Stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard models

The accelerated hazard model in survival analysis assumes that the covariate effect acts the time scale of the baseline hazard rate. In this paper, we study the stochastic properties of the mixed accelerated hazard model since the covariate is considered basically unobservable. We build dependence structure between the population variable and the covariate, and also present some preservation properties. Using some well-known stochastic orders, we compare two mixed accelerated hazards models arising out of different choices of distributions for unobservable covariates or different baseline hazard rate functions.     

Introductory Statistics Textbooks and the GAISE Recommendations

The six recommendations made by the Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) committee were first communicated in 2005 and more formally in 2010. In this article, 25 introductory statistics textbooks are examined to assess how well these textbooks have incorporated the three GAISE recommendations most relevant to implementation in textbooks (statistical literacy and thinking; use of real data; stress concepts over procedures). The implementation of another recommendation (using technology) is described but not assessed. In general, most textbooks appear to be adopting the GAISE recommendations reasonably well in both exposition and exercises. The textbooks are particularly adept at using real data, using real data well, and promoting statistical literacy. Textbooks are less adept—but still rated reasonably well, in general—at explaining concepts over procedures and promoting statistical thinking. In contrast, few textbooks have easy-usable glossaries of statistical terms to assist with understanding of statistical language and literacy development. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

对普通本科院校发展高职教育的思考

本科院校发展高职教育应从更新教育观念，狠抓基本建设和深化教育教学改革等方面进行。     

Risk aggregation with dependence and overdispersion based on the compound Poisson INAR(1) process

Abstract

This paper considers an extension of the classical discrete time risk model for which the claim numbers are assumed to be temporal dependence and overdispersion. The risk model proposed is based on the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process with discrete compound Poisson distributed innovations. The explicit expression for the moment generating function of the discounted aggregate claim amount is derived. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the impacts of dependence and overdispersion on related quantities such as the stop-loss premium, the value at risk and the tail value at risk.     

摄影中的“新纪实”与“超现实”话语——以塞巴斯提奥·萨尔加多和杰瑞·尤斯曼为例

摄影是“自然之笔”与现实相对应。塞巴斯提奥·萨尔加多用镜头记录了真实的社会生活,其作品所表现的个体与群像在纪实品格外凸显出强烈的视觉美感和深刻性,形成了“新纪实摄影”风格;而杰瑞·尤斯曼的“超现实摄影”与前者相异,他用纯熟的后期暗房合成技术,通过底片叠加创造出现实中不存在的幻景,在具体与抽象之间拓展了作品的精神内涵和时空维度。文章以两位摄影大师为例,从三个维度来比较“新纪实摄影”与“超现实主义摄影”：“标记符”与“象似符”;“视觉寓言”;审美欲求。     

A class of weighted dependence measures for bivariate failure time data

This paper considers a class of summary measures of the dependence between a pair of failure time variables over a finite follow-up region. The class consists of measures that are weighted averages of local dependence measures, and includes the cross-ratio-measure and finite region version of Kendall's τ; recently proposed by the authors. Two new special cases are identified that can avoid the need to estimate the bivariate survivor function and that admit explicit variance estimators. Nonparametric estimators of such dependence measures are proposed and are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal with variances that can be consistently estimated. Properties of selected estimators are evaluated in a simulation study, and the method is illustrated through an analysis of Australian Twin Study data.     

陈柱散文研究的理论体系构建及文学史价值

民国时期的国学大家陈柱,一生著述甚丰。他的散文研究述及中国散文史、散文分类、散文创作论等诸多方面,形成了自己独具特色的散文理论体系。出于矫治时弊的意图,陈柱以“学术”内质和“文学”外式的体用关系构建了散文理论的基石;以此为基础,他尝试以“文言”和“质言”划分散文体类,探索归纳出中国散文的内部类型;与他的散文理论相呼应,陈柱将六经视为后世文学的源头,提出“体尊质衰”的散文史观。他将后世散文之弊归因于“尊体”的结果,主张以先秦文学为散文范本。陈柱以融汇经史子集的广阔视野来审视中国散文的历史发展规律,推动了后来的中国散文研究和散文史书写。     

