经典信度理论和概化理论的计量学透视

从计量学的角度分析了经典信度理论和概化理论的局限、错误和无力,并重点揭示了经典理论和概化理论几个方面的问题.经典理论由于采用了相关分析进路,既无力应对多不确定度源的测量情景,也无法较好地满足实践对条件不确定度的要求.概化理论虽然可以同时考虑多个不确定度源,但由于技术上采用了方差分析进路,即使使用得当,也不能够很好地解决条件不确定度问题.     

Finite normal mixture copulas for multivariate discrete data modeling

A new family of copulas is introduced that provides flexible dependence structure while being tractable and simple to use for multivariate discrete data modeling. The construction exploits finite mixtures of uncorrelated normal distributions. Accordingly, the cumulative distribution function is simply the product of univariate normal distributions. At the same time, however, the mixing operation introduces association. The properties of the new family of copulas are examined and a concrete application is used to show its applicability.     

Model selection for Lévy measures in diffusion processes with jumps from discrete observations

We deal with parametric inference and selection problems for jump components in discretely observed diffusion processes with jumps. We prepare several competing parametric models for the Lévy measure that might be misspecified, and select the best model from the aspect of information criteria. We construct quasi-information criteria (QIC), which are approximations of the information criteria based on continuous observations.     

Reliability acceptance sampling plans for the Weibull distribution under accelerated Type-I censoring

Type-I censored reliability acceptance sampling plans (RASPs) are developed for the Weibull lifetime distribution with unknown shape and scale parameters such that the producer and consumer risks are satisfied. It is assumed that the life test is conducted at an accelerated condition for which the acceleration factor (AF) is known, and each item is continuously monitored for failure. Sensitivity analyses are also conducted to assess the effect of the uncertainty in the assumed AF on the actual producer and consumer risks, and a method is developed for constructing RASPs that can accommodate the uncertainty in AF.     

Exact average coverage probabilities and confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for discrete distributions

For a confidence interval (L(X),U(X)) of a parameter θ in one-parameter discrete distributions, the coverage probability is a variable function of θ. The confidence coefficient is the infimum of the coverage probabilities, inf  _θ P _θ (θ∈(L(X),U(X))). Since we do not know which point in the parameter space the infimum coverage probability occurs at, the exact confidence coefficients are unknown. Beside confidence coefficients, evaluation of a confidence intervals can be based on the average coverage probability. Usually, the exact average probability is also unknown and it was approximated by taking the mean of the coverage probabilities at some randomly chosen points in the parameter space. In this article, methodologies for computing the exact average coverage probabilities as well as the exact confidence coefficients of confidence intervals for one-parameter discrete distributions are proposed. With these methodologies, both exact values can be derived.     

Estimation of reliability of multicomponent stress–strength for a Kumaraswamy distribution

This article deals with the Bayesian and non Bayesian estimation of multicomponent stress–strength reliability by assuming the Kumaraswamy distribution. Both stress and strength are assumed to have a Kumaraswamy distribution with common and known shape parameter. The reliability of such a system is obtained by the methods of maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach and the results are compared using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for both small and large samples. Finally, two data sets are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

A new generalization of the Weibull-geometric distribution with bathtub failure rate

In this paper, the researchers attempt to introduce a new generalization of the Weibull-geometric distribution. The failure rate function of the new model is found to be increasing, decreasing, upside-down bathtub, and bathtub-shaped. The researchers obtained the new model by compounding Weibull distribution and discrete generalized exponential distribution of a second type, which is a generalization of the geometric distribution. The new introduced model contains some previously known lifetime distributions as well as a new one. Some basic distributional properties and moments of the new model are discussed. Estimation of the parameters is illustrated and the model with two known real data sets is examined.     

Vine copula constructions of higher-dimensional dependent reliability systems

Copulas have proved to be very successful tools for the flexible modeling of dependence. Bivariate copulas have been deeply researched in recent years, while building higher-dimensional copulas is still recognized to be a difficult task. In this paper, we study the higher-dimensional dependent reliability systems using a type of decomposition called “vine,” by which a multivariate distribution can be decomposed into a cascade of bivariate copulas. Some equations of system reliability for parallel, series, and k-out-of-n systems are obtained and then decomposed based on C-vine and D-vine copulas. Finally, a shutdown system is considered to illustrate the results obtained in the paper.     

Disaster response on September 11, 2001 through the lens of statistical network analysis

The rescue and relief operations triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City demanded collaboration among hundreds of organisations. To shed light on the response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and help to plan and prepare the response to future disasters, we study the inter-organisational network that emerged in response to the attacks. Studying the inter-organisational network can help to shed light on (1) whether some organisations dominated the inter-organisational network and facilitated communication and coordination of the disaster response; (2) whether the dominating organisations were supposed to coordinate disaster response or emerged as coordinators in the wake of the disaster; and (3) the degree of network redundancy and sensitivity of the inter-organisational network to disturbances following the initial disaster. We introduce a Bayesian framework which can answer the substantive questions of interest while being as simple and parsimonious as possible. The framework allows organisations to have varying propensities to collaborate, while taking covariates into account, and allows to assess whether the inter-organisational network had network redundancy—in the form of transitivity—by using a test which may be regarded as a Bayesian score test. We discuss implications in terms of disaster management.     

我国地方政府创新行为的制度分析

政府创新对于推动政府职能转变、维系政府的政治合法性具有非常重要的意义.地方政府的创新行为由于其自身的特点需要单独进行分析,其创新的原因在于激励和压力双重外力下的制度变迁,由于交易成本较低的自身特点使其具有创新的优势.而由于路径依赖因素的影响,创新过程中存在着诸多障碍.创新的模式可区分为诱致性变迁和强制性变迁两种方式,创新过程中由于经济人的特点容易出现异化的效应,而效果则应该结合政治、经济及社会三方面的因素综合予以考证.