公司价值解析

作者认为,相对于其重要性而言,关于公司价值尤其是其定量方面的研究很不充分。作者在总结前人的研究,建立了公司价值的定量描述模型,分析了公司价值增长的类型,说明了内部融资和外部融资下公司价值的不同,进而解释了上市公司普遍存在的“规模偏好”和“圈钱偏好”。     

Nondistribution Constraint and Managerial Discretion: Disentangling the Relationship

The paper questions the viewpoint of the property rights theorists that nondistribution constraint makes nonprofit firms particularly prone to managerial shirking. The possibility that utility maximized by nonprofit managers corresponds to their firms’ missions is justified by the inability of the real-world price system to ensure the perfect match between profit maximization and utility maximization. The imperfection of this match means that some consumers’ preferences cannot be gratified through the price system and therefore require nonprofit organization. The possibility of managerial on-the-job consumption in nonprofit firms is shown to be insufficient for inferring inefficiency of their property rights structure.This research has been supported by Marie Curie Incoming International Fellowship of the Sixth Framework Program of the European Community (Contact No. M1F1-CT-2005-514036). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author only. The European Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.     

股利政策可能是无关的吗？

股利政策无关论,是现代财务理论的基础理论之一,但它实际上是不成立的：一方面,它是以循环论证为基础的,另一方面,我们可以模仿它来“证明”其他一些难以成立的无关论。进一步地,即使股利政策无关论的证明能够被接受,它也需要补充至少五个苛刻的假设前提。     

Spatial Matérn Fields Driven by Non‐Gaussian Noise

The article studies non‐Gaussian extensions of a recently discovered link between certain Gaussian random fields, expressed as solutions to stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), and Gaussian Markov random fields. The focus is on non‐Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance functions, and in particular, we show how the SPDE formulation of a Laplace moving‐average model can be used to obtain an efficient simulation method as well as an accurate parameter estimation technique for the model. This should be seen as a demonstration of how these techniques can be used, and generalizations to more general SPDEs are readily available.     

Bayesian Dividend Optimization and Finite Time Ruin Probabilities

We consider the valuation problem of an (insurance) company under partial information. Therefore, we use the concept of maximizing discounted future dividend payments. The firm value process is described by a diffusion model with constant and observable volatility and constant but unknown drift parameter. For transforming the problem to a problem with complete information, we derive a suitable filter. The optimal value function is characterized as the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We state a numerical procedure for approximating both the optimal dividend strategy and the corresponding value function. Furthermore, threshold strategies are discussed in some detail. Finally, we calculate the probability of ruin in the uncontrolled and controlled situation.     

Managing the Revenue of Sales Platforms: Insights into Service Fees

Online sales platforms have grown substantially in recent years. These platforms assist sellers to conduct sales, and in return, collect service fees from sellers. We study the fee policies by considering a fee‐setting platform, on which a seller may conduct a sale with a reserve price to a group of potential buyers: the seller retains the object for sale if the final trading price is below the reserve price. The platform may charge two types of fees as in current practice: a reserve fee as a function of the seller's reserve price and a final value fee as a function of the sale's final trading price. We derive the optimality condition for fee policies, and show that the platform can use either just a final value fee or just a reserve fee to achieve optimality. In the former case, the optimal final value fee charged by the platform is independent of the number of buyers. In the latter case, the optimal reserve fee is often a decreasing, instead of increasing, function of the seller's reserve price. An increasing reserve fee may make the seller reluctant to use a positive reserve price and hurt the platform's revenue. In general, the optimal fees are nonlinear functions, but in reality, linear fees are commonly used because of their simplicity for implementation. We show that a linear fee policy is indeed optimal in the case that the seller's valuation follows a power distribution. In other cases, our numerical analysis suggests close‐to‐optimal performance of the linear policy.     

云南人口机会窗口与人口红利收获研究

该文首先分析了云南人口机会窗口的特征和给社会经济发展带来的潜在机遇,第二部分指出由于劳动就业压力、资本市场不健全和老龄化问题突出等阻碍着我们获取人口红利,最后对收获人口红利的支撑体系进行了简要探讨。     

Determining optimal disassembly and recovery strategies

We present a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm for determining the optimal disassembly and recovery strategy, given the disassembly tree, the process-dependent quality distributions of assemblies, and the quality-dependent recovery options and associated profits for assemblies. This algorithm generalizes the one proposed by Krikke et al. (International Journal of Production Research 1998; 36(1):111–39) in two ways. First, there can be multiple disassembly processes. Second, partial disassembly is allowed. Both generalizations are important for practise.     

Selection of Prior for the Variance Component and Approximations for Posterior Moments in the Fay-Herriot Model

In the Fay-Herriot model, a prior distribution for the variance component allows posterior moments to be approximated with the Laplace method, avoiding computer intensive Monte Carlo Markov chains. The extremely skewed posterior distribution of the variance component results from the asymmetry of the parameter space with variance parameters constrained to be positive. The prior avoids the extreme skewness of the posterior in contrast to the commonly used uniform prior. With this prior, the mean squared error and coverage in the approximate hierarchical Bayes method are satisfactory when used to estimate small area means. Computation time is shorter than with Monte Carlo Markov chains. The approximations give easy interpretations of Bayesian methods and highlight frequentist properties of the parameters.     

交通方式选择与旅客时间价值研究--以北京-太原客运通道为例

从旅客出行交通方式选择入手,在综合考虑旅客收入、出行费用、出行时间、安全舒适度、服务水平等因素基础上,提出一个简化且合理的时间价值计算模型。以北京-太原客运通道为例,通过对不同收入旅客出行交通方式选择进行调查,计算出不同收入阶层旅客的时间价值。结果发现,不同收入的旅客时间价值是不同的,但不同收入旅客的每小时时间价值约等于该群体每小时人均可支配收入的50%左右。这一结论对各种交通运输工具的定价及交通资源的配置具有一定的借鉴意义。