Young,successful, precarious? Precariousness at the entry stage of employment careers in Germany

ABSTRACT

The article investigates entry-stage employment trajectories of young people in Germany, asking whether transitions into continuous employment indicate successful labour market integration. Applying a novel multidimensional approach to precariousness to individuals’ employment and household trajectories, we understand entry-stage employment trajectories holistically. The balanced-panel sample is drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel, with a focus on young men and women between 15 and 25 years of age in the first year of the sample period who had been employed at least once (n?=?1360).

Dual-channel sequence-cluster analysis reveals considerable variation in the precariousness of young people’s entry-stage employment. While almost all young men and women experience periods of precariousness, the durations vary substantially. Precarious employment or precarious living conditions frequently occur during education. Our results confirm that individuals with disrupted employment trajectories are seldom successfully integrated into the labour market and frequently experience precarious employment. In previous research, transitions into continuous employment have been understood as the hallmark of successful labour market integration. This holds true for young women but not for young men, who experienced continuous and precarious entry-stage employment. To correctly identify young men’s successful labour market integration, additional information about their employment precariousness is required.     

论陆海复合型国家发展海权的两难困境——欧洲经验对中国海权发展的启示

海权论认为,世界大国持续繁荣与安全的关键在于对海洋的掌控,而一个国家无法同时发展陆权与海权。近代欧洲陆海复合型国家的历史经验证明,一个濒海国家发展海权将不得不面对其地缘政治条件的缺陷带来的诸多两难困境。全球化的今天,中国海洋权益的维护与海上力量相对不足的不平衡状态,对发展海权的需求增大。中国要发展的海权是基于国家主权与国际海洋法基础上的合法海权,而不是近代西方列强追求的全球性霸权海权。陆海复合型国家面对的同时发展海权与陆权的两难困境．为中国的海权发展带来启示。     

通辽市二元经济现状分析

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论先验哲学的两重性

古典哲学是知识论哲学 ,现代哲学是生存论哲学。康德的先验哲学兼有古典的知论论和现代的生存论两重性。其中 ,作为纯粹理性和实践理性之中介的审美及目的论的第三批判和作为历史理性的第四批判具有突出的价值和作用     

Class of dual to ratio estimators for double sampling

The paper proposes a class of dual to ratio estimators for estimating the mean of finite population, for double sampling.     

努力改变重庆市二元经济结构

经济结构调整是深化改革中极为重要的问题之一。基于此 ,对重庆市的二元经济结构的现状、特点及改变这种状况进行了初步剖析 ,着力提出了解放思想、更新观念、城乡工业协调发展、大力推进农业产业化经营、努力增加农民收入等对策思考     

宪法修正案的改革逻辑及其证成

八二宪法的第五次修正案提出了若干新命题，在这些新命题背后隐含着中国宪法内在的改革逻辑。新时代是社会主义初级阶段理论的一部分，初级阶段理论告别了革命论，法治建设就此得以可能。初级阶段的法治是一种立法与变法的辩证结合，它需要有一个领导型政党作为人民的代表，以人民为中心，把握立法与变法的平衡。在走向世界的大背景下，构建以人类命运共同体为理念的国内与国际法体系。但是，领导型政党作为立法之上的引领方向者，必须严格自律，将外在的依法治国与内在的依规治党紧密结合。     

The two-way proportional hazards model

Summary. Survival analysis problems often involve dual timescales, most commonly calendar date and lifetime, the latter being the elapsed time since an initiating event such as a heart transplant. In our main example attention is focused on the hazard rate of 'death' as a function of calendar date. Three different estimates are discussed, one each from proportional hazards analyses on the lifetime and the calendar date scales, and one from a symmetric approach called here the 'two-way proportional hazards model', a multiplicative hazards model going back to Lexis in the 1870s. The three are connected through a Poisson generalized linear model for the Lexis diagram. The two-way model is shown to combine the information from the two 'one-way' proportional hazards analyses efficiently, at the cost of more extensive parametric modelling.     

宗族权威的变异与经纪模式的消解——20世纪上半叶四川双村二重化权力形态变迁的个案研究

宗族和村政作为中国传统村落社会的二重化权力结构和权威形态 ,在中国社会史研究中从来就是一个受人关注的焦点 ,而由杜赞奇所提出的“权力的文化网络”和“经纪体制”理论 ,在近年来则构成理解 2 0世纪上半叶中国村落社会权力结构和权威形态变迁的基础。通过对四川双村的田野调查可知 ,此一时期 ,传统的宗族和村政虽然从总体上都呈现出一种瓦解和衰落的趋势 ,但这一过程却不能被简单地理解为“权力的文化网络”瓦解或“赢利型经纪”对“保护型经纪”的替代。通过考察 ,有理由向人们提供此一时期中国村落社会权力形态变迁的又一类知识。     

“古史辨”派、“二重证据法”及其相关问题——裘锡圭先生访谈录

裘锡圭先生在古文字、古文献、上古史等领域均有很高的成就,为学界所公认。2007年3月,应文史哲编辑部之约,裘先生接受了本刊特约记者的采访。在访谈中,裘先生回顾了自己的学习和研究的历程,就"古史辨"派、上古史、出土文献研究及"二重证据法"、"五帝时代"等问题畅谈了自己的看法。他认为,"古史辨"派在对上古史认识的大方向上是正确的,在古书辨伪方面则有许多地方需要纠正;我们今天对于疑古思想和学说应持继承与批判相结合的态度。20世纪70年代以后虽然涌现了大批出土文献,但就出土文献研究而言,传世典籍以及历代学者对传世典籍的研究仍然是基础。目前中国古典学,包括出土文献研究领域存在的问题主要不在缺乏理论或方法,而在研究者往往缺乏科学的态度。必须大力提倡一切以学术为依归的、实事求是的研究态度,提倡学术道德、学术良心。