郝经与方回和陶《饮酒》诗之比较

郝经和方回作为元代追和陶渊明《饮酒》诗人的代表，其诗歌都是借和陶诗的形式浇自己之块垒。但由于各自人生追求以及生活境遇的不同，在对诗酒生活的描写、对功名节操的态度以及对陶渊明精神的取舍等方面都存在较大的差异，反映了陶渊明《饮酒》诗对元代诗人多层面的广泛影响。     

Estimation in an empirical bayes model for longitudinal and cross‐sectionally clustered binary data

Some studies generate data that can be grouped into clusters in more than one way. Consider for instance a smoking prevention study in which responses on smoking status are collected over several years in a cohort of students from a number of different schools. This yields longitudinal data, also cross‐sectionaliy clustered in schools. The authors present a model for analyzing binary data of this type, combining generalized estimating equations and estimation of random effects to address the longitudinal and cross‐sectional dependence, respectively. The estimation procedure for this model is discussed, as are the results of a simulation study used to investigate the properties of its estimates. An illustration using data from a smoking prevention trial is given.     

Morality rules: Understanding the role of prior reputation in consequences of scansis

A favorable reputation casts positive influences over organizations’ short- and long-term development, which can be especially important when organizations grapple with unpredictable challenges such as organizational crises. Yet, keeping a good track record might also backfire to cause more reputational damages, which is often observed when organizations deal with value-oriented moral crises. Against this backdrop, drawing from the literature on crisis communication and moral psychology, we situated our study in the scansis context, a particular type of morality-focused negative situation featuring characteristics of both crisis and scandal, and explored effects of prior reputation on people’s responses to an organizational scansis. Through an online experiment (N = 293), we found severe backlash towards the scansis-stricken organization in both the control condition (i.e., no indication of reputation) and the good reputation condition, whereas such prominent difference was not observed in the bad reputation condition. The findings thus implicated the need to take the unique role of morality in scansis into account in both pertinent research and practice.     

Contrast of Compliments Between Chinese and English（英文）

Compliments and their responses are special speech actions which are broadly used in interpersonal communications.And how to give compliments and respond to them constitute a significant part of the communicative competence of every member in a speech community.Complimenting is a particularly suitable speech action to investigate in comparative studies,for it acts as a window through which we can view what is valued by a particular culture.This essay mainly analyzes and researches the differences between Chinese and English compliments,attempting to reveal the contrast between Chinese and English compliments in the aspects of expression,topics and lexical formulas.The comparative study may contribute to understand more about Chinese and English compliment cultures,and furthermore,promote the study of pragmatics and the development of intercultural communication effectively.     

Multivariate forests with missing mixed outcomes

In this article, we propose a multivariate random forest method for multiple responses of mixed types with missing responses. Imputation is performed for each bootstrap sample used to build the individual trees that form the forest. The individual trees are built using a weighted splitting rule allowing downweighting of imputed observations. A simulation study shows the benefits of this approach over complete case analysis when missing responses are missing completely at random and missing at random (MAR). In particular, the gain in prediction accuracy of the proposed method is larger in the MAR case and also increases as the proportion of missing increases.     

A latent variable model for analyzing mixed longitudinal (k,l)-inflated count and ordinal responses

A random effects model for analyzing mixed longitudinal count and ordinal data is presented where the count response is inflated in two points (k and l) and an (k,l)-Inflated Power series distribution is used as its distribution. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model. For data with non-ignorable missing values models with probit model for missing mechanism are used.The dependence between longitudinal sequences of responses and inflation parameters are investigated using a random effects approach. Also, to investigate the correlation between mixed ordinal and count responses of each individuals at each time, a shared random effect is used. In order to assess the performance of the model, a simulation study is performed for a case that the count response has (k,l)-Inflated Binomial distribution. Performance comparisons of count-ordinal random effect model, Zero-Inflated ordinal random effects model and (k,l)-Inflated ordinal random effects model are also given. The model is applied to a real social data set from the first two waves of the national longitudinal study of adolescent to adult health (Add Health study). In this data set, the joint responses are the number of days in a month that each individual smoked as the count response and the general health condition of each individual as the ordinal response. For the count response there is incidence of excess values of 0 and 30.     

Unruly bodies at conference

Academic conferences embody a set of prescribed regulative practices. This article considers some of the tensions that arise when these normative expectations are disrupted by unruly bodies. As scholars of disability studies we lament the lack of understanding within an ableist society that is resistant to change. In this article, however, I invite us to explore closer to home to consider how unruly bodies might enable reflection on how disability is created even within our own ‘expert’ environments. It is argued here that new ways of conceptualising and accommodating behaviour at conference are required if these are to exemplify the inclusive and welcoming spaces desired by us all.     

The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19?years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.     

论合同法上的情事变更原则

法律上对情事变更原则的适用规定了严格的条件,适用情事变更原则的法律效力主要体现变更合同、解除合同两个方面,而且情事变更与不可抗力、商业风险存在着明显的差别。社会主义市场经济的发展及与国际市场的接轨,决定了情事变更原则应当成为我国合同法上最重要的法律原则之一,它有利于进一步完善我国现行合同法律制度。