湛江市海洋经济总产值的预测模型

运用多元回归理论,根据1990~2004年的年度数据,构建了湛江市海洋产业的总产值的预测模型,并利用MATLAB数学软件求解了预测模型,有效和系统地分析与预测了湛江未来海洋经济的发展趋势.     

江西流动人口规模的统计预测与分析

据有关数据显示,江西省目前有300多万的流动人口规模,随着经济的发展,江西省的流动人口将趋于增长。文章利用统计预测方法,从三种不同的角度预测了江西省从2005~2050年的流动人口规模,并对如何加强其管理进行了探讨。     

胡绳研究回顾与展望

学术界对胡绳的研究主要集中于其生平、学术总体定位、近代史和党史领域的贡献、马克思主义理论宣传等方面，并取得了一定的成果，但已有研究还难称系统深入。胡绳研究无论从深度还是广度上都有巨大的开拓空间，胡绳在当代学术思想史上的重要意义应该引起研究者的重视，他为我们留下的精神财富值得进一步深入发掘。     

包头市生态环境评价研究的意义及思路

论述了包头市生态环境评价、预测研究的重要意义,进行此项研究的具体思路以及研究拟解决决的问题和创新之处。     

我国OFDI与产业结构优化互动关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

对外直接投资一直以来都是我国融入世界经济的主要路径,在优化产业结构、转变经济发展模式方面扮演着重要的角色。文章首先阐释了对外直接投资优化国内产业结构的实现机制,之后选取1982—2012年我国对外直接投资存量、对外开放度、名义GNI及产业结构优化指标的相关数据,构建了VAR模型,并采用脉冲响应、方差分解和Granger检验等方法实证检验了我国对外直接投资与产业结构优化的互动关系。结果显示,我国对外直接投资与产业结构优化之间存在着长期均衡关系,并且在短期内两者呈现出相互促进的发展态势。     

跨国公司区位决定因素的变化--兼论作为东道国的发展中国家的政策思考

随着经济全球化和一体化进程的不断加快以及国际生产体系的不断完善,跨国公司对外直接投资在各国之间的分布呈不平衡的发展态势.这种地理分布格局的变化,标志着东道国投资环境以及推动国际生产区位选择的经济因素发生了改变,这反映出政策自由化、技术进步和企业战略三个层面的变化.所以,发展中东道国需要着力于产业群集、区位优势组合以及投资促进政策的发展,以便更好地吸引跨国公司和外国直接投资.     

Out-of-Sample Performance of Discrete-Time Spot Interest Rate Models

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of spot rate models in forecasting the probability density of future interest rates. Although the most parsimonious models perform best in forecasting the conditional mean of many financial time series, we find that the spot rate models that incorporate conditional heteroscedasticity and excess kurtosis or heavy tails have better density forecasts. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity significantly improves the modeling of the conditional variance and kurtosis, whereas regime switching and jumps improve the modeling of the marginal density of interest rates. Our analysis shows that the sophisticated spot rate models in the existing literature are important for applications involving density forecasts of interest rates.     

On a bayesian approach for the shiftpoint problem

Using a direct resampling process, a Bayesian approach is developed for the analysis of the shiftpoint problem. In many problems it is straight forward to isolate the marginal posterior distribution of the shift-point parameter and the conditional distribution of some of the parameters given the shift point and the other remaining parameters. When this is possible, a direct sampling approach is easily implemented whereby standard random number generators can be used to generate samples from the joint posterior distribution of aii the parameters in the model. This technique is illustrated with examples involving one shift for Poisson processes and regression models.     

Out-of-sample forecast errors in misspecific perturbed long memory processes

In this paper we examine the relative increase in mean square forecast error fro fitting a weakly stationary process to the series of interest when in fact the true model is a so-called perturbed long-memory process recently introduced by Granger and Marmol (1997). This model has the property of being unidentifiable from a white noise process on the basis of the correlogram and the usual rule-of-thumbs in the Box-Jenkins methodology. We prove that this kind of missspecification can lead to serious errors in terms of forecasting. We also show that corrections based on the AR(1) model can in some cases partially solve the problem. Received: March 15, 1999; revised version: February 14, 2000     

黔东南性别失衡人口规模的判断与预测

黔东南州作为西部欠发达省份的民族自治地区,出生性别比长期、普遍、高度的失衡已经对经济发展、社会安定造成一定影响。虽然出生性别比失衡问题得到政府和社会的广泛关注和重视,并自2004年起开展了系列治理活动,但出生性别比升高的势头并未因之而有所遏制。本文希望通过对出生性别比失衡人口规模的计算,以及预测失衡导致该州未来男女人口规模和适龄结婚人口规模差异,使人们对失衡状况与未来影响有更清晰的认识,并为进一步治理提供参考素材。