MNCs and micro-entrepreneurship in emerging economies: The case of Avon in the Amazon

This article examines the activities of multinational corporations (MNCs) in the direct sales industry through an ethnographic case study of micro-entrepreneurship in the Brazilian Amazon. In large emerging economies, intra-country heterogeneity poses challenges for MNCs. Because national trends often obscure regional variations, the case study highlights the realities of the rural Amazon, and the specific challenges and potential for MNCs. Findings from the case study support three propositions. The development of direct sales networks in remote areas facilitates: (1) additional entrepreneurship, and encourages a progression from necessity to opportunity entrepreneurship; (2) social change in gender norms, including higher level of female empowerment and decision-making within families and communities; and (3) a reconciliation of local and global values on beauty and fashion for customers, leading to stronger brand relationships. By leveraging micro-entrepreneurship, MNCs can compete with local firms, even in rural areas lacking basic infrastructure, to the benefit of communities and individuals.     

迟到的非殖民化与缅甸对英联邦的突破

战后初期,艾德礼政府在缅甸政策上并没有大的创新,仍然沿用了战时内阁的政策。缅甸总督史密斯由于在缅甸推行与昂山敌对的政策使得缅甸的局势恶化。艾德礼政府逐渐改变了缅甸政策并任命兰斯为新的总督。兰斯支持缅甸民族主义者的政治要求。在经过了一番迟疑后,英国政府最终同意了兰斯的建议。但是由于英国政府的迟疑不决,缅甸的局势恶化,缅甸民族主义者与英国的关系也更为疏远。这一政治局势与缅甸在英帝国战略上的次要性使得缅甸最终在英联邦外独立。     

Analysis of the human sex ratio by using overdispersion models

For study of the human sex ratio, one of the most important data sets was collected in Saxony in the 19th century by Geissler. The data contain the sizes of families, with the sex of all children, at the time of registration of the birth of a child. These data are reanalysed to determine how the probability for each sex changes with family size. Three models for overdispersion are fitted: the beta–binomial model of Skellam, the 'multiplicative' binomial model of Altham and the double-binomial model of Efron. For each distribution, both the probability and the dispersion parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously with family size according to two separate regression equations. A finite mixture model is also fitted. The models are fitted using non-linear Poisson regression. They are compared using direct likelihood methods based on the Akaike information criterion. The multiplicative and beta–binomial models provide similar fits, substantially better than that of the double-binomial model. All models show that both the probability that the child is a boy and the dispersion are greater in larger families. There is also some indication that a point probability mass is needed for families containing children uniquely of one sex.     

Financial Crisis and Sustainability of US Fiscal Deficit: Indicators or Tests?

Whether or not budgetary policies are sustainable and can be conducted without creating the potential for government bankruptcy is a central question for macroeconomic analysis. In this paper, we show that indicators and tests to assess government solvency should not be used alternatively. We lay out a simple and intuitive procedure to integrate simultaneously the results from the two approaches to fiscal sustainability. Indicators are forward looking, for they are based on published forecasts, thus reacting to a set of current and expected future conditions in fiscal-policy making. Tests, by contrast, are backward looking, for they are based on a sample of past data. In the event of conflicting results, indicators may signal the occurrence of a structural change in policy, which may reverse the predictions of tests. Whether the results from indicators or from tests should be given priority in the assessment of the sustainability of public debt will thus depend on the structural stability of the historical data generating process of the primary surplus. Only in the absence of a structural break in the stance of fiscal policy, the potential warning predictions of fiscal indicators should be interpreted as merely reflecting transitory factors to be eventually reversed. An application to U.S. post-World War II historical data, from 1948 to 2016, and forecasts, from 2017 to 2027, demonstrates the empirical relevance of the proposed comprehensive approach and helps add new insights to the evaluation of the U.S. fiscal position. In particular, our results suggest that the potentially unsustainable course of U.S. fiscal policy from 2008 onwards, advocated by the use of fiscal indicators, reflects systematic—not cyclical—factors. The main policy implication is that deficit increases in the U.S. from 2008 onwards cannot be regarded as a transitory phenomenon and hence do entail an urgent need for a structural change in the future stance of budgetary policy.     

