我国个人信用评级办法研究

信贷消费是扩大内需，拉动我国经济发展的重要举措，目前发展中存在商家、银行对消费者缺乏安全感、信贷消费条件苛刻等诸多问题。要消除信贷消费的这些障碍，必须推进个人资信评级市场的发展。本文研究了国内银行及国际著名的消费者个人信用调查公司的个人信用评级方法和运作模式，提出了适合我国情况的个人信用评级方法原则、征信来源和评级模型，形成了适合中国居民的个人信用评级办法方案。     

违约风险、房地产贷款市场博弈与房地产价格

本文从事后激励的角度,构建了一个关于房地产个人贷款违约与银行反应策略的博弈模型,对中国房地产价格下跌的诱发机制以及家庭和银行的最优决策进行了理论分析。在此基础上选择35个大中城市作为研究样本,利用面板数据回归模型对相关理论推论进行了实证检验。理论推演和实证研究表明,家庭收入下降和房地产贷款违约是诱发房地产价格下跌的关键因素。提高购房首付比,降低房地产贷款价值比以及保持房地产贷款市场结构的适度集中,既可以抑制房地产价格过快上涨,也可以预防房地产价格发生暴跌风险。当房地产贷款出现违约时,为了避免房地产价格进入下降螺旋,银行的最优策略不是取消房地产抵押品的赎回权,而是采取积极的信贷刺激措施以稳住房地产价格。贷款市场份额占比越高的银行越有激励这样做。     

经济地位对信用卡逾期的影响

我国信用卡业务的迅猛发展助推了消费经济的快速发展,但信用卡的逾期行为不容忽视。收入代表了一个人的经济地位,是信用卡按时还款的保障。本文基于某商业银行信用卡客户的逾期数据,以持卡人的经济地位为视角,分析了经济地位对信用卡逾期行为的影响。研究结果表明,我国商业银行信用卡持卡人的逾期行为具有显著的经济特征,收入对信用卡逾期的影响呈“U”型的非线性特征,即收入较低和收入较高的持卡人逾期的可能性较高,收入处于中间的持卡人逾期的可能性较低。进一步的研究发现,中年群体、工作单位稳定者、有房者会降低经济地位对信用卡逾期行为的非线性影响,而账龄较长的持卡人提升了这种影响。本文的研究为全社会建立良好的信用卡用卡环境,商业银行高效处理信用卡逾期,改进和完善商业银行信用卡风险管理提供了关键证据。     

Particle Learning for Fat-Tailed Distributions

It is well known that parameter estimates and forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about the tail behavior of the error distribution. In this article, we develop an approach to sequential inference that also simultaneously estimates the tail of the accompanying error distribution. Our simulation-based approach models errors with a t_ν-distribution and, as new data arrives, we sequentially compute the marginal posterior distribution of the tail thickness. Our method naturally incorporates fat-tailed error distributions and can be extended to other data features such as stochastic volatility. We show that the sequential Bayes factor provides an optimal test of fat-tails versus normality. We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the rate of learning of tail thickness under a default Jeffreys prior. We illustrate our sequential methodology on the British pound/U.S. dollar daily exchange rate data and on data from the 2008–2009 credit crisis using daily S&P500 returns. Our method naturally extends to multivariate and dynamic panel data.     

Covid-19 and the euthanasia of interest rates: A critical assessment of central bank policy in our times

We compare the New Keynesian and Austrian explanations for low interest rates in the light of the Corona crisis. From a New Keynesian perspective low interest rates are the result of structural changes in the society and the economy as well as the cyclical downswing triggered by the Corona pandemic. In contrast, from the perspective of Austrian economic theory, interest rates have been pushed down on trend by central banks for a long time to stimulate growth, with the global financial crisis of 2007/08 and the Corona crisis of 2020 acting as powerful accelerators of the euthanasia of interest. New Keynesian theory would suggest that interest rates can be adjusted upward again when conditions change, without creating economic and financial disturbances. Against this, Austrian theory finds that central banks have backed themselves into a corner by creating persistent low-interest expectations.     

论促进企业自主创新的金融政策安排

为了大力促进企业自主创新,对现有金融政策进行了梳理,分析了金融政策存在的科技型中小企业融资难、担保体系不健全、股权融资渠道不畅和金融创新不足等问题,提出了改善服务、发展风险投资、完善创投、支持知识产权融资等促进企业自主创新的金融政策安排的建议。     

国际资本约束与顺周期财政政策

本文首次建立理论模型证明了国际资本约束是发展中国家顺周期财政政策形成的重要动因。同时基于125个发展中国家1960-2016年的面板数据,得到了与理论预期一致且稳健的经验证据：发展中国家呈现出顺周期财政政策的典型事实。在充分考虑内生性问题,引入加权的贸易伙伴实际GDP增长率和加权的美国国债实际收益率作为有效工具变量后,这一结论仍然成立;主权信用评级每下调1个级别,顺周期财政政策倾向将会增加5.83%。这种国际资本市场的劣势地位所引致的国际资本强约束,是发展中国家采用顺周期财政政策的关键原因。本文的研究在经验上丰富了关于发展中国家顺周期财政政策成因的讨论,为深化发展中国家之间的国际合作与互助提供了政策启示。     

基于改进Credit Metrics模型的商业银行信用风险度量及实证研究

信用风险是我国商业银行面临的主要风险.随着美国金融危机的蔓延,各国银行业已意识到加强信用风险监管的必要性.研究信用风险特征,建立合适的度量模型准确地度量我国商业银行的信用风险,是降低信用风险的必然要求,而Credit Metrics模型以其擅长度量非交易性资产的信用风险而著称.作者首先对Credit Metrics模型加以改进,使用我国的信用评级转移矩阵,其次考虑宏观经济和企业本身的非系统性风险,重新调整信用评级转移矩阵.最后以某家银行为基础,使用Credit Met-rics模型进行实证研究,同时对于模型中的部分参数进行修正并对模型加以改进,从而完善CreditMetrics模型在我国商业银行业的应用.     

信用卡服务质量关键影响因素的实证研究

本文依据PZB服务质量五维度理论将银行信用卡服务质量维度分为可靠性、响应性、安全性、移情性和增益性，通过实地调研对9家主要商业银行信用卡服务质量现状进行了测评，并利用SPSS统计软件和模糊评价方法，试图找出银行信用卡服务质量关键影响因素，评价各家银行信用卡服务质量水平以及存在的主要差距，进而提出了银行提高信用卡服务质量的对策建议。     

From tackling poverty to achieving financial inclusion—The changing role of British credit unions in low income communities

This paper offers an analysis of the changing role of co-operative credit unions in tackling poverty and promoting financial inclusion in Britain. It examines the reality of poverty in low income communities and endeavours to critique the actions, methodologies and initiatives currently being adopted by credit unions to achieve financial inclusion. It examines the role of the UK government in its support for credit unions and offers an early analysis of HM Treasury's Financial Inclusion Fund. The paper argues that credit unions are best placed within the financial services industry to make an impact within financially excluded communities.