A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.     

Studying the dependence between ordinal-nominal categorical variables via orthogonal polynomials

In situations where the structure of one of the variables of a contingency table is ordered recent theory involving the augmentation of singular vectors and orthogonal polynomials has shown to be applicable for performing symmetric and non-symmetric correspondence analysis. Such an approach has the advantage of allowing the user to identify the source of variation between the categories in terms of components that reflect linear, quadratic and higher-order trends. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the study of two asymmetrically related variables cross-classified to form a two-way contingency table where only one of the variables has an ordinal structure.     

Mortality following conjugal bereavement,Belgium 1991-96: The unexpected effect of education

This paper examines excess mortality following spousal bereavement by time since bereavement, sex, age, and education. The main hypothesis challenged is that higher education buffers the harmful effects of spousal loss. Using a log-rate model, death-rate ratios (widowed/married) are estimated for 49,849 and 126,746 Belgian widowers and widows and an equal number of non-bereaved controls matched to the bereaved on their socio-demographic characteristics. The hypothesis that the more educated suffer less excess mortality is not supported. Although higher educational levels are associated with lower mortality in general, they do not alleviate the effects of bereavement. On the contrary, in the period immediately following spousal loss, the more highly educated seem to have more, rather than less, excess mortality. Three possible arguments are suggested to account for this: education-related differences in the partner-relationship, structural differences in the availability of appropriate social support, and cultural differences in potential support networks.     

青年一代社会责任感培育的实证策略与分析方案

青年一代社会责任感的培育是一个重大的社会命题,正确的实施策略是完成这一社会命题的关键。本文试图把数学概率理论和数学模型设计方法引入社会责任感的培育方案研究中,并基于实践调查基础上,以实证的方式谋求青年一代社会责任感培育的可行性策略。     

Age at First Marriage and Age at Death in the Lincolnshire Fenland, 1252–1478

In five Lincolnshire villages between 1252 and 1478 there is evidence that men and women married fairly late before the Black Death, and that by 1348/9 the Western European marriage pattern of late and prudential marriage was well established. Households were usually nucleated; husbands were on average eight years older than their wives before 1348/9, and five years older after 1348/9. Marriages were short: according to the best calculation shorter before 1348/9 than after, most often terminated by the death of the first husband, and were unlikely to produce more than three children. Since there were more males than females amongst children and young adults, many men remained unmarried, but since the death rate of women was very high, men lived longer.     

Limited information bayesian analysis of a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system

An analytical expression is obtained for the marginal posterior density for a structural coefficient in a simultaneous equations system based on a limited information Bayesian analysis. A con- ditional posterior density is obtained given reduced form para- meters. This conditional posterior density is in univariate student t form. Numerical examples suggest that the conditional density hasa tighter distribution around the posterior mean than the unconditional density when the correlation between the endo- genous variables and the structural error term is high.     

Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain:

Two diseases, osteoporosis and osteoarthritis, are responsible for a majority of the chronic musculoskeletal pain that older women experience. Osteoporosis is the metabolic bone disease most common in older women and is responsible for fractures, kyphosis, and chronic pain. Osteoarthritis, the most commonly diagnosed musculoskeletal problem in older women, causes degeneration of the weight-bearing joints in the body, resulting in limited function and chronic pain. In this paper, these and other common disorders are briefly described and typical coping strategies used by older women in pain are reviewed. In addition, potential multidisciplinary treatment regimens are discussed.     

Towards a Discursive Analytics of Movement: On the Making and Unmaking of Movement as an Object of Knowledge

This paper takes as its point of departure the expanding scholarly interest in issues of mobility and movement. It argues that movement is not only a physical activity which is entangled in power and meaning but is fundamentally discursively constituted. Through discussions of theory and of three examples taken from the Danish media, it is shown that the study of movement cannot be separated from that of discursive power. Access to and control over physical movement is unequally distributed. However, so is access to and control over assessing which activities can meaningfully be given the label ‘movement’ in the first place. Understanding movement in this way leads us to ask how various activities are given the status of ‘movement’, as well as how they are given meaning and importance, by whom and with what consequences. This involves asking how the poles between which movement takes place are themselves identified; how the distinction and the relationship between inside and outside are designated; and how distinctions between movement and stasis inform political and cultural struggle.