中美房贷险风险保障机制的比较研究

针对当前房贷险颓势引致运行不畅现象,应用比较分析方法,借鉴美国房贷险风险保障机制的先进经验,并结合我国的国情,找出并剖析影响房贷险正常运行的诸多因素,提出建立有效房贷险风险保障机制的解决方案与政策建议。     

Pricing and momentum of syndicated credit in Europe

We investigate the determinants of syndicated loan prices for European borrowers, spanning the entire period of credit expansion and crisis. We construct a large data base consisting of 2102 rated syndicated loan deals from 1990 to 2008 in twenty three countries and ten economic sectors. We investigate the effects on the spread paid over the risk free rate of three major groups of factors: loan characteristics, borrower characteristics and characteristics of country of the borrower, using both qualitative and quantitative variables in a hedonic regression. The results show that all three groups are significant joint determinants of prices of syndicated credit. Our results confirm the existing literature but also provide for first time results stemming form the risk characteristics of the borrower and the country of the borrower. It is shown that distance-to-default as well as aggregate risk associated with country of the borrower are of great concern to the lenders and hence significantly affect the pricing of syndicated loans. Furthermore, we report that financial institutions and public utilities are able to negotiate for cheaper loans, but this result is reversed when financing is for acquisition purposes. Overall, risk, liquidity, solvency and sustainable performance by both the borrower and its domicile country are key determinants of syndicated loan prices.     

新时期地方政府诚信问题分析

诚信是社会主义核心价值观的重要内容,是发展市场经济和构建和谐社会的基石。地方政府诚信处于社会诚信体系的核心地位,对经济健康发展与社会和谐进步具有决定性影响。新的历史时期,地方政府诚信缺失问题突出,对区域发展、社会和谐和政府权威等构成了危害和挑战。本文在分析地方政府诚信现状的基础上,剖析了地方政府失信的成因,有针对性地提出了加强地方政府诚信建设的对策建议。     

欧洲学分转换与积累系统:发展历程、运行机制及启示

创立于1989年的欧洲学分转换与积累系统经历了萌芽、确立、推广和完善四个阶段,从仅具有转换单一功能发展到具有转换与积累双重功能,从只为高等教育服务拓展到为终身教育服务,在欧盟教育发展中扮演了重要角色。分析欧洲学分转换与积累系统的运行机制,剖析其关键要素、运行流程、证明文件等,对于中国区域学分银行的建设具有如下启示:加强法律政策保障、着眼组织保障、强化校际合作、开发系统平台和完善核心要素。     

Continuous Time Wishart Process for Stochastic Risk

Risks are usually represented and measured by volatility–covolatility matrices. Wishart processes are models for a dynamic analysis of multivariate risk and describe the evolution of stochastic volatility–covolatility matrices, constrained to be symmetric positive definite. The autoregressive Wishart process (WAR) is the multivariate extension of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross (CIR) process introduced for scalar stochastic volatility. As a CIR process it allows for closed-form solutions for a number of financial problems, such as term structure of T-bonds and corporate bonds, derivative pricing in a multivariate stochastic volatility model, and the structural model for credit risk. Moreover, the Wishart dynamics are very flexible and are serious competitors for less structural multivariate ARCH models.     

Dynamic Savings Decisions in Agricultural Environments With Incomplete Markets

We develop a methodology for examining savings behavior in rural areas of developing countries that explicitly incorporates the sequential decision process in agriculture. The approach is used to examine the relative importance of alternative forms of savings in the presence and absence of formal financial intermediaries. Our results, based on stage-specific panel data from Pakistan, provide evidence that the presence of financial intermediaries importantly influences the use of formal savings and transfers for income smoothing. We also find that there are significant biases in evaluations of the savings-income relationship that are inattentive to the within-year dynamics of agricultural production.     

农村信用社省联社改革的现实审视与路径选择

农村信用社省联社改革虽然在特定历史阶段发挥了积极作用,但由于改革的不彻底性,双重身份的法律定位模糊,股权关系错位造成权责归属倒置,对基层社的独立自主经营造成干扰,难以避免地方政府的干预,地方不断提高农村信用社法人层级的趋势明显,信用社产权制度边缘化,面临＂内部人控制＂和＂外部人干预＂的双重风险。深化省联社改革应渐进式改良,对省联社职能边界重新界定,强化服务、弱化管理,抑制其转型为银行总部的利益冲动。地方政府应通过职能转变合理履行管理职能。     

Market-Based Credit Ratings

We present a methodology for rating in real-time the creditworthiness of public companies in the U.S. from the prices of traded assets. Our approach uses asset pricing data to impute a term structure of risk neutral survival functions or default probabilities. Firms are then clustered into ratings categories based on their survival functions using a functional clustering algorithm. This allows all public firms whose assets are traded to be directly rated by market participants. For firms whose assets are not traded, we show how they can be indirectly rated by matching them to firms that are traded based on observable characteristics. We also show how the resulting ratings can be used to construct loss distributions for portfolios of bonds. Finally, we compare our ratings to Standard & Poors and find that, over the period 2005 to 2011, our ratings lead theirs for firms that ultimately default.     

Simulation/Regression Pricing Schemes for CVA Computations on CDO Tranches

We devise simulation/regression numerical schemes for pricing the CVA on CDO tranches, where CVA stands for Credit Valuation Adjustment, or price correction accounting for the defaultability of a counterparty in an OTC derivatives transaction. This is done in the setup of a continuous-time Markov chain model of default times, in which dependence between credit names is represented by the possibility of simultaneous defaults. The main idea of this article is to perform the nonlinear regressions which are used for computing conditional expectations, in the time variable for a given state of the model, rather than in the space variables at a given time in diffusive setups. This idea is formalized as a lemma which is valid in any continuous-time Markov chain model. It is then implemented on the targeted application of CVA computations on CDO tranches.     

On the Evolution and Asymptotic Analysis of Open Markov Populations: Application to Consumption Credit

In this paper, we study, by means of randomized sampling, the long-run stability of some open Markov population fed with time-dependent Poisson inputs. We show that state probabilities within transient states converge—even when the overall expected population dimension increases without bound—under general conditions on the transition matrix and input intensities.

Following the convergence results, we obtain ML estimators for a particular sequence of input intensities, where the sequence of new arrivals is modeled by a sigmoidal function. These estimators allow for the forecast, by confidence intervals, of the evolution of the relative population structure in the transient states.

Applying these results to the study of a consumption credit portfolio, we estimate the implicit default rate.