Mind-Reading and Metacognition: Narcissism, not Actual Competence, Predicts Self-Estimated Ability

In this paper, we examine the relationship between people's actual interpersonal sensitivity (such as their ability to identify deception and to infer intentions and emotions) and their perceptions of their own sensitivity. Like prior scholars, we find the connection is weak or non-existent and that most people overestimate their social judgment and mind-reading skills. Unlike previous work, however, we show new evidence about who misunderstands their sensitivity and why. We find that those who perform the worst in social judgment and mind-reading radically overestimate their relative competence. We also find origins of these self-estimates in general narcissistic tendencies toward self-aggrandizement. We discuss evidence from two studies, one involving the Interpersonal Perception Task (the IPT-15) and another focusing on inferences about partners after a face-to-face negotiation exercise. In both cases, actual performance did not predict self-estimated performance but narcissism did.     

一致性分数阶优化灰色模型及其应用

传统的分数阶灰色预测模型在时间序列预测中具有较好的适应性和预测的有效性,但其累加和差分计算式比较复杂。一致性分数阶累加相对于一般的分数阶累加,形式更简单,更便于计算和理论推导。为了提高模型的适应性和预测能力,文章在CFGM(1,1)白化方程中引入一个新的可变系数,扩大了原有白化方程的适用范围,并在此基础上构建了一致性分数阶优化灰色模型,即CFOGM(1,1)模型。最优一致性分数阶阶数和可变系数通过PSO算法最小化平均相对误差获得。将构建的模型运用到两个实例中并与其他经典的灰色预测模型进行对比,结果表明所提出的模型具有较高的拟合和预测精度。     

On quantile residuals in beta regression

Beta regression is often used to model the relationship between a dependent variable that assumes values on the open interval (0, 1) and a set of predictor variables. An important challenge in beta regression is to find residuals whose distribution is well approximated by the standard normal distribution. Two previous works compared residuals in beta regression, but the authors did not include the quantile residual. Using Monte Carlo simulation techniques, this article studies the behavior of certain residuals in beta regression in several scenarios. Overall, the results suggest that the distribution of the quantile residual is better approximated by the standard normal distribution than that of the other residuals in most scenarios. Three applications illustrate the effectiveness of the quantile residual.     

The Good,the Bad and the Unhappy: The Cultural Meanings of Newspaper Reporting on Jackpot Winners

Accounts of jackpot winners and big gambling wins are common in Swedish newspapers. Analysis of over 2000 such newspaper articles reveals that their content is structured according to specific themes and cultural topics. Four such topics are identified: wealth as a test of morals and character, the social impact of wealth, the just and good world, and luck and the occult. Culturally structured narratives like these—which elaborate on mythological and moralistic schemes of good and evil, rewards and punishments, and which concern questions of human nature and social values—have a long history in folk tradition and in Christian moral teachings. Jackpot wins provide a discursive realm for moral and existential questions that, to some extent, fills a void left by the decline of traditional folklore and formal religion. Apparently, this discourse stimulates interest in games and constitutes one of the cultural roots of contemporary gambling.     

Point Estimates of Test Sensitivity and Specificity from Sample Means and Variances

In a wide variety of biomedical and clinical research studies, sample statistics from diagnostic marker measurements are presented as a means of distinguishing between two populations, such as with and without disease. Intuitively, a larger difference between the mean values of a marker for the two populations, and a smaller spread of values within each population, should lead to more reliable classification rules based on this marker. We formalize this intuitive notion by deriving practical, new, closed-form expressions for the sensitivity and specificity of three different discriminant tests defined in terms of the sample means and standard deviations of diagnostic marker measurements. The three discriminant tests evaluated are based, respectively, on the Euclidean distance and the Mahalanobis distance between means, and a likelihood ratio analysis. Expressions for the effects of measurement error are also presented. Our final expressions assume that the diagnostic markers follow independent normal distributions for the two populations, although it will be clear that other known distributions may be similarly analyzed. We then discuss applications drawn from the medical literature, although the formalism is clearly not restricted to that application.     

《墨子》的思维语言艺术

《墨子》是战国时期墨家著作的总集。由墨子初创,墨子后学增益。现存53篇,9万余字,包含多种文体类别。本文从《墨子》全书,勾勒其思维语言艺术,认为其文字表达具有3个重要的特征,即是准确性和鲜明性,生动性和简练性,理趣性和功利性的统一。在中国古籍浩瀚的思维语言艺术历史长河中,具有独特的原创性价值和意义,值得仔细品味,借鉴传承。     

Between stability and higher-order asymptotics

We discuss the effects of model misspecifications on higher-order asymptotic approximations of the distribution of estimators and test statistics. In particular we show that small deviations from the model can wipe out the nominal improvements of the accuracy obtained at the model by second-order approximations of the distribution of classical statistics. Although there is no guarantee that the first-order robustness properties of robust estimators and tests will carry over to second-order in a neighbourhood of the model, the behaviour of robust procedures in terms of second-order accuracy is generally more stable and reliable than that of their classical counterparts. Finally, we discuss some related work on robust adjustments of the profile likelihood and outline the role of computer algebra in this type of research.     

A sequential conditional probability ratio test procedure for comparing diagnostic tests

In this paper, we derive sequential conditional probability ratio tests to compare diagnostic tests without distributional assumptions on test results. The test statistics in our method are nonparametric weighted areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. By using the new method, the decision of stopping the diagnostic trial early is unlikely to be reversed should the trials continue to the planned end. The conservatism reflected in this approach to have more conservative stopping boundaries during the course of the trial is especially appealing for diagnostic trials since the end point is not death. In addition, the maximum sample size of our method is not greater than a fixed sample test with similar power functions. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the properties of the proposed sequential procedure. We illustrate the method using data from a thoracic aorta imaging study.     

良导体导热系数测定实验的改进

根据良导体导热系数测定实验装置的特点，分析了该实验装置的缺陷并提出了改进意见。通过改进，不仅可以提高实验本身的精度，还可在此实验的基础上开发出新实验，增加了实验设备的用途。     

Effects of Feedback Delivery Requirements on Accuracy of Observations

ABSTRACT

Feedback is often used in Organizational Behavior Management to improve employee performance. Accurate feedback results in greater improvements in performance and accurate observations enable accurate feedback. However, employees may find providing feedback to peers aversive. The present study contrived a method to evaluate whether instructing individuals to deliver feedback following observations impacted the accuracy of those observations. Five college-aged participants were exposed to a counterbalanced ABAB design. In the observation-only condition (Condition A) participants conducted observations of confederate posture, scoring whether the confederate’s feet and back were “safe” or “at risk.” In the required-feedback condition (Condition B) participants observed and collected data identically to phase A, but were additionally instructed to deliver feedback regarding confederate postures following each session. The results show that all five participants demonstrated higher accuracy of observations in the observation-only condition. Factors potentially influencing lower accuracy when feedback was required are discussed.