海峡两岸经济关系与经济合作发展形势评析

受国际金融危机与国际经济及海峡两岸经济形势大环境变化影响,海峡两岸贸易与台商对大陆投资呈现从大幅衰退到强劲反弹回升的发展态势,两岸经济关系发展格局尤其是台商对大陆投资策略与区域布局发生新的变化。海峡两岸经济交流与合作取得一系列新进展,大陆居民赴台旅游与两岸直航经济效果显著,大陆企业赴台投资正式启动,两岸经济关系正在迈向正常化与制度化合作的新阶段。     

基于电子渠道需求预测的渠道模式选择

本文基于Jerath等人的需求预测模型,探讨了电子渠道信息收集能力如何影响渠道成员收益及渠道总收益,并进一步分析了其对渠道模式、信息分享策略的影响。通过对模型的求解,得到了渠道成员的均衡策略及其影响因素。研究结果表明:经销商总是选择不分享私有信息,而厂商的渠道模式选择受电子渠道需求预测精度、市场波动、电子渠道潜在消费者比例等因素的影响。渠道的均衡策略有可能是既无电子渠道也无信息分享,也有可能是有电子渠道无信息分享。同时,当相关参数范围满足某些条件时,可通过协调机制使得建立电子渠道、分享信息成为新的均衡策略,并且这一策略满足帕累托优化。     

基于VAR和GM组合模型的电力消费预测

组合预测模型较单一模型具有更准确的预测精度,利用中国电力消费1978年~2007年的年度数据,将VAR模型与灰色预测的GM（1,1）、无偏GM（1,1）两种模型有机组合,建立灰色VAR组合预测模型,对2008年~2015年的电力消费量进行预测。结果表明,该模型平均相对误差为4.88%,拟合精度较高,具有较好的应用价值。     

天津高等职业教育规模预测与发展策略研究

在分析21世纪以来天津高等职业教育发展和理论推导的基础上,以灰色Verhulst模型作为预测模型,对历史数据进行了拟合,并对天津高等职业教育规模进行短期预测,分析其发展变化趋势,提出天津高等职业教育发展策略。     

中国宏观经济情境设计与路径预测

路径预测是通过构建联合置信区间来获得未来多期预测的可能范围,覆盖了中国宏观经济的可能运行路径。通过系统迭代和直接预测方法对我国宏观经济中的产出,通胀和利率进行蒙特卡洛模拟和路径预测,并在特定宏观经济情景下进行伪样本外条件路径预测。基于中国数据的蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示Scheffé方法构建的预测路径具有合理的路径覆盖范围,是判定预测不确定性的合理且有效方法,伪样本外条件路径预测显示合理的情境设计能够得出更为有效的预测路径。     

Modeling multivariate cybersecurity risks

Modeling cybersecurity risks is an important, yet challenging, problem. In this paper, we initiate the study of modeling multivariate cybersecurity risks. We develop the first statistical approach, which is centered at a Copula-GARCH model that uses vine copulas to model the multivariate dependence exhibited by real-world cyber attack data. We find that ignoring the due multivariate dependence causes a severe underestimation of cybersecurity risks. Both simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed approach leads to accurate predictions of multivariate cybersecurity risks.     

中国钢铁产业技术预测研究——基于专利生命周期分析

应用技术生命周期理论和Logistic模型,借助中国钢铁产业的专利数据对中国钢铁产业的技术创新开展技术预测研究。结果表明:中国钢铁产业专利技术发展将经历四个阶段:第一阶段（1985—2009年）为萌芽期,发展相对较慢;第二阶段（2010—2021年）产业技术进入成长期,专利技术发展速度加快,出现重大发明;第三阶段（2022—2033年）为技术成熟期,以外围专利为主;第四阶段（2033年以后）将进入衰退期,申请减少。依据产业技术生命周期阶段和国内外专利实力对比,提出了中国钢铁产业技术创新的“三步走”策略:突破核心技术,建立专利布局,国际化发展。     

Economic growth and welfare: How Foreign Direct Investment contributes to improving social order in less developed countries

Abstract

Does Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) promote development? And does it change social order? The attempt to answer these questions will always be controversial, because, first, the effects differ from context to context, and second, it is highly difficult to measure the (positive) spillovers of know-how and technology etc., as well as of contributions to enhancing social responsibility and improving the standards of living in the host country. The outcome will very much depend on how state governments, international bodies, the business world and non-governmental organizations collaborate. Likewise, interdisciplinary collaboration is required to research the issue, between well-trained economists, investment theory specialists, sociologists and ethicists. For this, our article combines a large number of arguments on market and investment theory, business ethics, John H. Dunning’s eclectic paradigm, etc. It examines whether there is practical evidence to support the assumption that doing business through FDI improves social conditions in less developed countries, and whether the logic for this to happen is rooted in ethical theory. The article contributes to insights from the appropriate sub-stream of the development, FDI and poverty/bottom of the pyramid literature, and to highlighting which trends should be followed in academic research. However, there are limitations to the article, which lie with the limitations of ethics frameworks, as these are often only constructed based on certain moral appeal, and only very few of them examine the incentive compatibility of such constructs.     

Intergenerational Issues in Long Term Planning

No abstract available for this article.     

Why Do They Leave? Factors Associated With Job Termination Among Personal Assistant Workers in Home Care

Recruiting and retaining an adequate number of personal support workers in home care is both challenging and essential to allowing elders to age in place. A mixed-method, longitudinal study examined turnover in a sample of 261 personal support workers in Maine; 70 workers (26.8%) left their employment in the first year of the study. Logistic regression analysis indicated that younger age and lack of health insurance were significant predictors of turnover. Analysis of telephone interviews revealed three overarching themes related to termination: job not worthwhile, personal reasons, and burnout. Implications of study findings for gerontological social workers are outlined.