公有思维定式对二十世纪社会主义运动的影响

现实的社会主义运动都发生在落后的国家,沉重的经济负担、严酷的生存压力、极大地困扰和影响了它们的运转,让它们的政权、生产力、所有制等一系列问题上难以把握和应对。整个二十世纪社会主义的实践,多拘泥于理论,偏重于形式,定位过高过全,忽略了它的客观性与复杂性,显得呆板和僵硬。     

Whom should we believe? Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

We examine the collective risk attitude of a group with heterogeneous beliefs. We prove that the wealth-dependent probability distribution used by the representative agent is biased in favor of the beliefs of the more risk tolerant consumers. Moreover, increasing disagreement on the state probability raises the state probability of the representative agent. It implies that when most disagreements are concentrated in the tails of the distribution, the perceived collective risk is magnified. This can help to solve the equity premium puzzle. We show that the trade volume and the equity premium are positively correlated.

On the emptiness of the stability set of order d

We know from Li's theorem (1993) that the stability set of order d may be empty for some preference profiles. However, one may wonder whether such situations are just rare oddities or not. In this paper, we partially answer this question by considering the restrictive case where the number of alternatives is the smallest compatible with an empty stability set. More precisely, we provide an upper bound on the probability for having an empty stability set of order d for the majority game under the Impartial Weak Ordering Culture assumption. This upper bound is already extremely low for small population and tends to zero as the number of individuals goes to infinity.     

On the Owen Set of Transportation Solutions

This paper presents an axiomatic characterization of the Owen set of transportation games. In the characterization we use six properties including consistency (CONS2) and splitting and merging (SM) which are firstly proposed and defined for this setup in the present paper.     

The Estimation of Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models

Watanabe estimated the dynamic bivariate mixture models introduced by Tauchen and Pitts and modified by Andersen using a Bayesian method via Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Based on a maximum likelihood method via efficient importance sampling, Liesenfeld and Richard obtained estimates that are significantly different from those of Watanabe. This note corrects the error in the multimove sampler used by Watanabe and reproduces all analyses in the work of Watanabe using a corrected multimove sampler. The estimates using the correct multimove sampler are found to be close to those obtained by Liesenfeld and Richard.     

两个有限群子群指数之集相等的几个充分条件

讨论了子群指数之集的性质以及给出了两个有限群子群指数之集相等的充分条件.     

Likelihood Inference for Unions of Interacting Discs

Abstract. This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ‐grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analysing Peter Diggle's heather data set, where we discuss the results of simulation‐based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models.     

从绍兴文理学院学生五项素质追踪研究看当代大学生的身体素质

通过绍兴文理学院97级学生1026人两次的五项达标成绩的追踪研究,发现五个项目不同分数段的敏感性存在着一定的差异,大学生的体质提高与体育教育有密切关系,同时也与五项素质达标有一定的相关性.     

Testing Target-Zone Models Using Efficient Method of Moments

The objectives of this article are threefold—(1) to test target-zone models using more efficient and direct econometric methodology than previous research, (2) to identify an implicit band, if it exists, from observed data and to test target-zone models based on the estimated implicit band rather than the stated official band, and (3) to examine whether the exchange rate can be modeled as a managed float system with a central parity that lacks a band. We find strong evidence that a model with intramarginal intervention and a narrower implicit (unofficial) band can describe the dynamics of the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate from January 1, 1987–July 30, 1993.     

ON SOME OPTIMALITY PROPERTIES OF FISHER-RAO SCORE FUNCTION IN TESTING AND ESTIMATION

The score function is associated with some optimality features in statistical inference. This review article looks on the central role of the score in testing and estimation. The maximization of the power in testing and the quest for efficiency in estimation lead to score as a guiding principle. In hypothesis testing, the locally most powerful test statistic is the score test or a transformation of it. In estimation, the optimal estimating function is the score. The same link can be made in the case of nuisance parameters: the optimal test function should have maximum correlation with the score of the parameter of primary interest. We complement this result by showing that the same criterion should be satisfied in the estimation problem as well.