make inference about p. The test and confidence intervals based on this construction are conditionally optimal.     

核事故早期应急群决策模型研究

有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。     

甘肃省入境客流时空演变特征分析

经过将近30多年的发展,甘肃省入境旅游旅游业取得了长足的发展,入境旅游业的发展拓宽了甘肃省旅游产业的发展空间。但由于受到各种因素的制约,甘肃省入境客流的变化发展有着自身独特的规律和特点,特别是从甘肃省入境旅游发展的外部环境看,其时间和空间演变的特征十分典型,特别是时空分布的不平衡性是其长期以来最显著的特征。