Simulated Distribution of the Kullback-Leibler Information Measure

This paper provides the percentiles obtained by simulation of an informational test statistic. It gives evidence that the widely used chi-square approximation to this test statistic is not suitable.     

High-order extensions of the Double Chain Markov Model

The Double Chain Markov Model is a fully Markovian model for the representation of time-series in random environments. In this article, we show that it can handle transitions of high-order between both a set of observations and a set of hidden states. In order to reduce the number of parameters, each transition matrix can be replaced by a Mixture Transition Distribution model. We provide a complete derivation of the algorithms needed to compute the model. Three applications, the analysis of a sequence of DNA, the song of the wood pewee, and the behavior of young monkeys show that this model is of great interest for the representation of data that can be decomposed into a finite set of patterns.     

A Recursive Formula for the Probability of Occurrence of at Least m out of N Events

A recursive same-sign relation is derived that reduces the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N independent events to the probability of occurrence of at least m out of N ? 1 of these N events.     

How to Perform an Ethical Risk Analysis (eRA)

Ethical analysis is often needed in the preparation of policy decisions on risk. A three‐step method is proposed for performing an ethical risk analysis (eRA). In the first step, the people concerned are identified and categorized in terms of the distinct but compatible roles of being risk‐exposed, a beneficiary, or a decisionmaker. In the second step, a more detailed classification of roles and role combinations is performed, and ethically problematic role combinations are identified. In the third step, further ethical deliberation takes place, with an emphasis on individual risk‐benefit weighing, distributional analysis, rights analysis, and power analysis. Ethical issues pertaining to subsidiary risk roles, such as those of experts and journalists, are also treated in this phase. An eRA should supplement, not replace, a traditional risk analysis that puts emphasis on the probabilities and severities of undesirable events but does not cover ethical issues such as agency, interpersonal relationships, and justice.     

互联网免费服务价值核算研究

近年来,越来越多的企业选择以低廉或免费的价格为居民提供互联网服务,但产出价值和消费行为却无法在GDP核算中体现。服务业产出被低估一直为学术界所讨论,在此背景下,互联网经济下创新的免费商业模式对传统核算理论的挑战成为本文研究切入点。本文在“互联网免费服务与顾客价值”的易货交易框架下对其价值核算展开研究,将互联网免费服务价值核算与数据资产核算联系在一起,使数据成为连接互联网免费服务与国民经济核算中生产、消费、收入核算的桥梁。文章最后通过模拟核算案例表现了互联网免费服务核算对不同账户的影响,建议对住户部门的生产、消费与收入各增加一笔虚拟处理,对企业的生产、收入及资产也各增加一笔虚拟处理,且这6笔虚拟价值相等。     

中国—东盟自贸区对河北省产业结构调整的影响

区域经济一体化是当前世界经济发展的主要趋势之一,中国经济的发展不可避免地要汇入到区域经济一体化的洪流当中,2010年1月1日建成的中国—东盟自由贸易区便是一个典型。河北省是一个地理位置和经济发展状况都具有特殊性的省份,其正在进行的产业结构调整也不可避免地要受到中国—东盟自由贸易区建立的影响。本文初步分析了中国—东盟自由贸易区给河北省产业结构调整带来的影响,并提出了相关对策与建议。     

作为宪法未列举权利的学术自由——美国最高法院的判例与法理

学术自由是否是一个法律概念、一项法定权利,历来是一个问题.在美国法上,学术自由作为大学和教师管理核心学术事务的权利,是一项由最高法院创制的宪法未列举权利.美国早期的学术自由依附于契约权利,体现了一种大学内部政策,即大学管理者在规章制度范围内通过签订契约而赋予教师的自由权.在“学术自由第一案”——Sweezy案——中,最高法院援引宪法第一修正案规定的言论自由权,将学术自由提升为一项值得宪法保护的价值,并指出其基本内涵是自主决定“谁来教、教什么、怎么教、谁被教”;在Keyishian判决中,法院迸一步明确学术自由是“第一修正案的特殊关注”,将其纳入了宪法权利话语体系之中.至Grutter判决,最高法院肯定了在高等教育领域,学术自由是一项独立的、未列举的宪法权利,并可先于其他宪法权利受到保护.相应地,对大学学术性事务的决定,法院必须在宪法规定的范围内给予尊重;尊重的程度,取决于决定是由什么样的主体做出的、需多大程度的学术技能、意识形态中立与否以及是否危害到了别的权利.     

新见周静轩《秉烛清谈》佚文

新发现的周静轩《秉烛清谈》佚文,虽非原文完篇,仍弥足珍贵,对于了解周静轩其人其书不无助益。     

中美贸易摩擦对广东经济和税收收入的影响研究

为了研究中美贸易摩擦对广东省经济及税收收入的影响,探究减税降费政策进一步实施的空间,选取广东省GDP、进出口与税收数据,结合描述性统计与计量模型进行实证分析。研究认为,中美贸易摩擦对广东省的GDP与税收收入产生一定程度的影响,但是广东省的整体经济与税收收入依然保持着增长趋势;广东省的出口经济整体向好,对美出口企业和第二产业中的部分制造业受到影响。研究表明,广东省地方政府要进行合理的税收减免,降低消费税及其他小额税种的税率,落实税收优惠政策,降低企业税负促进GDP增长;坚持高水平对外开放,扶持出口企业开拓新兴市场,加大广东自贸区招商引资力度;打造科技创新平台,鼓励企业加强核心技术研发。