科学证据DNA检验及其结论之研究

由于国内DNA鉴定在刑事司法领域内的迅速普遍应用,基于采集鉴定材料法律正当程序、DNA鉴定结论的审查和判断的内在规律要求,本文对DNA鉴定原理和特征、鉴定样本的采集与法律规范、DNA鉴定结论证明力和证据能力三个方面进行了论述,从确保DNA鉴定的科学性和正当程序原则出发建议完善刑事诉讼法的相关规定,立法制定<刑事案件DNA检验条例>,在DNA实验室系统建立专门的质量控制和质量保证标准体系.     

Latent class analysis risk profiles: An effective method to predict a first re-report of maltreatment?

Recurrence of child maltreatment is a significant concern causing substantial individual, family and societal cost. Variable-based approaches to identifying targets for intervention may not reflect the reality that families may experience multiple co-occurring risks. An alternative approach was tested using baseline data from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being (NSCAW) I and II to develop Latent Class Analysis models of family risk classes using variables derived from prior studies of re-reporting. The samples were collected approximately 10 years apart offering a chance to test how the approach might be impacted by demographic or policy shifts. The association between baseline classes and later re-reports was tested using both samples. A two-class model of high versus low presence of baseline risk resulted that was strongly associated with later likelihood of re-report and results were relatively stable across the two studies. Person-centered approaches may hold promise in the early identification of families that require a more comprehensive array of supports to prevent re-reports of maltreatment.     

Mobile lives,immutable facts: family reunification of children in Finland

The right to family has been confirmed by myriad human rights covenants and it forms an acknowledged part of migration policies. Yet family reunification has become an increasingly contested issue, something reflected in a recent restrictive turn in migration policies throughout Europe. Policy reforms speak of a growing polarity between, on the one hand, adherence to the ‘best interest of the child’ and family life, and on the other, suspicion of fraud. This article examines these tensions via exploration of family reunification procedures in Finland, particularly applications sponsored by minors, thereby drawing attention to the notion of ‘the anchor child’. Drawing on decisions by the Administrative Court of Helsinki as well as interviews with experts and the people concerned, the writers discuss how these polarities are managed in practice, centring their analysis on a quest for truth that deploys various methods, particularly DNA analysis and oral hearings. Ultimately the article highlights an intrinsic paradox in family reunification policies that incorporates the aspiration to produce facts amounting to ‘immutable mobiles’ (Latour, Bruno. 1986. ‘Visualization and cognition: Thinking with the eyes and hands.’ Knowledge and Society 6 (6): 1–40.) and the evident weight of contingent temporalities.     

Phase I monitoring of social network with baseline periods using poisson regression

Social network analysis is an important analytic tool to forecast social trends by modeling and monitoring the interactions between network members. This paper proposes an extension of a statistical process control method to monitor social networks by determining the baseline periods when the reference network set is collected. We consider probability density profile (PDP) to identify baseline periods using Poisson regression to model the communications between members. Also, Hotelling T² and likelihood ratio test (LRT) statistics are developed to monitor the network in Phase I. The results based on signal probability indicate a satisfactory performance for the proposed method.     

Give your child and adolescent mental health service a health economics makeover

Specialist child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) must make decisions about what treatments to provide to whom, when, where and how, within limited budgets. This raises questions about how services make such decisions, to best meet the mental health needs of their catchment. The methods and practices of Health Economics, a field with considerable expertise in measuring performance in health systems, can help CAMHS make better informed decisions regarding service provision. This paper identifies a process through a set of focused questions to help CAMHS examine and improve their performance. The aspects covered are service profile, costs, conceptualisation of outcomes and identification of value for money. The recommended approach should help CAMHS redirect resources to maximise benefits for their catchment population.     

An EM type estimation procedure for the destructive exponentially weighted Poisson regression cure model under generalized gamma lifetime

In this paper, we assume the number of competing causes to follow an exponentially weighted Poisson distribution. By assuming the initial number of competing causes can undergo destruction and that the population of interest has a cure fraction, we develop the EM algorithm for the determination of the MLEs of the model parameters of such a general cure model. This model is more flexible than the promotion time cure model and also provides an interesting and realistic interpretation of the biological mechanism of the occurrence of an event of interest. Instead of assuming a particular parametric distribution for the lifetime, we assume the lifetime to belong to the wider class of generalized gamma distribution. This allows us to carry out a model discrimination to select a parsimonious lifetime distribution that provides the best fit to the data. Within the EM framework, a two-way profile likelihood approach is proposed to estimate the shape parameters. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination is carried out by means of the likelihood ratio test and information-based methods. Finally, a data on melanoma is analyzed for illustrative purpose.     

Multiple-index varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data

In haemodialysis patients, vascular access type is of paramount importance. Although recent studies have found that central venous catheter is often associated with poor outcomes and switching to arteriovenous fistula is beneficial, studies have not fully elucidated how the effect of switching of access on outcomes changes over time for patients on dialysis and whether the effect depends on switching time. In this paper, we characterise the switching access type effect on outcomes for haemodialysis patients. This is achieved by using a new class of multiple-index varying-coefficient (MIVC) models. We develop a new estimation procedure for MIVC models based on local linear, profile least-square method and Cholesky decomposition. Monte Carlo simulation studies show excellent finite sample performance. Finally, we analyse the dialysis data using our method.     

A profile Godambe information of power transformations for ARCH time series

Due to Godambe (1985 Godambe, V.P. (1985). The foundation of finite sample estimation in stochastic processes. Biometrika 72:419–428.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), one can obtain the Godambe optimum estimating functions (EFs) each of which is optimum (in the sense of maximizing the Godambe information) within a linear class of EFs. Quasi-likelihood scores can be viewed as special cases of the Godambe optimum EFs (see, for instance, Hwang and Basawa, 2011 Hwang, S.Y., Basawa, I.V. (2011). Godambe estimating functions and asymptotic optimal inference. Stat. Probab. Lett. 81:1121–1127.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). The paper concerns conditionally heteroscedastic time series with unknown likelihood. Power transformations are introduced in innovations to construct a class of Godambe optimum EFs. A “best” power transformation for Godambe innovation is then obtained via maximizing the “profile” Godambe information. To illustrate, the KOrea Stock Prices Index is analyzed for which absolute value transformation and square transformation are recommended according to the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) models, respectively.     

功率器件有 JTE 结构的电场的数值分析与模拟

本文用 damped-Newton(DN)法求解由一般非线性方程获得的Poisson 方程。研究了阻尼因子λ对其收敛性和求解效率的影响。利用此方法计算了横向表面掺杂为 Gauss 分布的器件的归一化电场与掺杂浓度和掺杂层宽度的关系。     

Probabilistic Expert Systems for Forensic Inference from Genetic Markers

We present a number of real and fictitious examples in illustration of a new approach to analysing complex cases of forensic identification inference. This is effected by careful restructuring of the relevant pedigrees as a Probabilistic Expert System. Existing software can then be used to perform the required inferential calculations. Specific complications which are readily handled by this approach include missing data on one or more relevant individuals, and genetic mutation. The method is particularly valuable for disputed paternity cases, but applies also to certain criminal cases.