Parental spanking and subsequent risk for child aggression in father-involved families of young children

This study examined separate and combined maternal and paternal use of spanking with children at age 3 and children's subsequent aggressive behavior at age 5. The sample was derived from a birth cohort study and included families (n = 923) in which both parents lived with the child at age 3. In this sample, 44% of 3-year-olds were spanked 2 times or more in the past month by either parent or both parents. In separate analyses, being spanked more than twice in the prior month at age 3, by either mother or father, was associated with increased child aggression at 5 years. In combined analyses, there was a dose–response association; the greatest risk for child aggression was reported when both parents spanked more than twice in the prior month (adjusted odds ratio: 2.01; [confidence interval: 1.03–3.94]). Violence prevention initiatives should target and engage mothers and fathers in anticipatory guidance efforts aimed at increasing the use of effective and non-aggressive child discipline techniques and reducing the use of spanking.     

Impact of Reseller's Forecasting Accuracy on Channel Member Performance

This article studies a three‐layer supply chain where a manufacturer sells a product through a reseller who then relies on its own salesperson to sell to the end market. The reseller has superior capability in demand forecasting relative to the manufacturer. We explore the main trade‐offs between the risk‐reduction effect and the information–asymmetry–aggravation effect of the improved forecasting accuracy. We show that under the optimal wholesale price contract, both the manufacturer and the reseller are always better off as the reseller's forecasting accuracy improves. Nevertheless, under the menu of two‐part tariffs, the manufacturer prefers the reseller to be either uninformed or perfectly informed about the market condition. We further find that the improved forecasting accuracy is beneficial for the reseller if its current forecasting system is either very poor or very good.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

《墨子》的思维语言艺术

《墨子》是战国时期墨家著作的总集。由墨子初创,墨子后学增益。现存53篇,9万余字,包含多种文体类别。本文从《墨子》全书,勾勒其思维语言艺术,认为其文字表达具有3个重要的特征,即是准确性和鲜明性,生动性和简练性,理趣性和功利性的统一。在中国古籍浩瀚的思维语言艺术历史长河中,具有独特的原创性价值和意义,值得仔细品味,借鉴传承。     

Modelling the tradeoff between postponement capacity and forecast accuracy

The ability to offer rapid delivery of a wide variety of customised products requires companies to maintain high levels of product inventories to quickly respond to customer demands. One alternative for reducing final product inventories while providing the required customer service level is delayed product differentiation, known as postponement. This strategy, however, can result in significant costs of increasing capacity at the postponement stage. Another alternative is to improve forecast accuracy, resulting in costs associated with more sophisticated forecasting methodologies. In this study we model the costs associated with each alternative and the resulting reductions in inventory levels, while maintaining a constant service level. We illustrate the interaction between these variables using a numerical example motivated by our work with a local manufacturer of non-durable household goods. Our findings show that large cost differences can exist between the two strategies, and that these costs play a significant role in determining the best strategy. Also, the value of the product (through holding cost) sets a limit on the benefit that can be realised by either strategy. These results have important managerial implications that should be considered when making the postponement decision.     

Between stability and higher-order asymptotics

We discuss the effects of model misspecifications on higher-order asymptotic approximations of the distribution of estimators and test statistics. In particular we show that small deviations from the model can wipe out the nominal improvements of the accuracy obtained at the model by second-order approximations of the distribution of classical statistics. Although there is no guarantee that the first-order robustness properties of robust estimators and tests will carry over to second-order in a neighbourhood of the model, the behaviour of robust procedures in terms of second-order accuracy is generally more stable and reliable than that of their classical counterparts. Finally, we discuss some related work on robust adjustments of the profile likelihood and outline the role of computer algebra in this type of research.     

Estimation and interpretation of models of absolute risk from epidemiologic data,including family-based studies

Absolute risk is the chance that a person with given risk factors and free of the disease of interest at age a will be diagnosed with that disease in the interval (a, a + τ]. Absolute risk is sometimes called cumulative incidence. Absolute risk is a “crude” risk because it is reduced by the chance that the person will die of competing causes of death before developing the disease of interest. Cohort studies admit flexibility in modeling absolute risk, either by allowing covariates to affect the cause-specific relative hazards or to affect the absolute risk itself. An advantage of cause-specific relative risk models is that various data sources can be used to fit the required components. For example, case–control data can be used to estimate relative risk and attributable risk, and these can be combined with registry data on age-specific composite hazard rates for the disease of interest and with national data on competing hazards of mortality to estimate absolute risk. Family-based designs, such as the kin-cohort design and collections of pedigrees with multiple affected individuals can be used to estimate the genotype-specific hazard of disease. Such analyses must be adjusted for ascertainment, and failure to take into account residual familial risk, such as might be induced by unmeasured genetic variants or by unmeasured behavioral or environmental exposures that are correlated within families, can lead to overestimates of mutation-specific absolute risk in the general population.     

网络游戏成瘾量表研究——事件相关脑电位辅助分析

在我国网络游戏产业发展迅猛,网民数量持续高速增长,但同时也出现了网游玩家沉迷于网络游戏中而产生心理依赖的成瘾症状.目前对网络成瘾的概念、界定指标和测量工具都存在较大争议,缺乏网络成瘾界定的系统研究.本研究在以往多种量表的基础上,采用事件相关脑电位方法,采用成瘾Stroop实验范式,找到了可以区分网络游戏成瘾者和正常网络使用者的客观电生理指标,验证了这个分类.通过对这群已经被验证了的两组被试的问卷测量,形成了"网络游戏成瘾量表",并依据测量结果,给出了推断被试是否成瘾的总分分界值.然后,采用重测信度方法,验证了量表的稳定性和可靠性.最后,用测量预留的成瘾被试,验证了"网络游戏成瘾量表"的有效性.     

语言多样性、信息获取与分析师盈余预测质量

考察了语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的影响,以及这种影响如何因员工教育水平的不同而变化.基于中国上市公司的实证检验结果显示,语言多样性显著降低了分析师盈余预测质量,但是随着公司员工受教育水平提高,语言多样性对分析师盈余预测质量的负面影响有所减弱.进一步研究发现,分析师与CEO间的校友关系增强了员工教育水平对语言多样性与分析师盈余预测准确性之间关系的正向调节作用.研究结论一定程度上丰富了分析师私有信息获取及其影响机理以及社会关系等方面的文献,而且还可帮助投资者、监管者等利益相关方更好地理解分析师行为,促进资源合理配置,增强资本市场的有效性等方面具有一定的启示意义.     

钢管自动跟踪及在线自动定长切割控制器的软硬件设计

采用单片机实现了焊管机生产线钢管自动定长切割的控制，并使其具有结构小、功能强控制精度高等优点；介绍了控制器的软硬件设计思想和设计方法．