On the coase theorem and coalitional stability: the principle of equal relative concession

The Coase theorem is argued to be incompatible with bargaining set stability due to a tension between the grand coalition and sub-coalitions. We provide a counter-intuitive argument to demonstrate that the Coase theorem may be in complete consonance with bargaining set stability. We establish that an uncertainty concerning the formation of sub-coalitions will explain such compatibility: each agent fears that others may `gang up' against him and this fear forces the agents to negotiate. The grand coalition emerges from the negotiations if each agent uses the principle of equal relative sacrifice to determine the actual allocation. We also establish the rational basis for the choice of the principle of equal relative concession by the negotiating agents. Hence we argue that the Coase theorem will be valid even if there are stable sub-coalitions.     

Analysis of Competing Risks by Using Bayesian Smoothing

We consider the competing risks set-up. In many practical situations, the conditional probability of the cause of failure given the failure time is of direct interest. We propose to model the competing risks by the overall hazard rate and the conditional probabilities rather than the cause-specific hazards. We adopt a Bayesian smoothing approach for both quantities of interest. Illustrations are given at the end.     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

局部平稳过程、稳定过程及GARCH模型的比较研究

本文在Granger（2005）[1]研究成果的基础上对局部平稳过程的大样本性质进行了深入探讨,发现了一些颇具实际价值的理论结果,弥补了Granger（2005）仅利用预测效果标准得到金融数据生成过程的不足,进一步给出了适合于实证分析的判断金融数据生成过程的标准,并在此基础上详细讨论了局部平稳过程、稳定过程及GARCH模型在大样本情况下的区别。本文运用研究得到的结果,在非平稳框架下对中国股票市场上证180指数进行了分析,发现上证180指数收益率具有明显的非平稳特性,并在此基础上进一步讨论了中国股票市场的市场有效性问题。     

Posterior consistency of logistic Gaussian process priors in density estimation

We establish weak and strong posterior consistency of Gaussian process priors studied by Lenk [1988. The logistic normal distribution for Bayesian, nonparametric, predictive densities. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 83 (402), 509–516] for density estimation. Weak consistency is related to the support of a Gaussian process in the sup-norm topology which is explicitly identified for many covariance kernels. In fact we show that this support is the space of all continuous functions when the usual covariance kernels are chosen and an appropriate prior is used on the smoothing parameters of the covariance kernel. We then show that a large class of Gaussian process priors achieve weak as well as strong posterior consistency (under some regularity conditions) at true densities that are either continuous or piecewise continuous.     

Nonparametric curve estimation with missing data: A general empirical process approach

A general nonparametric imputation procedure, based on kernel regression, is proposed to estimate points as well as set- and function-indexed parameters when the data are missing at random (MAR). The proposed method works by imputing a specific function of a missing value (and not the missing value itself), where the form of this specific function is dictated by the parameter of interest. Both single and multiple imputations are considered. The associated empirical processes provide the right tool to study the uniform convergence properties of the resulting estimators. Our estimators include, as special cases, the imputation estimator of the mean, the estimator of the distribution function proposed by Cheng and Chu [1996. Kernel estimation of distribution functions and quantiles with missing data. Statist. Sinica 6, 63–78], imputation estimators of a marginal density, and imputation estimators of regression functions.     

Towards Enhancement of the Economy of a Thermal Power Generating System through Prediction of Plant Efficiency

The plant ‘Heat Rate’ (HR) is a measure of overall efficiency of a thermal power generating system. It depends on a large number of factors, some of which are non-measurable, while data relating to others are seldom available and recorded. However, coal quality (expressed in terms of ‘effective heat value’ (EHV) as kcal/kg) transpires to be one of the important factors that influences HR values and data on EHV are available in any thermal power generating system. In the present work, we propose a prediction interval of the HR values on the basis of only EHV, keeping in mind that coal quality is one of the important (but not the only) factors that have a pronounced effect on the combustion process and hence on HR. The underlying theory borrows the idea of providing simultaneous confidence interval (SCI) to the coefficients of a p-th p(≥1) order autoregressive model (AR(p)). The theory has been substantiated with the help of real life data from a power utility (after suitable base and scale transformation of the data to maintain the confidentiality of the classified document). Scope for formulating strategies to enhance the economy of a thermal power generating system has also been explored.     

社会过程是必然性与偶然性的统一

社会过程是必然性与偶然性的统一。社会历史过程中的偶然性与必然性的相互关系为经济落后国家提供了超越资本主义阶段的可能性,中国建成社会主义有其有利的经济、政治、思想文化和国际条件。     

Impact of Hazardous Substances Regulations on Small Firms in Delaware and New Jersey

Regulations under the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act impose significant requirements on firms handling hazardous chemicals. The nature of the regulations would suggest that small firms, because of limited resources and other structural limitations, would experience more difficulty complying with the regulations than large firms. To understand the difficulties imposed by the regulations on small firms, we interviewed ten small firms in Delaware and New Jersey, states with existing hazardous regulations similar to those being considered by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and evaluated their responses to state regulations. The impacts of the environmental regulations on the firms and on the risk levels of their businesses are discussed. Propositions for research into small firms compliance are developed. Possible means for reducing the regulatory burden on small firms while enhancing regulatory effectiveness are suggested.