创新理念 推进自治制度运行和自治地方治理现代化

Deepening reform, promoting the rule of law, and implementing the “Five Develop￣ment ” concepts have had a deep influence on the modernization of governance in ethnic autonomous regions. Based on a review of 30 years of success￣ful experiences in implementing ethnic regional au￣tonomous law, and focusing on the concepts of“innovation, coordination, green development, openness and sharing”, we need to conduct in -depth research on the ways to:promote governance by law, realize the modernization of governance;and promote the efficient implementation of ethnic autonomous systems in the ethnic autonomous re￣gion.
The 155 ethnic autonomous areas of China cover 64% of the total area of the country. There￣fore, the governance of the country cannot be a￣chieved without modernizing the governance in the ethnic autonomous regions. Modernizing the gov￣ernance in ethnic autonomous regions is a necessa￣ry element for modernizing the governance of the nation. The modernization of the ethnic autono￣mous regions actually means the legalization of the governance in ethnic autonomous areas, which is a main part of the legalization of the ethnic affairs.
The comprehensive, deepening of reform, and promoting governance by law have been strongly promoted. We should start from reality, respect differences, and take the development concepts of“innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing” into consideration so as to promote the ef￣ficient implementation of ethnic regional autono￣mous systems through various methods. We should update our concepts, weaken specificity, solidify locality, intensify new thinking, innovate the run￣ning of ethnic autonomous systems, and promote the modernization of governance in ethnic autono￣mous regions. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the theories and practices used since the imple￣mentation of ethnic regional autonomous regula￣tions, and under the premise of intensifying “the legalization of ethnic affairs”, we should deepen the comprehensive reform of the ethnic autonomous regions, comprehensively promote the governance by law, and realize the goal of building a moder￣ately prosperous society as scheduled through im￣proving and innovating the running of ethnic re￣gional autonomous systems.
“Ethnic areas are districts with rich resources and water sources; they are ecological screen zones, cultural characteristic zones, border areas, and poor areas.” At the same time, due to histori￣cal, social and natural factors,“the natural condi￣tions of most ethnic areas are not good; their be￣ginning phase of development is low; they have many historical debts; they are located far away from the central markets and urban areas;their ur￣ban-rural gap is very obvious”, and “their gap with the eastern areas ( of China) is growing larger and larger”. The reform and the promotion of gov￣ernance by law in ethnic autonomous areas should put more emphasis on locality, ethnicity and “au￣tonomy”. Of course, we must avoid of “artificial￣ly” intensifying ethnic consciousness, and creating ethnic “differences”. Meanwhile, we should “im￣prove the capability for legal management of ethnic affairs”, “intensify the construction of laws and regulations related to ethnic work”, “legally han￣dle those issues involving ethnic factors”, “insist on resolving issues involving ethnic factors by the law, and avoid of regarding civil and criminal problems related to ethnic people as ethnic prob￣lems, or regarding common disputes in ethnic are￣as as ethnic problems. ”
We should affirm that China’s ethnic relations are harmonious, and that their economics are de￣veloping rapidly. Since the implementation of the policy of “reform and opening -up”, especially since 2005 , the economics in ethnic autonomous regions have developed dramatically; the people’s living conditions have continuously improved;bas￣ic infrastructure has significantly speeded up; and ecological protection has solidly improved. Howev￣er, the problems still prevail. For example, the poverty in ethnic areas is still serious—there are more than 25 million poor in ethnic rural areas. Therefore, the task of poverty alleviation is still very tough. In addition, the gap between urban and rural areas and between different regions is very large in ethnic autonomous regions. Finally, the rate of urbanization is very low.
In sum, during the process of modernizing so￣cial governance in ethnic autonomous regions, we must pay full attention to the five“stage character￣istics” of ethnic work in China which are the:( i) co - existence of opportunities and challenges brought by the “reform and opening -up” policy and the socialist market economy;( ii) co-exist￣ence of the state’s constant support to the ethnic ar￣eas and its low level of development; ( iii ) co -existence of the state’s constant support to the eth￣nic areas and the weak level of basic public service capability in ethnic areas; ( iv ) co -existence of the constant exchange and fusion between various ethnic groups and the disputes involving ethnic fac￣tors;and ( v) co-existence of the great achieve￣ments in anti-national splittism, religious extrem￣ity, and violent terrorism, as well as the active ter￣rorism activities in some areas. Only when we rec￣ognize this situation, can we understand the speci￣ficity of doing ethnic work in China. The innova￣tion of governance of ethnic autonomous areas and the promotion of governance by law in the whole country must start from this actual situation.
