Gesellschafterausstieg in großen Familienunternehmen

Zusammenfassung  Dieser Beitrag befasst sich mit dem Ausstieg von Gesellschaftern aus Familienunternehmen als bedeutendes Corporate Governance-Problem. Im Mittelpunkt steht die Untersuchung der Wirkung von Ausstiegsmotiven, Rahmenbedingungen sowie Ausstiegsbarrieren auf die Belastung von Unternehmen und Familie durch den Gesellschafterausstieg. Eine explorative empirische Untersuchung von 55 gro?en deutschen Familienunternehmen liefert Ans?tze für eine Organisationstheorie des Familienunternehmens und für praktische Empfehlungen bei der Gestaltung von Satzung und Ausstiegsverhandlung.

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Summary  This article deals with the exit of shareholders in family owned businesses as an important corporate governance problem. We mainly analyse the effect of exit motivations, exit conditions, and barriers to exit on the exit’s burden for the company and the family. An explorative empirical study of 55 large German family owned businesses comes up with ideas for an organization theory of family owned businesses as well as some practical recommendations for statutes and exit negotiations.

     

Rendite und Kapitalkosten

Zusammenfassung  Zur Bewertung von Investitionsprojekten mit mehrperiodigen Zahlungen werden die erwarteten Zahlungen mit geeigneten Kapitalkosten diskontiert. In dieser Arbeit wird gezeigt, dass die erwarteten einperiodigen Renditen nur unter bestimmten Annahmen die geeigneten Kapitalkosten darstellen. Wenn zwischen den einperiodigen Renditen Autokorrelation auftritt, ist ein zus?tzlicher Korrekturterm bei der Ermittlung der Kapitalkosten zu berücksichtigen. Im Falle unkorrelierter Renditen entspricht der stochastische Prozess der Renditen dem Prozess der Risikoaufl?sung.

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Summary  In this paper it is argued that the discount rates used for the computation of the present values of an investment project with cash-flows to be realized over several years have to be adjusted when the one-period returns of the investment project are autocorrelated. The formula of the correct discount rate is deduced. In the case of uncorrelated returns of the investment, the stochastic process of the returns and of the cost of capital are closely related to the process of the arrival of information over time.

Ich danke zwei anonymen Gutachtern für wertvolle Verbesserungsvorschl?ge an einer früheren Version des Aufsatzes sowie dem Verein zur F?rderung der Zusammenarbeit zwischen Lehre und Praxis am Finanzplatz Hannover e.V. für seine Unterstützung.     

中国A股公司市盈率、市净率与ROE水平的关系研究

本文利用沪深两市1996年至2002年A股公司的数据,全面系统地研究了ROE水平与市盈率、市净率间的关系,分析了市盈率和市净率作为估值标准的合理性问题.检验结果表明,市净率与ROE水平间是非单调的函数关系,合理地反映了不同ROE水平公司未来业绩、风险和净资产的质量等基本面因素,是理想的估值标准;而市盈率受盈余管理影响很大,不是恰当的估值标准.     

一类特殊模的自同态环

本文讨论了相对投射模的自同态环,得出了M一投射模P的Jacobson根为其小子模且P直不可分解时,其自同态环是局部环.     

碳正离子多重反应性的讨论

碳正离子是缺电子的活性中间体,易自身或与其他分子或负离子发生多种类型的反应．本文讨论了碳正离子的多重反应性能．     

Empirical information criteria for time series forecasting model selection

In this article, we propose a new empirical information criterion (EIC) for model selection which penalizes the likelihood of the data by a non-linear function of the number of parameters in the model. It is designed to be used where there are a large number of time series to be forecast. However, a bootstrap version of the EIC can be used where there is a single time series to be forecast. The EIC provides a data-driven model selection tool that can be tuned to the particular forecasting task.

We compare the EIC with other model selection criteria including Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Schwarz’s Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The comparisons show that for the M3 forecasting competition data, the EIC outperforms both the AIC and BIC, particularly for longer forecast horizons. We also compare the criteria on simulated data and find that the EIC does better than existing criteria in that case also.     

Evaluating lifetime performance for the Pareto model with censored and imprecise information

A lifetime capability index L _tp has been proposed to measure the business lifetime performance, wherein output lifetime measurements are assumed to be precise from the Pareto model with censored information. In the present study, we study a more realistic situation where the lifetime output data are imprecise. The approach developed by Buckley [Fuzzy system, Soft Comput. 9 (2005), pp. 757–760; Fuzzy statistics: Regression and prediction, Soft Comput. 9 (2005), pp. 769–775] incorporated with some extensions (a set of confidence intervals, one on top of the other), is used to construct the triangular-shaped fuzzy number for the fuzzy estimate of the L _tp. With the sampling distribution of the unbiased estimator of the L _tp, two useful fuzzy inference criteria, its critical value and fuzzy p-value are obtained to assess the lifetime performance. The presented methodology can handle the lifetime performance assessment on the condition that sample lifetime data are involved with imprecise information, classifying the lifetime performance with the three-decision rule. With different preset requirements and a certain degree of imprecise data, we also develop a four quadrants decision-making plot where managers can easily simultaneously visualize several important features of lifetime performance for making a decision. An example of business lifetime data is given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method.     

Estimates of the quantiles of kendall's partial rank correlation coefficient

The sampling distribution of kendall's partial rank correlation coefficient, J_xy?z, is not known for N>4, where N is the number of subjectts. Moran (1951) used a direcr conbinatorial method to obtain the distribution of J_xy?z forN=4; however, ten minor computationa; errors in his Table 2apparently resulted in how erroneous entries for his frequency table. Since the parctial limits of the direct combinatorial approach have been reached once N>4, the first main objective of this paper was to obtain the exact distribution of J_xy?z for N=f, 6, and 7 using an electronic computer. The second was to use the Monte Carlo method to obtain reliable estimates of the quantiles of J_xy?z for N=8,9,...,30     

Addition of runs to an s-level supersaturated design

The purpose of the present work is to extend the work of Gupta et al. (2010) to s  -level column balanced supersaturated designs. Addition of runs to an existing E(χ²)-optimal$E({\chi }^2)\mathrm{-}\mathrm{optimal}$ supersaturated design and to study the optimality of the resulting design is an important issue. This paper considers the study of the optimality of the resulting design. A lower bound to E(χ²)$E({\chi }^2)$ has been obtained for the extended supersaturated designs. Some examples and a small catalogue of E(χ²)-optimal$E({\chi }^2)\mathrm{-}\mathrm{optimal}$ supersaturated designs are also presented.     

Unaliasing of aliased line component frequencies

This paper is concerned with undoing aliasing effects, which arise from discretely sampling a continuous‐time stochastic process. Such effects are manifested in the frequency‐domain relationships between the sampled and original processes. The authors describe a general technique to undo aliasing effects, given two processes, one being a time‐delayed version of the other. The technique is based on the observations that certain phase information between the two processes is unaffected by sampling, is completely determined by the (known) time delay, and contains sufficient information to undo aliasing effects. The authors illustrate their technique with a simulation example. The theoretical model is motivated by the helioseismological problem of determining modes of solar pressure waves. The authors apply their technique to solar radio data, and conclude that certain low‐frequency modes known in the helioseismology literature are likely the result of aliasing effects. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 116–135; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada