20世纪后半期中国古代经济史资料的整理与出版

中国经济史学科形成于20世纪上半期,对经济史资料的搜求和整理工作也很快开始进行,但大规模的资料整理汇编工作则是在中华人民共和国成立以后.本文从三个方面对20世纪后半期中国古代经济史资料的整理与汇编情况作了综合回顾与考察.     

财政分权背景下的地方政府预算外收入扩张——基于中国省级面板数据的实证研究

本文对财政分权背景下我国地方政府预算外收入扩张的原因进行了理论分析,研究发现:地方政府预算外收入与辖区经济发展水平存在显著的负相关关系;与行政事业单位人员规模存在显著的正相关关系;与预算内财政支出存在显著的负相关关系;同时,在预算内财政支出既定时,预算外收入与转移支付规模存在显著的负相关关系。说明了分权改革后地方政府扩张预算外收入一方面在于弥补其财政支出的缺口;另一方面,由于预算外资金的收和支没有完全脱钩,行政事业单位改革的不彻底性,地方政府追求可自由裁量财政资源最大化的偏好等原因,进一步加剧了预算外收入的扩张。     

意识流小说《到灯塔去》依旧闪亮文坛的“奥秘”

本文试图通过分析作家在<到灯塔去>中意识流创作手法的及小说的诗化手法与绘画手法的成功运用,从而揭示使得这部小说在意识流小说衰落以后,仍然能在文坛上绽放光芒的原因.     

《到灯塔去》中的虚实之间——从意识流的角度赏析莉丽·布里斯库

《到灯塔去》是英国著名意识流女作家弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫的意识流代表作。她主要通过小说的重要角色莉丽·布里斯库自己的意识流动来塑造莉丽的形象。伍尔夫是从客观时间与主观时间交织、现实与回忆相糅来传达她的创作旨趣的。     

Testing Treatment-Covariate Interaction in a Nonparametric Analysis of Covariance Model

We consider a recently introduced nonparametric model for Analysis of Covariance and derive an asymptotic test for interaction between covariate and treatment. Furthermore, we suggest data depth techniques to obtain joint confidence regions for the covariate effects in this model.

The finite sample behavior of the asymptotic method is evaluated in simulations. Application of the procedures is illustrated using an epileptic seizures and chemotherapy data set.     

A Critical Look at Some Analyses of Major League Baseball Salaries

At a data analysis exposition sponsored by the Section on Statistical Graphics of the ASA in 1988, 15 groups of statisticians analyzed the same data about salaries of major league baseball players. By examining what they did, what worked, and what failed, we can begin to learn about the relative strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to analyzing data. The data are rich in difficulties. They require reexpression, contain errors and outliers, and exhibit nonlinear relationships. They thus pose a realistic challenge to the variety of data analysis techniques used. The analysis groups chose a wide range of model-fitting methods, including regression, principal components, factor analysis, time series, and CART. We thus have an effective framework for comparing these approaches so that we can learn more about them. Our examination shows that approaches commonly identified with Exploratory Data Analysis are substantially more effective at revealing the underlying patterns in the data and at building parsimonious, understandable models that fit the data well. We also find that common data displays, when applied carefully, are often sufficient for even complex analyses such as this.     

A study of DEA models without explicit inputs

In performance evaluations, data without explicit inputs (such as index data, pure output data) are widely used. To directly use such data, this paper presents a study on building DEA models without explicit inputs, so-called DEA-WEI models, which are applicable to the evaluation applications where inputs are not directly considered. We provide an axiom foundation of these kinds of models, and further discuss how to incorporate value judgments of decision makers into these DEA-WEI models. Several such models are derived. Finally, applications of the DEA-WEI models are presented.     

Incorporating quality into data envelopment analysis of nursing home performance: A case study

When using data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a benchmarking technique for nursing homes, it is essential to include measures of the quality of care. We survey applications where quality has been incorporated into DEA models and consider the concerns that arise when the results show that quality measures have been effectively ignored. Three modeling techniques are identified that address these concerns. Each of these techniques requires some input from management as to the proper emphasis to be placed on the quality aspect of performance. We report the results of a case study in which we apply these techniques to a DEA model of nursing home performance. We examine in depth not only the resulting efficiency scores, but also the benchmark sets and the weights given to the input and output measures. We find that two of the techniques are effective in insuring that DEA results discriminate between high and low quality performance.     

A pattern-mixture odds ratio model for incomplete categorical data

Most models for incomplete data are formulated within the selection model framework. Pattern-mixture models are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, both from an interpretational as well as from a computational point of view (Little 1993, Hogan and Laird 1997, Ekholm and Skinner 1998). Whereas most applications are either for continuous normally distributed data or for simplified categorical settings such as contingency tables, we show how a multivariate odds ratio model (Molenberghs and Lesaffre 1994, 1998) can be used to fit pattern-mixture models to repeated binary outcomes with continuous covariates. Apart from point estimation, useful methods for interval estimation are presented and data from a clinical study are analyzed to illustrate the methods.     

果业财政补贴与激励机制设计

果业发展的关键在于技术和品种的更新,而引入新技术需要投入较多资金,更新品种也要几年后才有收益,这制约了广大果农对果业升级换代的积极性,影响了果业的发展。因此,政府应对果业提供产出补贴与品种更新补贴,以此来激励果农采用新技术及新优果树品种,提高果业的竞争力。政府的具体补贴数额可通过补贴激励机制模型计算得出。