At present, we still need to clarify the conno￣tations of autonomous rights. Based on a clear clar￣ification of the basic meaning of ethnic regional au￣tonomous rights, we should deepen reform, active￣ly transform the governance of the ethnic autono￣mous regions, further deepen relevant theoretical studies, and positively promote the ethnic regional autonomous system. The main purpose of the eth￣nic regional autonomous areas is to promote the de￣velopment of the various affairs of ethnic minorities and ethnic regional autonomous areas. The purpose for improving the ethnic regional autonomous sys￣tem is to ensure the development of ethnic minori￣ties and ethnic regional autonomous regions. Im￣proving the ethnic regional autonomous system should transform from one of preferential treatment to one of nuanced development.
Looking back to the past, the legal construc￣tion of ethnic regional autonomy has made great a￣chievements. However, the preferential policies of the state and relevant institutes are still the real factors promoting the development of the various af￣fairs of the ethnic minorities and ethnic autonomous areas. As described in this article, there are multi￣ple factors which influence the efficiency and per￣formance of the ethnic regional autonomy. The eth￣nic autonomous regions are restricted by natural conditions and economic development, therefore, they have to depend on assistance from the state and the relevant institutes—this is the objective re￣ality. However, the improvement of the ethnic re￣gional autonomous system must change the status of the past, and enable the ethnic regional autono￣mous system play out its actual role so that the va￣rious affairs of ethnic minorities and ethnic autono￣mous regions can step onto a road of nuanced de￣velopment.
The future development of the ethnic regional autonomous system depends on the consensus of theoretical and practical circles, i. e. a long-term mechanism whose purpose is to enable the system itself play its actual role should be established. Only by such a mechanism, can these puzzling problems be solved and gradually improved. Tak￣ing the breakthrough of the actual effect of the sys￣tem as the starting point of the ethnic regional autonomy’s deepening of the reform, one should take the following aspects into consideration:1 ) re-examine existing laws and regulations, and im￣prove them on the basis of institutional norms, en￣hance normalization, uniformity and manipulability of the ethnic regional autonomous regulations; 2 ) sort out the relationship between the institutions in ethnic autonomous areas and the upper levels of the state institutes, as well as the relationship be￣tween the institutions on the same level;on the va￣rious institutional levels, enhance clear cognition on the position, role and organizing principles of the ethnic regional autonomous system, and avoid taking the ethnic regional autonomous system as the affairs of the ethnic autonomous areas;3 ) im￣prove the supervisory mechanisms for running the ethnic regional autonomous system; and 4 ) im￣prove the mechanisms for handling disputes on the running of the ethnic regional autonomous system.
We must work closely, share the achieve￣ments, and promote the operation of the ethnic re￣gional autonomous system. For this purpose, we should:1 ) standardize the management of the eth￣nic regional autonomous system, and weaken the“specificity”;2 ) promote the governance capabili￣ty of the ethnic regional autonomous areas, and so￣lidify the concept of“locality”;3 ) enhance auton￣omous awareness and capability, intensify “new thinking”, motivate initiatives from the autonomous areas, and improve the autonomous system from the bottom-up, and rationally allocate the power and rights of the high-level organs and the auton￣omous organs in the ethnic autonomous areas.     

“中国特色社会主义理论体系”的理论意义与科学认识

“中国特色社会主义理论体系”这个概念的科学意义,在于它具有指导思想表述的总括性、新思想新观念的建设性和民族文化的传承性;对于“中国特色社会主义理论体系”的理解,可以有发展战略、发展道路、哲学基础和现代化路径的不同视域,这些不同视域表现了它开放的理论建构能力。     

Cosmopolitanism and the relevance of ‘zombie concepts’: the case of anomic suicide amongst Alevi Kurd youth

Against Beck's claims that conventional sociological concepts and categories are zombie categories, this paper argues that Durkheim's theoretical framework in which suicide is a symptom of an anomic state of society can help us understand the diversity of trajectories that transnational migrants follow and that shape their suicide rates within a cosmopolitan society. Drawing on ethnographic data collected on eight suicides and three attempted suicide cases of second‐generation male Alevi Kurdish migrants living in London, this article explains the impact of segmented assimilation/adaptation trajectories on the incidence of suicide and how their membership of a ‘new rainbow underclass’, as a manifestation of cosmopolitan society, is itself an anomic social position with a lack of integration and regulation.