中国经济增长趋势研究

1978年以来,中国经济高速增长,国民经济综合实力迅速增加,中国一跃成为世界第二大经济体,但是次贷危机对世界及中国经济造成了巨大影响,经过强有力的刺激政策,中国经济出现了短暂的恢复性增长,之后呈现逐渐下降态势.2014年中国GDP增长速度为7.4%,与经济危机之前的中国经济的高速增长相比有较大差距.采用季节调整模型和Hodrick-Prescott滤波分析方法研究发现,中国的长期经济增长速度呈现下滑趋势,其根本因素是消费、投资、净出口的拉动力下降,直接因素是房地产行业下行.为了保持中国经济的长期平稳增长,应该适当鼓励人口增长,降低税收和鼓励科技创新.     

A Comparison of Arbitration Procedures for Risk‐Averse Disputants*

We propose an arbitration model framework that generalizes many previous quantitative models of final offer arbitration, conventional arbitration, and some proposed alternatives to them. Our model allows the two disputants to be risk averse and assumes that the issue(s) in dispute can be summarized by a single quantifiable value. We compare the performance of the different arbitration procedures by analyzing the gap between the disputants' equilibrium offers and the width of the contract zone that these offers imply. Our results suggest that final offer arbitration should give results superior to those of conventional arbitration.     

Using the End‐User Computing Satisfaction (EUCS) Instrument to Measure Satisfaction with a Web Site

The purpose of this study is to revise and revalidate the End‐User Computing Satisfaction (EUCS) instrument to measure satisfaction with a Web site from a usability perspective. This study is especially important given the increased significance of the Web and the uniqueness of the Web as a computing environment. A total of 176 students participated in a lab simulation that involved a usability evaluation of the Lands' End Web site ( http://www.landsend.com ). Students were asked to complete a set of tasks, record their answers, and then complete the EUCS instrument. Confirmatory factor analysis and invariance analyses were conducted to test the reliability, validity, and generalizability of the revised EUCS. The results show that the EUCS is a valid and robust instrument in the Web environment but that one of the subfactors, timeliness, will need further refinement in the future. Usability practitioners can use the EUCS to measure end‐user satisfaction with a Web site and use the feedback for improving Web‐site design. We describe a case study of an actual usability application that utilized the revised EUCS effectively to support the design of building supply Web sites involving two types of end users, homeowners and contractors. We also propose a typology that researchers can use as a starting point to judge when it is necessary to revalidate an instrument like the EUCS. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our study and present avenues for future research.     

Performance evaluation based on multiple attributes with nonparametric frontiers

Performance rating and comparison of a group of entities is frequently based on the values of several attributes. Such evaluations are often complicated by the absence of a natural or obvious way to weight the importance of the individual dimensions of the performance. This paper proposes a framework based on nonparametric frontiers to rate and classify entities described by multiple performance attributes into ‘performers’ and ‘underperformers’. The method is equivalent to Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with entities defined only by outputs. In the spirit of DEA, the weights for each attribute are selected to maximize each entity’s performance score. This approach, however, results in a new linear program that is more direct and intuitive than traditional DEA formulations. The model can be easily understood and interpreted by practitioners since it conforms better to the practice of evaluating and comparing performance using standard specifications. We illustrate the model’s use with two examples. The first evaluates the performance of employees. The second is an application in manufacturing where multiple quality attributes are used to assess and compare performance of different manufacturing processes.     

Search for optimal designs in a three stagenested random model

In this paper we define a class of unbalanced designs, denoted by C_k,s,t, for estimating the components of variance in a k-stage nested random effects linear model. This class contains many of the designs proposed in the literature for nested components of variance models. We focus on the three-state model and discuss the determination of locally optimal designs within this class using a systematic computer search. For large sample sizes we show that approximate optimal designs may be obtained using a limit argument combined with numerical optimization. A comparison of our designs with previously published designs suggests that, in many cases, our designs result in substantial gains in efficiency.     

数字经济、空间效应与全要素生产率

当前,数字经济蓬勃发展,已成为经济增长的新动能。本文从数字产业化与产业数字化 两个维度,采用主成分分析法构建了数字经济发展水平的指标体系,并利用2004-2017年我国省际面板 数据,在克服内生性问题的基础上,实证分析了数字经济发展对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,数字 经济发展显著促进了全要素生产率的提升。但较之高生产率地区和东部地区,数字经济发展对低生产率地区和中西部地区全要素生产率的提升作用更大。就机制而言,人力资本投资与产业结构升级是数 字经济影响全要素生产率的两个渠道。进一步的空间计量分析表明,数字经济发展不仅会提升本地区 的全要素生产率,还存在显著的空间溢出效应,有助于提升邻近地区的全要素生产率。本文的研究为评估数字经济发展的影响效果提供了数据支撑和分析视角,也为探寻全要素生产率的提升路径提供了政策参考。     

管制市场化的法经济学分析

市场化管制的经济基础和法律形式是自然垄断及其法律管制形式、天然稀缺资源及其法律管制形式、信息市场供求矛盾及其法律管制。以我国转型期管制为对象,对管制市场化的法经济学分析表明,管制是市场配置资源的一种制度设计,管制是市场经济发展的必然产物。基于正确的管制理念,管制度的量化标准就是市场运行情况和资源的配置和分配效率。     

政治心理学中的人格研究与精神分析法

政治心理学起源于对政治现象中政治人的精神与生理的关注,故此,对于政治人格的精神病理学研究一直是这门学科的主题。然而,人格一词对于政治学家和心理学家而言范围大小不同,心理学家将人格作为解释个体在面临不同刺激时的行为反应模式,政治学家更倾向于将人格看作一种心理防卫机制,进而探讨这种机制对于政治行为产生的影响。从概念界定到研究方法等方面,精神分析既促进了人格研究的深化和成型,又给政治—人格分析法带来了挑战。     

Reconfiguring the Supply Network Using Current Performance Data

Reconfiguration of the supply chain network from time to time is essential for businesses to retain their competitive edge. This paper presents a methodology for reconfiguration of an existing supply chain network. The methodology is characterized by two decision levels. In the first level, the current network performance is evaluated and efficient practices are identified. In the next level, a model that incorporates efficient practices is developed to reconfigure the network. This integrated methodology allows for decision maker (DM) input throughout the process. The methodology has been implemented and tested in the reconfiguration of an outbound petroleum supply chain network for CountryMark Cooperative, Inc. In this case study, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to analyze current operations and an integer programming (IP) model that incorporates efficiency metrics is developed for selection of distribution facilities and allocation of resources to the facilities. Use of this methodology can lead to improved operations and reduced operating expenses.