论"合会"的信任机制

作为国家正规金融组织之外的民间非正规金融互助组织——"合会",在乡土社会中发挥了重要的经济和社会功能。尽管缺乏国家正规金融制度的外在监控,但由于其成员结构不仅蕴含着亲缘性利他的社会生物学基础,而且,乡土社会所具有的"熟人社会"和"不流动性"的结构特征与传统社会的价值观等多位一体,构成了坚实的特殊信任,形成了具有本土化特色的信任文化。     

基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价研究

GCRM模型与ASRF模型相比,能给出与经济资本测度目标相一致的资本数量,而现有文献对GCRM模型的到期收益率没有给出明确的刻画,本文则通过假设资产的到期收益率与其信用经济资本相关,得出了基于GCRM模型的信用经济资本测度和贷款定价方法,它能够刻画借款者的违约概率、违约损失率,以及商业银行的风险偏好（目标支付概率）和资本融资成本对经济资本和贷款定价的影响,为商业银行相关领域的决策提供了参考。     

企业经营管理预警：主成分分析在logistic回归方法中的应用

logistic回归分析是度量企业信用风险的一种主流方法,它的假设比较符合经济现实和金融数据分布的特点。但是考虑到现阶段我国上市公司的信用数据具有的高维性和高相关性等特点对logistic分析产生的负面影响,本文在logistic分析中引入了能够有效降维和消除logistic方程共线性等问题的主成分分析,并对我国沪深两市上市公司的经营失败进行了实证研究,结果表明结合主成分分析法的logistic回归分析在模型解释和预测准确率等力面均优于简单的logistic分析。     

Cross-border credit networks,banking risk contagion and suppression effects

From the perspective of risk contagion, it is difficult to balance the benefits and costs of banking globalization. We use data on cross-border syndicated loans intended to build heterogeneous credit networks among banking sectors in various countries to explore the introduction of banking risks into the network. Via social network analysis (SNA), we find that the global credit network has phased characteristics, and it is a source of exposure to global banking risks. However, the more important network position, that is, the greater centrality, identified shows that the banking industry is more stable. To explain these findings, we present and estimate the banking risk contagion model and the suppression effect model of contagion. Evidence suggests that the international credit network is the channel of risk contagion, and the long-term loan network and nonfinancial borrower network have a stronger contagion effect. Exogenous banking supervision and network endogenous closeness centrality can inhibit risk contagion. From a policy perspective, these findings indicate the need to supervise high-risk cross-border loans and maintain independence in the international credit network.Data Availability StatementThe data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author, [Heng Zhao, email: zhao0501@mail.dlut.edu.cn], upon reasonable request.     

Optimal payment time under permissible delay in payment for products with deterioration

A permissible credit period is usually allowed to a retailer to pay back the dues without paying any interest to the supplier. The retailer can pay the supplier either at the end of the credit period or later incurring interest charges on the unpaid balance for the overdue period. The retailer is expected to settle the account at a time before the end of the inventory cycle time because the payable interest rate is generally higher than the earned interest rate. A model for optimal cycle and payment times is developed here for a retailer in a deteriorating-item inventory situation where a supplier allows a specified credit period to the retailer for payment without penalty. Under these conditions, this supplier-and-retailer system is modelled as a cost minimization problem to determine the optimal payment time under various system parameters. An iterative search procedure is applied to solve the problem, and the overall findings indicate that the retailer always has an option to pay after the permissible credit period depending on unit purchase and selling price, the deterioration rate of the products and the interest rate.     

中国省域信贷风险判别分析

现阶段，商业银行信贷仍是我国社会资金配置的主要方式。出于盈利和风险考虑，商业银行信贷行为天然具有顺周期特征。为实现稳增长目标，政府更倾向于逆周期调节。受到地方财政收支状况影响，省级地方政府会采取不同方式、不同程度地干预省域资金配置。十九大报告明确指出，要健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架。因此，省域信贷风险判别是一个动态过程，需在经济周期与宏观审慎政策框架下整体考虑。在此背景下，本文基于新古典经济学分析框架，建立了2008年以来省域信贷风险识别模型，研究发现，第一，地方财政支出收入比与不良贷款率存在正向影响关系，资本回报率与不良贷款率存在负向影响关系，且地方财政支出收入比对不良贷款率的影响程度更大；第二，依据分类准则，属于信贷高风险的省域分别是：河南，海南，重庆，四川，贵州，云南，陕西，甘肃，青海，宁夏，新疆，西藏；第三，在地方财政支出收入比、资本回报率的显著作用影响下，我国各省域不良贷款率呈现U型变化，不良贷款率阈值为1.49%，即当不良贷款率大于1.49%时，省域贷款风险较高；第四，当我国资本回报率处于企稳阶段，不良贷款率处于低于阈值的谷底阶段，且省域间风险差异性较小。当我国资本回报率处于下行阶段时，不良贷款率上升至阈值线以上，且省域间风险差异性较大。     

基于财务指标的中小企业信用评估研究--以大连市为例

基于相关文献回顾的基础上，选取反映中小企业盈利性、偿债性、营运性和成长性的13个财务指标，采用因子分析法拟合为4个公共因子，通过因子载荷建立了信用水平综合得分函数，结果表明，样本企业中大冷股份、时代万恒和大橡塑的信用状况不甚理想，需引起关注。最后，从企业、银行和政府等方面对防范中小企业信用风险及加强信用水平建设提出了对策建议。     

青年在网贷中的主体地位——网贷用户调查报告

近年来,网贷引起了人们的高度关注。尽管网贷目前存在着一些问题,但是我们依然可以从其飞速发展中看到其光明的未来。调查显示,网贷用户以80后青年为主,他们利用网贷平台投资理财获取收益,或者通过网贷平台融资借款,解决资金周转、投资创业或者大额消费等资金需求。起步中的网贷有着不可避免的风险,但是,大部分网贷用户是青年,我们不能对此视而不见,共青团创建"青年贷",将有效化解网贷中的风险,最大限度地为创业青年提供资金支持,从而有效地联系和凝聚起网贷中的广大青年。     

信用评分模型的设计与决策分析

本文对商业银行信贷业务中的贷款者的信用问题,运用决策分析提出了信用评分的设计原理及临界分值的确定方法,给出了最优贷款策略的期望收益和风险的计算公式。最后,以一例说明之。