中国人口变动调查的自加权抽样设计

自加权分层多阶段抽样设计具有三大特征：一为除第一阶抽样外其余各阶抽样的样本量均为常数，二为样本量按照各层的最终单元数量在各层比例分配，三为前几阶采用抽样而最后一阶采用放回或不放回的简单随机抽样。根据上述三个特征设计了中国人口变动调查的自加权抽样设计。     

Additive risk model with case-cohort sampled current status data

Two-phase stratified sampling has been extensively used in large epidemiologic studies as a way of reducing costs associated with assembling covariate histories and enlarging relative sample sizes of the most informative subgroups. In this article, we investigate case-cohort sampled current status data under the additive risk model assumption. We describe a class of estimating equations, each depending on a different prevalence ratio estimate. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and inference based on the “m out of n” nonparametric bootstrap are investigated. A small simulation study is employed to evaluate the finite sample performance and relative efficiency of the proposed estimators.     

Distance sampling as an effective method for monitoring feral pigeon (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Columba livia</Emphasis> f. <Emphasis Type="Italic">domestica</Emphasis>) urban populations

Current methods for estimating feral pigeon (Columba livia f. domestica) population size and for monitoring population trends are mainly based on indices, which according to the current literature on wildlife census methods often produce biased results. Distance Sampling techniques have never been used in this context, even though they could theoretically produce absolute abundance estimates at relatively low costs. The aim of this paper was to investigate the performance of Distance Sampling to census feral pigeons, and to compare these results with those obtained by using Quadrate Counts, a widespread method for monitoring these birds. Surveys were performed in Pisa (Italy) in two different periods of the year 2004 (end of January–beginning of February, and November), which correspond to minimum (January–February) and maximum (November) numbers for pigeon populations. We considered 40 line transects each about 250 m long for Distance Sampling, and 40 250 × 250 m cells for Quadrate Counts. In both cases, sampling units were randomized in a stratified design. In contrast to Quadrate Counts, Distance Sampling detected the predicted increase of abundance from January–February to November with an acceptable precision and no increase of costs per survey. Even though the possible biases (due to the not rigorously random distribution of transects and to the spiked nature of collected distance data) should be further investigated, results suggest that Distance Sampling is a viable and efficient alternative to the traditional methods used to estimate feral pigeons population size and to monitor trends.     

自学考试试卷的统计分析

对自学试卷进行统计分析的目的是评价试卷的质量和使考生获得各种信息.这对提高考生的考试质量和达到自学考试的教育目标具有重要意义.该文阐述了自学考试试卷统计分析:考试成绩分布的统计估计、试题的难度及区分度分析、考试的信度与效度分析等.     

数据可回溯时两个不同时刻抽样的最优拼配

对某一总体,在两个不同时刻进行抽样时,考虑到前时刻调查过的单位被保留下来,调查费用一般较低这一因素,对数据可回溯情形,本文在抽样设计效果的综合评价原则下,给出了现时刻抽样时样本的最优拼配。     

A new ranked set sample estimator of variance

Summary. We develop an unbiased estimator of the variance of a population based on a ranked set sample. We show that this new estimator is better than estimating the variance based on a simple random sample and more efficient than the estimator based on a ranked set sample proposed by Stokes. Also, a test to determine the effectiveness of the judgment ordering process is proposed.     

INVERSE SAMPLING FOR DOMAIN ESTIMATION IN A STRATIFIED POPULATION

For a stratified population under inverse sampling, we propose and study an unbiased estimator for the mean of units belonging to a domain with specific features. An alternative, simpler, ratio-type estimator is also considered. Empirical studies show that strategies based on inverse sampling can be superior to a more traditional strategy based on stratified simple random sampling with a fixed number of draws in each stratum.     

面向21世纪，加强和重视劳动保护

加强和重视劳动保护,已成为21世纪劳动法律的一项重要内容。我国法律对劳动保护的科学管理、安全技术、劳动卫生方面进行了规定,针对目前我国劳动保护的现状,提出有效的劳动保护措施。     

Correlation-adjusted estimation of sensitivity and specificity of two diagnostic tests

Summary. Models for multiple-test screening data generally require the assumption that the tests are independent conditional on disease state. This assumption may be unreasonable, especially when the biological basis of the tests is the same. We propose a model that allows for correlation between two diagnostic test results. Since models that incorporate test correlation involve more parameters than can be estimated with the available data, posterior inferences will depend more heavily on prior distributions, even with large sample sizes. If we have reasonably accurate information about one of the two screening tests (perhaps the standard currently used test) or the prevalences of the populations tested, accurate inferences about all the parameters, including the test correlation, are possible. We present a model for evaluating dependent diagnostic tests and analyse real and simulated data sets. Our analysis shows that, when the tests are correlated, a model that assumes conditional independence can perform very poorly. We recommend that, if the tests are only moderately accurate and measure the same biological responses, researchers use the dependence model for their analyses.     

Minimum Size Double Sampling Plans for Large Isolated Lots

A common approach to the design of an acceptance sampling plan is to require that the operating characteristic (OC) curve should pass through two designated points that would fix the curve in accordance with a desired degree of discrimination. This paper presents a search procedure for the selection of double sampling inspection plans of type DSP - (0, 1) for specified two points on the OC curve, namely acceptance quality limit, producer's risk, limiting quality and consumer's risk. Selection of the plans is discussed for both the cases of fraction non-conforming and the number of non-conformities per unit.