STOCHASTIC COST-VOLUME-PROFIT ANALYSIS WITH A LINEAR DEMAND FUNCTION

In this paper we incorporate a linear demand function to model the price-volume causal relationship into stochastic cost-volume-profit (CVP) analysis. We assume that the objective function is to maximize expected profit; other objective functions are also discussed and compared. A linear stochastic model follows from which probabilistic statements can be easily obtained if the random variables are assumed to be multivariate normal. The basic framework is shown to be a special case of project value maximization where project value is the cash flow of the project discounted for time and risk according to the capital asset pricing model. Moreover, an intertemporal extension that considers inventory is developed. In summary, a new approach to stochastic CVP analysis that incorporates the management decision process in an uncertain environment is developed.     

转型经济下民营企业家个体特质、情境对公司创业的驱动机制 ——基于QCA的探索性研究

在中国经济转型的大市场环境下,企业如何将公司创业的意愿成功付诸于创业行动,是学术界广泛讨论的话题。文章利用全国私营企业调查问卷表数据,以102家私营企业作为案例样本,通过模糊集定性比较分析(QCA)方法将企业家个体特质与情境两个层面整合,同时从这两个层面进一步细分,去探讨组态效应对公司创业的多重并发影响机制。经过数据分析可以获知,企业家的社群式身份是高公司创业活跃度的必要条件,且导致高公司创业活跃度有四条组态(路径);导致非高公司创业活跃度的有一条组态(路径),两者之间存在非对称关系。     

南京中山植物园游憩功能满意度评价研究

随着植物园"旅游经济"的发展,植物园在承担植物科学研究及科普功能的同时,也成为公众日常休闲的重要绿地。本文选取南京中山植物园作为研究对象,建立评价体系并运用模糊综合评价法对游客满意度进行研究,探寻影响植物园游憩功能的显著因子,为未来植物园规划设计提供参考。结果表明:游客对南京中山植物园的游憩功能达到基本满意水平。其中,植物物种多样性、景区分布、建筑景观、声景观的满意度较高,滨水景观的满意度评价值较低。通过Pearson相关系数发现植物色彩丰富度、科普场所、科普内容是影响游客满意度的显著因子。运用IPA图对16项评价因子进行重要度-满意度分析,并对各象限内的因子提出改进方向。最后基于游憩功能满意度评价结果,提出改进策略:加大对植物园休息设施、卫生设施、娱乐设施和商业服务设施的投入;更新科普方式,增添特色游憩主题园区;完善现有道路体系,增强对北部专类园的可达性;增加色叶植物的种类、提高色彩丰富度等。以期为中山植物园游憩功能的优化及其他植物园的规划设计提供借鉴。     

Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one- or a two-point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.     

A NOTE ON HOLDING COSTS AND LOT-SIZE ERRORS

This note examines the sensitivity of the basic economic-order-quantity inventory model to lot-size errors when holding costs are assumed to be a strictly increasing (though not necessarily linear) function of average inventory. In particular, we show that the penalty associated with ordering either too much or too little is a function not only of the size of the error but of the shape of the holding-cost curve as well. We demonstrate that, under certain conditions, even relatively small lot-size errors can be extremely costly.     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques PRINCIPLES OF MULTIOBJECTIVE OPTIMIZATION*

This paper attempts to isolate and analyze the principal ideas of multiobjective optimization. We do this without casting aspersions on single-objective optimization or championing any one multiobjective technique. We examine each fundamental idea for strengths and weaknesses and subject two—efficiency and utility—to extended consideration. Some general recommendations are made in light of this analysis. Besides the simple advice to retain single-objective optimization as a possible approach, we suggest that three broad classes of multiobjective techniques are very promising in terms of reliably, and believably, achieving a most preferred solution. These are: (1) partial generation of the efficient set, a rubric we use to unify a wide spectrum of both interactive and analytic methods; (2) explicit utility maximization, a much-overlooked approach combining multiattribute decision theory and mathematical programming; and (3) interactive implicit utility maximization, the popular class of methods introduced by Geoffrion, Dyer, and Feinberg [24] and extended significantly by others.     

Testing Treatment-Covariate Interaction in a Nonparametric Analysis of Covariance Model

We consider a recently introduced nonparametric model for Analysis of Covariance and derive an asymptotic test for interaction between covariate and treatment. Furthermore, we suggest data depth techniques to obtain joint confidence regions for the covariate effects in this model.

The finite sample behavior of the asymptotic method is evaluated in simulations. Application of the procedures is illustrated using an epileptic seizures and chemotherapy data set.     

A robust ranking method extending ELECTRE III to hierarchy of interacting criteria,imprecise weights and stochastic analysis

A great majority of methods designed for Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) assume that all assessment criteria are considered at the same level, however, decision problems encountered in practice often impose a hierarchical structure of criteria. The hierarchy helps to decompose complex decision problems into smaller and manageable subtasks, and thus, it is very attractive for computational efficiency and explanatory purposes. To handle the hierarchy of criteria in MCDA, a methodology called Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Process (MCHP), has been recently proposed. MCHP permits to consider preference relations with respect to a subset of criteria at any level of the hierarchy. Here, we propose to apply MCHP to the ELECTRE III ranking method adapted to handle three types of interaction effects between criteria: mutual-weakening, mutual-strengthening and antagonistic effect. We also involve in MCHP an imprecise elicitation of criteria weights, generalizing a technique called the SRF method. In order to explore the plurality of rankings obtained by the ELECTRE III method for possible sets of criteria weights, we apply the Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) that permits to draw robust conclusions in terms of rankings and preference relations at each level of the hierarchy of criteria. The novelty of the whole methodology consists of a joint consideration of hierarchical assessments of alternatives performances on interacting criteria, imprecise criteria weights, and robust analysis of ranking recommendations resulting from ELECTRE III. An example regarding the multiple criteria ranking of some European universities will show how to apply the proposed methodology on a decision problem.     

浅析高职院校信息化建设问题及对策

十二五期间，国家要求大力加强信息化建设，作为后起之秀，高职院校借此发展东风，迅速兴起信息化建设热潮。但在信息化建设中认识不到位、重复建设、效率低下、资源浪费严重等问题层出不穷。本文结合高职院校信息化实际，从四个方面分析了目前高职院校信息化建设中存在的问题，并提出切实改进意见，以期促进高职院校信息化建设高效、扎实稳步推进。     

新疆民族传统体育发展趋势研究分析

目前有资料记载挖掘整理出新疆民族传统体育项目278个。民族传统体育在资料收集、整理、挖掘中，应将新疆民族传统体育项目和信息技术相结合，把有代表性项目编辑成网络游戏和游戏软件，做好新疆民族传统体育项目普及工作，加快文字收集和挖掘工作，使新疆民族传统体育进入良性可持续发展。