大数据背景下非概率抽样的统计推断问题

利用大数据进行抽样,很多情况下抽样框的构造比较困难,使得抽取的样本属于非概率样本,难以将传统的抽样推断理论应用到非概率样本中,如何解决非概率抽样的统计推断问题,是大数据背景下抽样调查面临的严重挑战。本文提出了解决非概率抽样统计推断问题的基本思路：一是抽样方法,可以考虑基于样本匹配的样本选择、链接跟踪抽样方法等,使得到的非概率样本近似于概率样本,从而可采用概率样本的统计推断理论;二是权数的构造与调整,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和倾向得分等方法得到类似于概率样本的基础权数;三是估计,可以考虑基于伪设计、模型和贝叶斯的混合概率估计。最后,以基于样本匹配的样本选择为例探讨了具体解决方法。     

基于流数据挖掘的网络流量异常检测及分析研究

网络流量异常检测及分析是网络及安全管理领域的重要研究内容.本文探讨了网络流量异常的种类、网络流量异常检测的方法,分析了基于传统检测方法在网络流量异常检测应用中存在的问题.并重点对基于流数据模型的网络流量异常检测进行了研究,综述了已有流数据挖掘研究方法在网络流量异常检测中的研究进展.最后,本文对现有研究工作存在的问题及未来的研究方向进行了探讨.     

政治文化与审美文化的复杂编织——《祝福》的接受史研究

接受史研究能为文学经典的当代价值确证提供参照。梳理《祝福》的文学研究史与教学解读史可以发现：该小说在政治与审美两种力量的博弈中经历着曲折的接受历程;在语文学科视阈下显示出由“工具”向文学本位转变的趋势。文学研究与教学解读不应偏离与割裂,《祝福》的价值传播需获得学科建设的合力。     

Chapter 5

No abstract available for this article.     

Using photography to understand change and continuity in the history of residential care for older people

The Last Refuge by Peter Townsend is a seminal study of residential care for older people. The fieldwork was carried out in the late 1950s and the data are now deposited in the National Social Policy and Social Change Archive at the University of Essex. We have undertaken research, funded by the ESRC, which has revisited Townsend's work and some of the homes he studied in order to conduct an overtime comparison. In this paper we focus on Townsend's use of photography and our subsequent use of photography in our revisiting study. We argue that although Townsend did not analyse his photographs, they were significant data for use in his arguments critiquing residential care. They were, however, the product of a different socio‐historical context to our own and as such posed considerable practical and ethical challenges for us when attempting to use this aspect of his methodology for an overtime comparison. We argue that despite the resulting constraints, photography was an important part of our methodology, enabling comparisons and illuminating historical patterns in residential care for older people.     

The Exclusiveness of the Political Field: Networks and political mobilization

This paper applies social network analysis to three case study social movement organizations based in the north of England: a local Labour Party branch, an environmental group, and a conservation group. Using a postal survey of members, we chart the extent of ties between members of these three groups, indicating how each group has its own internal social dynamics and characteristics that are related to the nature of the movement organizations themselves. We explore how the network structures interrelate with the socio-demographic structure of the membership of the three organizations, and we show there are important differences in the way that core members of the three organizations are recruited compared to those who are either peripheral or isolated. Our paper is the first to analyse the networks of whole populations of case study organizations in the UK, and can therefore be read as developing the potential of social network analysis for case study research and for understanding social movements. Analytically we argue it is important to distinguish two different types of ways that networks are important. They can be seen as offering resources for mobilization, or they can be seen as providing a means of integrating particular types of individuals into organizations. It is this latter sense that offers a more fundamental role for network analysis, and we argue that it offers an important way of developing insights from resource mobilization theory by relating them to Bourdieu's provocative arguments regarding the exclusiveness of the political field.     

基于学习需求分析的高职商务英语专业课程设置探究*

ESP(专门用途英语)是指与某种特定的职业、学科或目的相关的英语课程,建立在需求分析理论之上。商务英语是 ESP 的一个分支,因此,商务英语课程体系设置也应基于对学习者的需求分析。文章在学习需求分析基础上,就目前高职院校商务英语专业课程设置的问题进行探讨,进而探究相应的对策。     

Unemployment Protection and Family Policy at the Turn of the 21st Century: A Dynamic Approach to Welfare Regime Theory

This article contributes to the welfare state regime literature from a substantive and methodological perspective. At a very abstract level we confirm the relevance of the welfare state regime theory and stability for the period from 1971 to the end of the 1990s. However, by analyzing family policy and unemployment protection, we observe a dual transformation of the welfare state, consisting of a trend towards a ‘socialization’ of family policies and a retrenchment in unemployment insurance benefits. Our Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) of the two policy domains captures the multi‐dimensionality of the decommodification and defamilialization concepts and visualizes welfare state developments over time in a Cartesian space. This dynamic analysis provides us with a nuanced understanding of welfare state regime stability and change.     

DEA models for extended two-stage network structures

Liang et al. (2008) [1] developed DEA models based upon game approach to decompose efficiency for two-stage network structures where all outputs of the first stage are the only inputs to the second stage. This paper extends Liang et al. (2008) [1] by assuming that the inputs to the second stage include both the outputs from the first stage and additional inputs to the second stage. Two models are proposed to evaluate the performance of this type general two-stage network structures. One is a non-linear centralized model whose global optimal solutions can be estimated using a heuristic search procedure. The other is a non-cooperative model, in which one of the stages is regarded as the leader and the other is the follower. The newly developed models are applied to a case of regional R&D of China.