联邦德国阿登纳时期对美政策述评

对美政策是联邦德国阿登纳时期对外政策的主要支柱之一。阿登纳政府围绕主权恢复与加入西方、重新武装、经济重建、德国的统一、核武装等领域对美国开展了大量的外交工作,寻求美国的帮助与合作,实现其利益的最大化。该时期的对美政策在执行过程中既有对美国的"依附"性,又有相对的独立性,同时还带有强烈的意识形态色彩。它是阿登纳政府为追求本国根本利益,进行实用主义外交的集中体现。     

国际资本流动、对外贸易和金融发展对新兴经济体全要素生产率的影响

资本流动和对外贸易是新兴经济体融入外部经济的两种基本途径,金融发展是其重要的内部推动力。新兴经济体在全球化进程中将会面临怎样的难题？运用随机前沿生产函数对全要素生产率进行分析与评价,研究发现：资本流入、进口资本品与服务是新兴经济体技术溢出的重要途径,金融深化对其所带来的技术溢出起到了媒介作用;资本流动与贸易又推动了金融市场的发展,彼此之间形成了交互效应;新兴经济体的技术效率总体上呈现上升的态势,但在效率值上存在着明显差异。新兴经济体对国外资本、技术与市场存在着路径依赖,这已成为制约其持续发展所面临的共同难题。     

Long-range dependence analysis of Internet traffic

Long-range-dependent time series are endemic in the statistical analysis of Internet traffic. The Hurst parameter provides a good summary of important self-similar scaling properties. We compare a number of different Hurst parameter estimation methods and some important variations. This is done in the context of a wide range of simulated, laboratory-generated, and real data sets. Important differences between the methods are highlighted. Deep insights are revealed on how well the laboratory data mimic the real data. Non-stationarities, which are local in time, are seen to be central issues and lead to both conceptual and practical recommendations.     

Generalized choice models for categorical time series

The NDARMA models of Jacobs and Lewis (1983) allow the modeling of categorical processes with an ARMA-like serial dependence structure. These models can be represented through a backshift mechanism, and we analyze marginal and bivariate properties of the resulting backshift process. Motivated by this backshift mechanism, we define the new class of generalized choice (GC) models, which include the usual NDARMA models as a special case, and we derive results describing the marginal and bivariate distribution of the GC model. We discuss implications concerning DMA(∞) models and the serial dependence structure of NDARMA models. Examples show that the family of GC models allows creating sparsely parametrized models for categorical processes with different types of serial dependence structure.     

Dependence or Independence: Which Is the Dirty Word?

We are suspicious of the mob, the gang, the enmeshed relationship. We also know no one can be an island. Our heroes tend to be loners – the solo detective, those who live free under the stars – but we esteem individuals who devote themselves to others. We want to belong, but we don't want to be owned. Like a game of Snakes and Ladders, there are trap‐doors and escalators in the theme Dependence or independence: Which is the dirty word? This paper explores the frisson and the conflicts in the complex relationships between dependence and independence. Following an introductory vignette, a schematic account is presented of the diverse ways ‘dependence’ and ‘independence’ can be theoretically interpreted including by systems theory. A deeper attention is then paid to honouring the importance of ‘dependence’ and ‘independence’ as key referents in everyday subjectivity. A first‐person account of mental illness is drawn on to illustrate this theme. A final section examines the implications for family therapy practice that arise from the above analysis.     

意识形态及其对制度变迁的影响

文章从哲学和经济学两个角度论述了意识形态的含义,重点分析了意识形态在制度变迁中的作用:一是它决定了我们进行制度选择的"菜单",是制度变迁的约束集;二是由于其制度辩护功能,形成了路径依赖,往往会影响高效率制度的选择.     

第三配置及其路径依赖偏好

对资源的配置除市场和国家外还存在着第三种力量,即本文所提出的“第三配置”。结合中国历史与现实考察,第三配置表现出明显的路径依赖偏好,对中国转轨经济中第三配置进行新设计乃是时代赋予我们的新的历史使命。     

多维时间序列的条件独立性检验及其在股市相依关系中的应用

提出多维时间序列中各分量之间直接联系存在性的信息论检验方法,构造了条件互信息统计量检验分量间的条件独立性,统计量的显著性用置换检验决定.将提出的方法应用到国际股票市场,研究收益率序列相依关系,结果表明,此方法能有效检验各分量之间的直接联系和间接联系.     

内部与外部保障对无工作者就业意愿的影响研究 ——采用中国劳动力动态调查数据的异质性分析

无工作劳动力在无工作期间的生活保障既包括来自家庭外部的社会保险及政府救济等,也包括来自家庭内部的储蓄及资产收入等.由于信息不对称及道德风险的存在,外部保障可能引发"福利依赖"效应而降低无工作劳动力的就业意愿,也可能通过补贴工作搜寻成本而提高其就业意愿;而内部保障则会对无工作劳动力产生直接的就业压力,进而提高其就业意愿,...     

A Hierarchical Product Development Planning Framework

Uncertainty in new product development (NPD) planning embraces market, creative, technological, and process dimensions to a much greater extent than in non‐NPD project planning. Yet, NPD management is becoming increasingly decentralized, both within the firm and across the supply chain. Hence, planning for NPD uncertainty often results in path‐dependent scenarios cutting across the strategic, tactical, and operational levels of planning. To coordinate this resulting complexity, we propose a stochastic hierarchical product development planning framework with multiple recourses, i. e., corrective actions, to maximize performance across a firm's entire NPD program. We also argue the necessity for a fourth planning level, the infrastructural, that reestablishes norms for market projections, technological forecasts, scheduling, and requirements as latent uncertainty in the environment is continually revealed. An illustration from the automotive industry is presented to demonstrate a deployment of our framework. We additionally discuss the applicability of this framework for managing NPD capabilities over time.