基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型

B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium.     

政府绩效评估指标体系三维立体逻辑框架的结构与运用研究

政府绩效评估指标体系设计不是若干指标的随意堆砌或简单罗列.基于绩效维度、层级特征、样本属性三维构建了一个政府绩效评估指标体系设计立体逻辑框架.通过对湖南省政府绩效评估指标体系的实际运用,发现该框架能针对样本政府的实际情况与层级特征,设计出一套科学、合理的评估指标体系.同时,"原语合成法"、信度效度测量和科学的指标设计流程在政府绩效评估指标体系三维立体逻辑框架的运用中发挥着重要的作用.     

Sublinear time width-bounded separators and their application to the protein side-chain packing problem

Given d>2 and a set of n grid points Q in ℜ ^d , we design a randomized algorithm that finds a w-wide separator, which is determined by a hyper-plane, in sublinear time such that Q has at most points on either side of the hyper-plane, and at most points within distance to the hyper-plane, where c _d is a constant for fixed d. In particular, c ₃=1.209. To our best knowledge, this is the first sublinear time algorithm for finding geometric separators. Our 3D separator is applied to derive an algorithm for the protein side-chain packing problem, which improves and simplifies the previous algorithm of Xu (Research in computational molecular biology, 9th annual international conference, pp. 408–422, 2005). This research is supported by Louisiana Board of Regents fund under contract number LEQSF(2004-07)-RD-A-35. The part of this research was done while Bin Fu was associated with the Department of Computer Science, University of New Orleans, LA 70148, USA and the Research Institute for Children, 200 Henry Clay Avenue, New Orleans, LA 70118, USA.     

论我国农村产业结构的合理调整

农村产业结构的合理调整,是农村经济改革进一步深化的必然要求,为了合理调整和优化农村产业结构,就必须在确定正确的调整目标、掌握有效的调整方法的基础上,选择切实可行的调整思路。     

屈原与中华民族精神

从中华民族精神的形成与发展的角度,结合古今历史事实尤其是当代老舍、陈祖芬等文学作家及其作品,论述了屈原与中华民族精神的密切关系,说明屈原在继承刚健自强这一源于孔子的核心民族精神的同时,又着重在爱国与重德这两个层面上的有所补充和发展。因此,屈原及其作品,不仅对中国文学尤其是浪漫主义文学产生了巨大的深远影响,而且在塑造中华民族精神与民族文化──心理结构的过程中发挥了不可替代的重要作用。     

应重视开发英语教学中的非智力因素

重视开发学生的非智力因素,是英语教学中一个不可忽视的问题．人的非智力因素主要包括情感、意志和注意力等三个方面的因素,它们对学生能否学好英语起着重要的作用．     

The Equivalence of Neyman Optimum Allocation for Sampling and Equal Proportions for Apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives

We present a surprising though obvious result that seems to have been unnoticed until now. In particular, we demonstrate the equivalence of two well-known problems—the optimal allocation of the fixed overall sample size n among L strata under stratified random sampling and the optimal allocation of the H = 435 seats among the 50 states for apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives following each decennial census. In spite of the strong similarity manifest in the statements of the two problems, they have not been linked and they have well-known but different solutions; one solution is not explicitly exact (Neyman allocation), and the other (equal proportions) is exact. We give explicit exact solutions for both and note that the solutions are equivalent. In fact, we conclude by showing that both problems are special cases of a general problem. The result is significant for stratified random sampling in that it explicitly shows how to minimize sampling error when estimating a total T_Y while keeping the final overall sample size fixed at n; this is usually not the case in practice with Neyman allocation where the resulting final overall sample size might be near n + L after rounding. An example reveals that controlled rounding with Neyman allocation does not always lead to the optimum allocation, that is, an allocation that minimizes variance.     

高校无形资产管理存在的问题与对策——以C大学为例

我国高校无形资产管理存在重有形轻无形、无形资产流失严重、科技成果转化率低、无形资产效益低下、人力型无形资产管理不善等问题。要解决这些问题,一是增强无形资产保护意识;二是建立专门的无形资产管理机构;三是建立有利于维护高校无形资产权益的管理制度;四是开展无形资产评估,建立无形资产账户;五是积极开展对外宣传,扩大校誉,营造良好的办学环境。