《说文解字》禾部字的文化阐释

《说文解字》禾部字承载了中华民族丰富的历史文化信息。凭借对《说文解字》禾部字的系统梳理分析,再现了其所反映的复杂而多样的古代思想文化内涵。     

Combining answers to direct and indirect questions: An implementation of Kuk’s randomized response model

Abstract

In this article, we propose a two folded approach for estimation of the population proportion of a sensitive attribute. The rationale of proposed technique is to give respondents choice if they want to avail randomized device or not. Thus, our technique is inherently capable of entertaining the responses attained through direct questioning and by employing randomization device, as well. We believe that free to choose policy will be helpful to develop a curtsy between interviewer and respondent (which is highly desirable, especially when sensitive issue is under consideration) and thus enhances the survey reliability. The proposed technique is developed for simple random sampling, at first, and then extended to stratified random sampling. The superior performance of proposed technique in comparison to the Kuk (1990 Kuk, A. Y. 1990. Asking sensitive questions indirectly. Biometrika 77 (2):436–8. doi:10.1093/biomet/77.2.436.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) method is demonstrated throughout this article. We provide algebraic, graphical and numerical evidences in support of our proposed technique. Furthermore, we also offer cost analysis considering most commonly used cost functions in the literature of survey research.     

关于企业国际化问题的探讨

企业国际化包括市场国际化与边界国际化,其对外直接投资能力是判断国际化程度的主要标志。随着经济全球化的不断深入,企业国际化内涵在不断扩展,国际化衡量标准也正在朝着更加全面、细化和量化的方向发展。就中国企业国际化总体战略来说, 面对经济全球化快速发展的复杂形势,对外直接投资应持科学、谨慎和严谨的态度。     

Appropriation et régulation des innovations biotechnologiques : pour une comparaison transatlantique

This article analyzes two biotechnological innovations — the tests of tracking the genetic risks of diseases and the transgenic organisms — and explores the controversies concerning the status of these new knowledges and the ways there are applied. It shows how these innovations were received in a different way in the United States and in France. The market regulation, which is strong in the USA is problematic in France. It is marginalized by the professional regulation in the case of the genetic tests. And in the other case it is limited by the control of the state, which constitutes some resources for the mobilization of the civil society against transgenic organisms. Finally the comparison consolidates the hypothesis of the emergence of a new regime of production of the knowledge, specified by the tension between a “market” regulation and a “consumerist-civic” regulation.     

外商对中国直接投资减撤:影响、成因及对策

外商直接投资撤退是国际经济合作中的普遍现象。投资撤退将在技术进步、产业结构、就业、国际金融等方面对东道国、特别是发展中东道国造成严重的影响。影响外商直接投资撤退的原因主要有 :政治、法律、市场、合资企业内部管理等。改革开放 2 0余年来 ,中国已成为引资大国 ,随着引资数额的增大 ,撤资事件亦有增长的趋势 ,因此 ,必须引起高度的重视 ,加强研究 ,制定对策 ,将外商直接投资撤退所造成的影响减少到最低限度。     

日本的对外直接投资动机及其变化研究

日本对外直接投资从资源型、成本型转换到目前的综合（市场＋生产＋信息）型。开拓东道国市场、建立国际性生产与流通网络、专利与信息收集以及劳动力保证与利用成为日本近年来对外直接投资的基本动机。随着近年来世界经济格局剧烈变动下的各区域区位条件以及比较优势的变化，日本对外直接投资动机的区域性差异与变化更为明显。日本对北美和欧洲等发达区域的直接投资动机的综合型特征进一步强化，对亚洲直接投资的基本动机从成本型向市场主导的复合型（市场＋生产）转换，而对华直接投资动机则处于从成本型向生产主导的复合型（生产＋市场）的过渡之中。日本对外直接投资动机尚反映出行业间的巨大差异及其变化，尤其是制造业追求建立国际性生产与流通网络的生产驱动型投资动机急剧增加。